

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1283124584959680535
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SFLcane wrote:Just to many '' Tutts '' right now.![]()
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https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1283124584959680535
AutoPenalti wrote:Ridge pretty much in place, will be interesting to see how this evolves during ASO.
https://i.ibb.co/hsWHRKq/gfs-z500a-atl-29.png
Aric Dunn wrote:hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.
Aric Dunn wrote:hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.
Aric Dunn wrote:hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.
toad strangler wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.
I don't think you like the Indicators thread
gatorcane wrote:Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?
TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?
I definitely don’t expect a 1933 or 2005 repeat but something similar to 2010 or 2017 I would expect. Don’t know why Joe Bastardi keeps saying a 2005 repeat, would like to see some of his reasoning behind that.
CyclonicFury wrote:It is tough to say when the so-called "lid" will come off, but it is likely at least a few weeks away. However, models often do not forecast this well in advance.
The "lid" came off rather abruptly last year. As late as August 20, an invest (97L) only had a 10% chance of development and was thought to have no chance due to moving over cooler waters. There was a lot of speculation that August could go without a tropical cyclone at all, primarily due to persistent sinking motion. 97L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chantal that night - a rather insignificant storm itself, but it started a period of activity. A few days later, a small tropical disturbance formed over the central MDR. Despite a lack of much model support, it became Tropical Storm Dorian on August 24 and a 185-mph Category 5 hurricane a week later. What happened last August is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the tropics. 2017 as well, there was season canceling on here right before Harvey regenerated.
TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?
I definitely don’t expect a 1933 or 2005 repeat but something similar to 2010 or 2017 I would expect. Don’t know why Joe Bastardi keeps saying a 2005 repeat, would like to see some of his reasoning behind that.
TheProfessor wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:It is tough to say when the so-called "lid" will come off, but it is likely at least a few weeks away. However, models often do not forecast this well in advance.
The "lid" came off rather abruptly last year. As late as August 20, an invest (97L) only had a 10% chance of development and was thought to have no chance due to moving over cooler waters. There was a lot of speculation that August could go without a tropical cyclone at all, primarily due to persistent sinking motion. 97L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chantal that night - a rather insignificant storm itself, but it started a period of activity. A few days later, a small tropical disturbance formed over the central MDR. Despite a lack of much model support, it became Tropical Storm Dorian on August 24 and a 185-mph Category 5 hurricane a week later. What happened last August is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the tropics. 2017 as well, there was season canceling on here right before Harvey regenerated.
It's been talked about in other threads, maybe this one too, but if you go back and look even 2005 after the insane July there was talks about the season be cancelled and questions of where the storms are at during the short dead period in late July through early-mid August. There was even that one poster from New Orleans who started the chilling thread of when the next storm was going to be only a few days before Katrina formed. The point I'm making is that this season cancelled stuff seems to happen every year and almost every year it bites us in the butt come peak season. Yes you can look at all the indicators that factor into hurricane season, but climatology is a powerful tool for a forecaster and climatology says this is a typical dead period for hurricane season while things really ramp up in mid to late August. Unless it's pretty obvious that El Nino and shear are going to be cause detrimental conditions for storms during the peak, it's a pretty sure bet that we will see multiple hurricanes and likely some strong ones as well. Where they go? Who knows, but at this point you can pretty confidently say there will being something spinning in the Atlantic during the peak and we all know it just take 1 bad storm to make it a bad season.
IsabelaWeather wrote:https://imgur.com/a/8Q1XyOE
This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?
400-700mb RH is moist as well.
Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out.
EDIT: why isnt the imgur link working, I had it working the other night.
Chris90 wrote:IsabelaWeather wrote:https://imgur.com/a/8Q1XyOE
This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?
400-700mb RH is moist as well.
Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out.
EDIT: why isnt the imgur link working, I had it working the other night.
Are you using your phone or a PC? Anytime I have tried to post an image from imgur using my phone it absolutely does not work, I have to use my laptop.
On a computer, right click on the imgur image and it should bring up a list of options. I believe the one you want is the BBcode. Copy that and just paste that link directly into your post and it should work.
Hope that helps.
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