2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

The only thing holding that back is Climo.

Everything else is pretty much set up for something to form. Shear will be pretty light once it splashes, dry air will be moderate but nothing like the prior days and will most likely be pouch protected.

[aspen]

The strong AEW/weak TC still appears in the 8-10 day range in the 18z GFS run. This might be the AEW that is spawning the system that the CFS has been showing for the first week of August. At this point, I have no idea what could become of it.

[Ubuntwo]

The strong AEW/weak TC still appears in the 8-10 day range in the 18z GFS run. This might be the AEW that is spawning the system that the CFS has been showing for the first week of August. At this point, I have no idea what could become of it.

This is actually an earlier AEW than the one shown to develop on the CFS. That wave emerges 2-3 weeks from now, depending on the run.

[cycloneye]

July 29. Dang.

[Kingarabian]

I remember the days when we had model storms everywhere. I guess they are getting better, dont you think?

Model storms are alive and well in the EPAC lol. Bunch of fakes in the past week.

[toad strangler]

I remember the days when we had model storms everywhere. I guess they are getting better, dont you think?

Model storms are alive and well in the EPAC lol. Bunch of fakes in the past week.

They aren't being very good role models are they

[Steve]

I agree with gatorcane that Florida probably will not see a storm coming in the the east since the Bermuda high been non existent this summer. Things could change come August with the steering flow with the Bermuda high stronger than it is now.

It's not the only controlling factor on what hits Florida and from where. I'm sure you've been looking at the models along the way and satellites and see what the Atlantic looks like. The majority of the basin is under high pressure. Sometimes it splits between an Azores type high and Bermuda (split in the middle of the ocean), and sometimes it's one large mammoth ridge. What's happening in the states is similar to summer 2005 when troughs rolled by and out and ridging was coming off the mid-Atlantic Coast and reinforcing high pressure in the SW Atlantic. All it takes is something coming down while something is coming across - be it large pools of high pressure or midlevel or upperlevel finger ridges, **** goes west. If the current orientation of everything was in place in late August into September, you'd have to think watch the SE or even ESE. But movement down there can be influenced by local pressure situations.

[GCANE]

7/14 00Z CMC +150hrs
Warm core in the GoM

[GCANE]

7/14 00Z GFS
Strog LL Vort comes off Africa +162 hrs
Gets all the way to the islands at +318 hrs

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1283041901361455111

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1283041307133390849

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1283041901361455111?s=21

If we don’t see at least one TC in the MDR before August, a hyperactive season becomes quite unlikely.* Plain old “above average” will happen instead.

*Of course, among hyperactive years there have exceptions such as 2004, but these were, as mentioned, exceptions rather than the norm.

Edit: Latest ECMWF also suggests a lot of subsidence over most of the Atlantic basin during August/September, owing to rising branch over W IO/Africa.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1283041901361455111?s=21

He seems to be painting the July scenario with a rather broad brush.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1283041901361455111?s=21

If we don’t see at least one TC in the MDR before August, a hyperactive season becomes quite unlikely.* Plain old “above average” will happen instead.

*Of course, among hyperactive years there have exceptions such as 2004, but these were, as mentioned, exceptions rather than the norm.

Edit: Latest ECMWF also suggests a lot of subsidence over most of the Atlantic basin during August/September, owing to rising branch over W IO/Africa.

2010 would like to have a word with you!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1283041901361455111?s=21

If we don’t see at least one TC in the MDR before August, a hyperactive season becomes quite unlikely.* Plain old “above average” will happen instead.

*Of course, among hyperactive years there have exceptions such as 2004, but these were, as mentioned, exceptions rather than the norm.

Edit: Latest ECMWF also suggests a lot of subsidence over most of the Atlantic basin during August/September, owing to rising branch over W IO/Africa.

Actually, a strong African Standing Wave is a plus for Atlantic activity because it enhances tropical wave activity. If you look at each of the most recent hyperactive years you'll notice that they all have this in common:


Meanwhile in the less active seasons the ENSO standing wave tends to be the dominant player and the rising cell over Africa is significantly less pronounced:


I know this is a repost from the ENSO thread but if you take a look at the VP pattern over the past few months you'll see that it matches up much more with the former.

[StPeteMike]

The SAL over the MDR is already considerably smaller and less persistent than it was in June and the beginning of the month. And, as has been discussed before, storms can still spin up with SAL around it. If something does come off the African coast in <200 hrs, it has a decent environment to survive through the region, possibly develop into a TD or weak TS, and then would have a better time developing north of the islands.... if that’s the trajectory it takes.

[tolakram]

We are mixing indicators with the models thread. If your post is not about a current model run (out through day 16) please take the discussion to the Indicators thread. Thanks.

[stormlover2013]

Euro has strong wave at 240

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... ml#picture

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1283166472722878466

[Ubuntwo]

12z EPS keeps hinting