2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

juts an FYI ..

12z GFS is still showing that wave the Euro tries to develop in 5 days. GFS is just farther south and it get tangled up in the Hispaniola.

looking at GFS.. there is widespread convection in the SE bahamas associated with it..


and this is the wave/vorticity both the GFS and Euro are hinting at..

it has a pretty decent wave axis with it right now.

https://i.ibb.co/PcSZDgR/Capture.png

Most likely split energy after interacting with Hispaniola?

[Aric Dunn]

juts an FYI ..

12z GFS is still showing that wave the Euro tries to develop in 5 days. GFS is just farther south and it get tangled up in the Hispaniola.

looking at GFS.. there is widespread convection in the SE bahamas associated with it..


and this is the wave/vorticity both the GFS and Euro are hinting at..

it has a pretty decent wave axis with it right now.

https://i.ibb.co/PcSZDgR/Capture.png

Most likely split energy after interacting with Hispaniola?

possibly. and GFS at 150 hours has it in the central gulf starting to organize.

so both global models indicating that something may try to get going with this.. just with different placement.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 174 hours with the same wave as the EURO.

[Siker]

GFS 174 hours with the same wave as the EURO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020071612/gfs_z850_vort_seus_30.png

That’s not the same wave. The wave the Euro is developing is back around Puerto Rico at this point in the run. The wave the GFS slightly develops in the Gulf is currently east of the northern Lesser Antilles.

[Ivanhater]

While the Euro does show a reflection of the wave you are pointing out on the gfs Aric, the Euro wave is the one behind it at 240 hours approaching S Florida

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 174 hours with the same wave as the EURO.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020071612/gfs_z850_vort_seus_30.png

That’s not the same wave. The wave the Euro is developing is back around Puerto Rico at this point in the run. The wave the GFS slightly develops in the Gulf is currently east of the northern Lesser Antilles.

yes it is..

Euro and GFS 72 hours GFS slightly faster.. of course offset by 12 hours from the model runs.





EURO and GFS 120 hours.






and GFS 156 hours.. Same wave GFS iis just farther south and slightly faster. easy to trace back

[Aric Dunn]

While the Euro does show a reflection of the wave you are pointing out on the gfs Aric, the Euro wave is the one behind it at 240 hours approaching S Florida

The euro also tries to develop the wave behind it.. whereas the GFS does not..

im talking about the first wave..

[Ivanhater]

While the Euro does show a reflection of the wave you are pointing out on the gfs Aric, the Euro wave is the one behind it at 240 hours approaching S Florida

The euro also tries to develop the wave behind it.. whereas the GFS does not..

im talking about the first wave..

Got you. I believe most of us this morning were referring to the latter wave at 240 hour on the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

While the Euro does show a reflection of the wave you are pointing out on the gfs Aric, the Euro wave is the one behind it at 240 hours approaching S Florida

The euro also tries to develop the wave behind it.. whereas the GFS does not..

im talking about the first wave..

Got you. I believe most of us this morning were referring to the latter wave at 240 hour on the Euro.

yeah, that is too far out to really dig into.

I was more interested in the next 5 days. both models have something. both have land interaction. but if that is just a little farther north of both of them.. then things may get interesting..

the Euro brings the wave into the northern gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

The euro also tries to develop the wave behind it.. whereas the GFS does not..

im talking about the first wave..

Got you. I believe most of us this morning were referring to the latter wave at 240 hour on the Euro.

yeah, that is too far out to really dig into.

I was more interested in the next 5 days. both models have something. both have land interaction. but if that is just a little farther north of both of them.. then things may get interesting..

the Euro brings the wave into the northern gulf coast.

I missed this wave you are looking at this morning. This one is looking interesting for sure.

[Steve]

Canadian spins up 2 or 3 systems that could be legitimate in the next 10 days. Not bad for July, and reasonable for the CMC. It's been so much better last season and this one than it has ever been. It does nothing in the Gulf after the weekend, so the ICON is mostly on its own with that coming feature.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1612&fh=66

[SFLcane]

GFS for now continues to show a dry MDR with no development.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like south of the mouth of the Mississippi is an area of increasing low level vorticity and a broad circ may be forming.

radar showing some curved inflow ( going to call them thingies) and surface obs offshore and over land indicating convergence.

going to wait and see what happens the next couple hours when the convection slides offshore before starting a new thread.

but it also looks like convection may build offshore shortly.

[Steve]

Looks like south of the mouth of the Mississippi is an area of increasing low level vorticity and a broad circ may be forming.

radar showing some curved inflow ( going to call them thingies) and surface obs offshore and over land indicating convergence.

going to wait and see what happens the next couple hours when the convection slides offshore before starting a new thread.

but it also looks like convection may build offshore shortly.

Look right behind that say south of Apalachicola for the next spin. What I can't figure out from the limited ICON products is whether or not that's the spin that it makes into a surface feature (depression?) or if that's the second in a series of 3 lows with the 3rd one becoming the one it develops. If it's this feature that I'm talking about, it would be the surge out of the tropics that will be crossing Florida over the weekend that gives it a spark. It's still alone on an island with the solution, so it's likely nothing comes out of it. But I still want to watch the features to get a better idea on how it translates its output.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like south of the mouth of the Mississippi is an area of increasing low level vorticity and a broad circ may be forming.

radar showing some curved inflow ( going to call them thingies) and surface obs offshore and over land indicating convergence.

going to wait and see what happens the next couple hours when the convection slides offshore before starting a new thread.

but it also looks like convection may build offshore shortly.

Look right behind that say south of Apalachicola for the next spin. What I can't figure out from the limited ICON products is whether or not that's the spin that it makes into a surface feature (depression?) or if that's the second in a series of 3 lows with the 3rd one becoming the one it develops. If it's this feature that I'm talking about, it would be the surge out of the tropics that will be crossing Florida over the weekend that gives it a spark. It's still alone on an island with the solution, so it's likely nothing comes out of it. But I still want to watch the features to get a better idea on how it translates its output.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

12z GFS is not too far from developing it.. it is not out of the question... if convection builds offshore and maintains even in pulsing fashion... with the pre-existing vorticity at the surface it would not take much.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like south of the mouth of the Mississippi is an area of increasing low level vorticity and a broad circ may be forming.

radar showing some curved inflow ( going to call them thingies) and surface obs offshore and over land indicating convergence.

going to wait and see what happens the next couple hours when the convection slides offshore before starting a new thread.

but it also looks like convection may build offshore shortly.

Look right behind that say south of Apalachicola for the next spin. What I can't figure out from the limited ICON products is whether or not that's the spin that it makes into a surface feature (depression?) or if that's the second in a series of 3 lows with the 3rd one becoming the one it develops. If it's this feature that I'm talking about, it would be the surge out of the tropics that will be crossing Florida over the weekend that gives it a spark. It's still alone on an island with the solution, so it's likely nothing comes out of it. But I still want to watch the features to get a better idea on how it translates its output.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

It may not be completely on it's own. The 12z Euro has a little ball of energy cross southern Florida around the same time before the bigger wave enters the Gulf. Today's Euro doesn't develop either wave, but the latter of the two brings rain for the northern Gulf.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like south of the mouth of the Mississippi is an area of increasing low level vorticity and a broad circ may be forming.

radar showing some curved inflow ( going to call them thingies) and surface obs offshore and over land indicating convergence.

going to wait and see what happens the next couple hours when the convection slides offshore before starting a new thread.

but it also looks like convection may build offshore shortly.

Look right behind that say south of Apalachicola for the next spin. What I can't figure out from the limited ICON products is whether or not that's the spin that it makes into a surface feature (depression?) or if that's the second in a series of 3 lows with the 3rd one becoming the one it develops. If it's this feature that I'm talking about, it would be the surge out of the tropics that will be crossing Florida over the weekend that gives it a spark. It's still alone on an island with the solution, so it's likely nothing comes out of it. But I still want to watch the features to get a better idea on how it translates its output.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

12z GFS is not too far from developing it.. it is not out of the question... if convection builds offshore and maintains even in pulsing fashion... with the pre-existing vorticity at the surface it would not take much.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020071612/gfs_z850_vort_scus_6.png

The 12z Euro also strengthens the vorticity of this before it moves inland into Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

Look right behind that say south of Apalachicola for the next spin. What I can't figure out from the limited ICON products is whether or not that's the spin that it makes into a surface feature (depression?) or if that's the second in a series of 3 lows with the 3rd one becoming the one it develops. If it's this feature that I'm talking about, it would be the surge out of the tropics that will be crossing Florida over the weekend that gives it a spark. It's still alone on an island with the solution, so it's likely nothing comes out of it. But I still want to watch the features to get a better idea on how it translates its output.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

12z GFS is not too far from developing it.. it is not out of the question... if convection builds offshore and maintains even in pulsing fashion... with the pre-existing vorticity at the surface it would not take much.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020071612/gfs_z850_vort_scus_6.png

The 12z Euro also strengthens the vorticity of this before it moves inland into Texas.

Yeah there is some model support.

It looks like the models are losing it because of the SAL plume to the south. the model soundings show dry air across the western gulf.

that plume appears to be moving more westerly and not lifting NW. also it is extremely high aloft at this point which would be less of an issue.

we will know by morning what becomes of it. convection over the 12 hours will be key.

[floridasun78]

we know more about the other tropical wave until end of next week see what model show

[Steve]

18Z ICON backs off a little on development but this 5 day run still shows a weak closed low off the SW LA Coast valid Tuesday at 1pm. It's a little farther NW than the last few runs. But this run ends at 120 hours, so there's no telling if it goes in or sits and spins itself out.