EPAC: SIX-E - Remnants

[hurricanes1234]

I'm expecting a year a lot like 2010 as well, just minus the category 5 of course.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not much else to say except...Y I K E S
A storm like this from 2014-2018 would be virtually unheard of...

[AnnularCane]

Ouch! That's gotta hurt!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the
southwest of the low-level center. However, with no appreciable
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data. The
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection. The
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours. Another
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model
guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast. The depression
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[supercane4867]

This thing is beyond pathetic.

[aspen]

I feel bad for the EPAC this year. Hopefully sometime soon we get another active EPAC year, because those are the best. Lots of fishes and just great storms to admire. 2018 was great!

2018 spoiled all of us. Coming off of a year with TEN Cat 4+ hurricanes and 317 ACE, 2019 was incredibly underwhelming despite being decently active, and 2020 is obviously not going to satisfy our hopes for another memorably active season. The WPac probably won’t either at this rate. It’ll be the Atlantic picking up all the slack of the other NH basins.

2010 revisited.

2020 is shaping up to be 2010 2: Electric Boogaloo

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Six-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the circulation of the
tropical depression is no longer closed with light and variable
winds evident on its south side. Therefore, the system no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by NHC. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the ASCAT data, which showed an area of 20-25 kt winds on the
system's north side. The remnants of the depression are currently
producing a very limited amount of shower activity, but the
associated convection could pulse up and down for another day until
the trough moves over cooler waters.

The trough is moving westward at about 15 kt and it should continue
in that direction for another couple of days until it completely
dissipates.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Call me a whatever-caster but given that my name is Doug(las) I'm glad this wasn't upgraded, lol. I'd rather have my namesake storm be a beautiful long-tracking fish major than an anemic looking thing like this, but given the state of the EPAC so far this year I don't know if that'll be the case...