2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/Z0iDo1j.gif
https://i.imgur.com/3lBPoGQ.gif

This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/LL3ZHoC.gif

It's not the shear that's the problem Stability/subsidence. Plus the Atlantic is nothing close to 2017 SSTwise. East Atlantic especially

https://i.imgur.com/y9uJ0n3.png

It’s related to all the sinking dry mid-level air and SAL. We still have a +AMO look, but once the SAL lessens we should quickly rebound.

[SFLcane]

Another reminder for all the those SAL season cancel posters.

Tropics look quiet next 2 weeks, according to models - should we cast doubt on all of those forecasts for an active season?...neither 2004/2017 had a hurricane by the end of July either and both seasons ended up with *6* major hurricanes out of 9 and 10 total canes, respectively

https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/12 ... 13699?s=21

[toad strangler]

Another reminder for all the those SAL season cancel posters.

Tropics look quiet next 2 weeks, according to models - should we cast doubt on all of those forecasts for an active season?...neither 2004/2017 had a hurricane by the end of July either and both seasons ended up with *6* major hurricanes out of 9 and 10 total canes, respectively

https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/12 ... 13699?s=21

Yep, they could look quiet for another four and it won't mean much.

[stormlover2013]

Anyone that thinks sal is going to be out there all year are clueless, we will have 5-6 names storms in August then we will be above 10 then will have 5-6 more in sept!!! It’s not even late July lol

[Hammy]

Normally I'm one of the season-cancelers (though who knows if we get to mid-August and the models still show nothing ) but I have a very uneasy gut feeling about this season and all the indicators seem like they're pointing to something that would back it up. The CFS has been off and on with activity (as it is every year) but while it went in and out as to whether we'd have any major hurricanes last year, it's been very consistent in showing at least one major in the Gulf, (or into Florida, it varies), one or two into the East Coast, and at least one going through the northeast Caribbean or near.

[NDG]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/Z0iDo1j.gif
https://i.imgur.com/3lBPoGQ.gif

This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/LL3ZHoC.gif

It's not the shear that's the problem Stability/subsidence. Plus the Atlantic is nothing close to 2017 SSTwise. East Atlantic especially

https://i.imgur.com/y9uJ0n3.png

The differences are minor.
2017 also had plenty of SAL outbreaks because the Atlantic MDR didn't really got going until late August.

[toad strangler]

Normally I'm one of the season-cancelers

LOL

Here's a bone for ya

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1282491270305329153

[AnnularCane]

Normally I'm one of the season-cancelers (though who knows if we get to mid-August and the models still show nothing ) but I have a very uneasy gut feeling about this season and all the indicators seem like they're pointing to something that would back it up. The CFS has been off and on with activity (as it is every year) but while it went in and out as to whether we'd have any major hurricanes last year, it's been very consistent in showing at least one major in the Gulf, (or into Florida, it varies), one or two into the East Coast, and at least one going through the northeast Caribbean or near.

Even if the models did show nothing in mid-August, I'd still be hesitant about cancelling the season. I mean, I think we've (maybe including me? Or not? ) been fooled by that kind of thing before and made to look silly.

Post number 1776.

[Visioen]

Yeah all those season cancel posts because of SAL are getting annoying. I think I've seen at least 2 of them on the last 30 pages.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah all those season cancel posts because of SAL are getting annoying. I think I've seen at least 2 of them on the last 30 pages.

Large SAL outbreaks should be reduced a good deal now that moisture and some rain have spread north into the SAL producing regions in the past week.

of course, it wont stop them. but the larger prolonged outbreaks are likley done for the season. back to the more periodic flow.

[gatorcane]

Normally I'm one of the season-cancelers

LOL

Here's a bone for ya

http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1282491270305329153?s=20

Indeed, like I mentioned, global cyclone activity is down this year so far. It could be the Atlantic ends up not as hyperactive as we think this year.

Checking the models, zippo in the Western Pacific for the foreseeable future.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1282651919203422210

[TheStormExpert]

Normally I'm one of the season-cancelers

LOL

Here's a bone for ya

http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1282491270305329153?s=20

Indeed, like I mentioned, global cyclone activity is down this year so far. It could be the Atlantic ends up not as hyperactive as we think this year.

Checking the models, zippo in the Western Pacific for the foreseeable future.

That or all the energy focuses in the Atlantic. I’m going with the latter.

[aspen]

Global TC activity is reminding me a bit of 2017: multiple early season low-ACE storms in the Atlantic, and a lackluster Pacific overall. The big difference is that the EPac was still rather active (although not very memorable), and this year, TC activity in the Northern Hemisphere has been even lower with even more systems popping up in the Atlantic. So far, the outcome of 2020 is looking similar to that of 2017 as well: a very active Atlantic during ASO and low/unmemorable activity in both Pacific basins, although the difference this year will likely be more pronounced. I wouldn’t be surprised if both the WPac and EPac seasons are among the least active on record, and the Atlantic season is among the most active.

[SFLcane]

Worrisome steering pattern in place should it continue.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1282683845339500547

[supercane4867]

I believe the last time when all 3 major NHEM basins had one of their least active seasons simultaneously is 1977. While only 6 named storms developed in the Atlantic, the season featured CAT5 Hurricane Anita which is also the strongest NHEM cyclone of that year.

[TheStormExpert]

I believe the last time when all 3 major NHEM basins had one of their least active seasons simultaneously is 1977. While only 6 named storms developed in the Atlantic, the season featured CAT5 Hurricane Anita which is also the strongest NHEM cyclone of that year.

What about 2013?

[supercane4867]

I believe the last time when all 3 major NHEM basins had one of their least active seasons simultaneously is 1977. While only 6 named storms developed in the Atlantic, the season featured CAT5 Hurricane Anita which is also the strongest NHEM cyclone of that year.

What about 2013?

Both WHEM basins were uneventful but WPAC was fairly active. Remember Typhoon Haiyan occurred in 2013.

[TheStormExpert]

I believe the last time when all 3 major NHEM basins had one of their least active seasons simultaneously is 1977. While only 6 named storms developed in the Atlantic, the season featured CAT5 Hurricane Anita which is also the strongest NHEM cyclone of that year.

What about 2013?

Both WHEM basins were uneventful but WPAC was fairly active. Remember Typhoon Haiyan occurred in 2013.

Yeah I remember Haiyan but that was later in the year. I don’t recall anything else of significance.

[jaxfladude]

What in 2020 a quiet hurricane season in terms of impacts threats etc finally some good news....or another 2020 bad things yet to come?

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