2020 EPAC Season

[NDG]

Like many have mentioned conditions in the EPAC are not the best this year thus why systems have been struggling.
Windshear is anomalous from the east which is fairly normal during La Nina years and -PDOs.

As you can see compared to this same time last year UL winds environment is totally different.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/u3IUGN0.gif[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tYUojS3.gif[url]

The 2019 season was limited severely by strong easterly shear.

Compared to this year conditions were better.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1282651638310699008

[Yellow Evan]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1282651919203422210

[Hurricanehink]

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1282651919203422210?s=21

IDK, it’s quite a while from Ignacio 03’s record late date of 8/24 for that seasons’s first hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1283010890288308224

[MarioProtVI]

With the demise of 06E and how horrible conditions the EPac is currently on pace to have its least active season since 2010, especially with the chart YE posted above. I do not see the EPac getting above 50 ACE if things continue the way they are now, which seems likely. Wouldn’t be surprised if this season may mark a transition or switch to -PDO as a very faint signature can be seen in SSTAs. My expected numbers are 10-4-0 with a C2 peak as the strongest at this point (basically 2010 with 2003/2013 quality)

[aspen]

With the demise of 06E and how horrible conditions the EPac is currently on pace to have its least active season since 2010, especially with the chart YE posted above. I do not see the EPac getting above 50 ACE if things continue the way they are now, which seems likely. Wouldn’t be surprised if this season may mark a transition or switch to -PDO as a very faint signature can be seen in SSTAs. My expected numbers are 10-4-0 with a C2 peak as the strongest at this point (basically 2010 with 2003/2013 quality)

This suggests my worst fear will come to fruition: the Atlantic will call out “Marco”, but the EPac will never respond with “Polo”.

All jokes aside, this is shaping up to be a pathetic season, especially compared to the last time this name list was used.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
from this system in a few days, and some slight development will be
possible over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[EquusStorm]

Out of six tropical cyclones, only three named storms, and TWO of those were 40mph tropical storms for just two advisories

[Yellow Evan]

Seasons like this make you really appreciate even years like 2017 and 2019.

[aspen]

Seasons like this make you really appreciate even years like 2017 and 2019.

Neither were as memorable as the previous years, but at least 2017 had another extremely active July, and 2019 had a 135 kt Cat 4 alongside a solar eclipse. 2020 looks to be full of weak, sloppy, struggling, and/or short lived systems.

[Kingarabian]

For your entertainment...
00z Euro:




00z GFS:


GFS showing development in 48 hours but this year, we cant trust the models past 18 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

FWIW there is a small CCKW passing through so I wouldn't rule out another TD or two.

[storminabox]

Seasons like this make you really appreciate even years like 2017 and 2019.

At this point, I would love another 2019, which is something that I thought I would never say.

[TheStormExpert]

How much longer do you think the GFS will continue to spawn phantom hurricanes in the East Pacific?

[Kingarabian]

How much longer do you think the GFS will continue to spawn phantom hurricanes in the East Pacific?

Forever and ever.

[Yellow Evan]

How much longer do you think the GFS will continue to spawn phantom hurricanes in the East Pacific?

Until there's a coronavirus vaccine.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity has increased this morning in association with a
tropical wave located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward, and some development is possible late this
weekend and early next week before it moves into less favorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

EPS showing potential mischief for Hawaii. Not putting much (if any) stock into it as the Euro and EPS have been showing phantoms.