2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

If will be very surprising if we do not see development out of this TW if true that such a strong anticyclonic ridge/flow develops on top or very close to it as it tracks north of the Antilles as shown by the Euro for at least 2 runs in a row now.

https://i.imgur.com/NgK2L3w.gif
https://i.imgur.com/iqJl4Np.gif

The Euro is probably underestimating development with a setup like that.

The EURO begins to deepen the vorticity on day 10 right off S. Florida. A throwback to Katrina 15 years ago maybe?

[SFLcane]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

Agreed, a couple of things popping up in the models today but i am not holding my breath. All super long-range so likely will not exist in the next set of model runs.

I am surprised you didn't mentioned that in the long range ensemble models show nothing but ridging from the Atlantic into the eastern US & SE Canada

https://i.imgur.com/EntaHzz.gif

Some here will be in for quite a surprise if the pattern
Holds.

[SFLcane]

Seeing strong waves with those kind of ULACs overhead trucking west is pretty ominous if it holds up.

[aspen]

I’m going to keep a very close eye on that AEW the Euro shows reaching the Greater Antilles in a week, because if it keeps that track, it will reach the 30+ C waters around the Bahamas and the Florida straits within 10 days from now. Anything getting into that region with such high SSTs needs to be watched for development.

[tailgater]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

[Aric Dunn]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

yes some off and on support.. i think most models lose it because of the SAL plume to the south..

it has increasing vorticity today..

and low level rotation and convergence,,

i am watching it closely.

[northjaxpro]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF




https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

There is a small 850 mb vort which is highlighted right there along and just south of the LA/MS coast this morning It is an interesting little feature.

Keep in mind we have seen these tiny vorts develop this season, in particular, Edouard.

This time of year my rule of thumb I follow is this: Any vorticity which is noticed and trackable, always merits some type of attention in the tropics!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

00Z Euro showing a strong/developing wave coming into South Florida and some suspicious waves in the MDR.

A sign things are starting to juice uphttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200716/76cb0d3d3c6d98c10f666d4d2221521a.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

A little eyebrow-raising, I must say...


It's obviously too early to worry about exact location but hypothetically, if this reaches the Bahamas/Florida Straits area, it would be encroaching some of the warmest waters in the basin:

Scattered ensemble support continues:

[Steve]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

This is the forerunner. There is some circulation in the lower levels, but I think it's mostly upper level energy. We got 2+ hours of thunderstorms last night, so that was kind of cool. HRRR 12Z 36-hour Simulated Satellite continues showing the feature dropping to the South Texas Coast in the next day to day and a half. Along the way, there are intermittent pulses. It stays concentric, but it doesn't look to work its way to the surface, or if it eventually does, it''s weakening by then.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71612&fh=2

------------------------------------
ICON 06Z continues to want to form a surface circulation just south of the LA Coast. It shows steering currents either collapsed or almost non-existent at the end of its run. The 06Z on TT only goes out 120 hours, so we'll have to wait an hour or so for the 12z to come out to see if it still wants to stall it or move it along toward Lake Charles-Beaumont or move it inland around Lafayette.



Follow the rainfall from the Keys to the Mouth of the River on Total Accumulated Precipitation
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1606&fh=30

500 Vort/height
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 606&fh=120

[Evan_Wilson]

I see the 12Z GFS has a TS entering the Gulf past south Florida on the 31st. I'm sure we can believe it. The rest of July looks more "normal" for July. No activity. Things should pick up considerably by the second week of August, as they typically do. Until then, I'll enjoy the quiet and will take some time off work.

Agreed, a couple of things popping up in the models today but i am not holding my breath. All super long-range so likely will not exist in the next set of model runs.

I am surprised you didn't mentioned that in the long range ensemble models show nothing but ridging from the Atlantic into the eastern US & SE Canada

https://i.imgur.com/EntaHzz.gif

Excuse my minimal knowledge regarding meteorology, but what would the movement of the ridge mean to steering currents?

[Frank P]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

I been watching this all morning, does hint of a slight circulation...home brewed maybe? Also perhaps a hint of a weak low level inflow from the north central gulf into the circulation

[Steve]

Agreed, a couple of things popping up in the models today but i am not holding my breath. All super long-range so likely will not exist in the next set of model runs.

I am surprised you didn't mentioned that in the long range ensemble models show nothing but ridging from the Atlantic into the eastern US & SE Canada

https://i.imgur.com/EntaHzz.gif

Excuse my minimal knowledge regarding meteorology, but what would the movement of the ridge mean to steering currents?

Depends on how it moves. Remember that flow around high pressure is clockwise. So if it moves north of a system, it blocks it. If it pulls east, it usually allows for an alleyway. There are all kind of other pressure factors as to how deep a system is (e.g. what level of the atmosphere generally controls steering) and what's north, east, south and west of a given system. I think he is alluding to is that if the entire Atlantic north of say 25 or 30N is under high pressure, that will prevent a storm from recurving or turning up and out. It's an ominous pattern for the US if there is ridging all the way to the US East Coast or farther inland.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is pretty close to developing the low near LA as it approaches the texas coast in 36 to 48 hours.

[Steve]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

I been watching this all morning, does hint of a slight circulation...home brewed maybe? Also perhaps a hint of a weak low level inflow from the north central gulf into the circulation

It's headed to South TX and is mostly in the upper levels. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps.

Wind Map
http://hint.fm/wind/

[Aric Dunn]

Any model support for the cluster of thunderstorms south of Bay St. Louis Ms. Seems to be some rotation down there. Guessing it doesn’t or someone would have posted. Working in the soup right now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIMmpxB3c30.jpg

I been watching this all morning, does hint of a slight circulation...home brewed maybe? Also perhaps a hint of a weak low level inflow from the north central gulf into the circulation

It's headed to South TX and is mostly in the upper levels. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps.

Wind Map
http://hint.fm/wind/

There is definitely a weak surface reflection/vorticity.

It would not take much sustained convcection to get this heading towards developing.

[Steve]

ICON is doubling down on Gulf of Mexico Development on Monday (4 days). While some ensembles have hinted at possible development, ICON has been on it. Will it be right or is it out to lunch? I don't know. But this is several 00z/12z runs in a row showing this solution. It stays pretty weak, but it does not make landfall instead staying off the SWLA Coast at least through next Thursday at 7am (168 hours). It still has 12 hours of plots to go.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=126

[Steve]

I been watching this all morning, does hint of a slight circulation...home brewed maybe? Also perhaps a hint of a weak low level inflow from the north central gulf into the circulation

It's headed to South TX and is mostly in the upper levels. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps.

Wind Map
http://hint.fm/wind/

There is definitely a weak surface reflection/vorticity.

It would not take much sustained convcection to get this heading towards developing.

Right. But it's mostly upper level energy.

[Aric Dunn]

It's headed to South TX and is mostly in the upper levels. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps.

Wind Map
http://hint.fm/wind/

There is definitely a weak surface reflection/vorticity.

It would not take much sustained convcection to get this heading towards developing.

Right. But it's mostly upper level energy.

And that is what it needs... the upper divergent flow may help sustain convection long enough which would increase the surface vorticity and lead to possible development.

[Aric Dunn]

juts an FYI ..

12z GFS is still showing that wave the Euro tries to develop in 5 days. GFS is just farther south and it get tangled up in the Hispaniola.

looking at GFS.. there is widespread convection in the SE bahamas associated with it..


and this is the wave/vorticity both the GFS and Euro are hinting at..

it has a pretty decent wave axis with it right now.

[Steve]

There is definitely a weak surface reflection/vorticity.

It would not take much sustained convcection to get this heading towards developing.

Right. But it's mostly upper level energy.

And that is what it needs... the upper divergent flow may help sustain convection long enough which would increase the surface vorticity and lead to possible development.

I would typically agree, but it doesn't have enough time in my opinion. HRRR has it in Deep South TX by tomorrow night. It pulses it up and down along the way.