2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS in 30 hours..

[gatorcane]

As expected models have backed off on any hint of development of this long-range wave into the Bahamas. The season seems to be following climo as far as MDR development. So it should pickup in mid August. No hyperactive July it appears.

[Kingarabian]

As expected models have backed off on any hint of development of this long-range wave into the Bahamas. The season seems to be following climo as far as MDR development. So it should pickup in mid August. No hyperactive July it appears.

As Joe Bastardi likes to say, it's better to not make a forecast off a forecast. And I believe in that 100%. While it is tough to get storms in July, I still think we see one or more before we hit August.

[Steve]

02Z HRRR shows the Gulf low pulsing up along the TX Coast. Probably some marine warnings and some severe thunderstorm warnings will be with that, but it looks like Galveston, Houston, Port O'Connor and Corpus could see some storms out of this tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71702&fh=1

Additionally, as you can see from the end of the run, storms are firing off in the Bahamas. We'll see what happens with that down the line if it's just some tropical moisture or if it maybe can organize slightly early next week.

NAM doesn't agree with the HRRR on moisture and barely has 0.5" along most of the TX coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1700&fh=84

Meanwhile, ICON 00Z is still showing a low in the NW Gulf after this one. It's weaker, and the development is delayed a bit more. So we might get a low, but not sure about a depression. Looks to hang out around the TX/LA border for a half day or so, so most rain is probably Cameron, Vermilion and Calcasieu Parishes and probably Jefferson/Chambers Counties. Nothing extreme, but maybe a TD?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71700&fh=6

[fendie]

06Z GFS with a weak storm along the middle TX Coast next Friday.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS with a weak storm along the middle TX Coast next Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/nVKWePp.png

https://i.imgur.com/KNKkMLF.png

Watching this one closely, GOM is juiced.
Genesis next Wednesday.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS also showing a cross over early next week.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS now showing a wave train coming off the African Coast as follows:

1) AEW1: July 20
2) AEW2: July 23
3) AEW3: July 26
4) AEW4: July 31
5) AEW5: Aug 3

[AutoPenalti]

06Z GFS now showing a wave train coming off the African Coast as follows:

1) AEW1: July 20
2) AEW2: July 23
3) AEW3: July 26
4) AEW4: July 31
5) AEW5: Aug 3

AEW5 will be the one to watch.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS with a weak storm along the middle TX Coast next Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/nVKWePp.png

https://i.imgur.com/KNKkMLF.png

Watching this one closely, GOM is juiced.
Genesis next Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/BQm5Zpn.png

Looks like a possible MCV between Cuba and Keys may set this off in conjunction with a weak PV Streamer.
A complicated, meso-scale setup.
If GFS is right, I'll be very impressed.
Would obviously indicate a big improvement for the model.
No other globals are latching onto this yet.

[Steve]

Continuing beautiful job by the HRRR progging the NW/W Gulf system that was near the LA Coast the last couple days originating from a trough split last weekend near the Carolinas. System is currently pulsing up with the blowup of convection near Galveston Bay with feeder moisture just south of Morgan City. I posted Wednesday evening that this would probably be a cool looking feature as it moved toward deep south Texas. I think it hit the mark.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Additionally, the ICON has also been progging this well as compared to the other globals I have access to. But that might not be surprising considering it's a tighter resolution. Here's the HRRR 12Z IR Simulation which is running now. It shows the convection moving down the Texas Coast. Obviously this is nothing serious, but it's a cool feature.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71712&fh=1

Also of note on the HRRR is the energy starting to move across Florida. Though ICON continues to back off development, it insists on a closed low in the NW Gulf by early next week. This should bring rain into Lake Charles, Beaumont and Houston, but it's still unclear whether or not this will get classified. GFS, as per the above depiction, shows it end of next week whereas ICON has the energy piling up late this weekend and a low closing off as soon as Monday. This is all local, mild-interest stuff while we wait for the African waves.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71706&fh=6

[PTrackerLA]

Steve we didn't get much rain from this feature but it appears to have broken our heat wave for a while.

Looking at the 00z EPS and basically crickets through the next 15 days. Starting to think July will end with no more named storms. Question is when does the switch flip in August?

[Steve]

Steve we didn't get much rain from this feature but it appears to have broken our heat wave for a while.

Looking at the 00z EPS and basically crickets through the next 15 days. Starting to think July will end with no more named storms. Question is when does the switch flip in August?

Yeah, most of the heaviest convection refired off the TX Coast. We got it Wednesday night with like I said then a solid 2 hours straight of thunder and lightning.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the currently dry wave that the GFS has been showing scraping along the greater antilies then developing in the gulf. Same with the Euro just with no development. it tries..

if it stays slightly farther north than the GFS with less land interaction it could try to come together sooner. similar to the EURO from yesterday as it approached SE Florida. best candidate we have for the next week

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z CMC with our first MDR storm this season at hour 90 or so. Strong TS.

[TheProfessor]

Canadian going for a long track tropical cyclone in the MDR today.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Canadian going for a long track tropical cyclone in the MDR today.

One thing to take away from the models over the last few days is that over the next few weeks it is likely the MDR will start waking up. I am starting to get 2017 vibes.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GEFS appears to have latched on to the CMC system:

[aspen]

12z CMC with our first MDR storm this season at hour 90 or so. Strong TS.

It starts pulling itself together as early as 48 hours, so it’s likely from a wave that has already exited the coast.

12z ICON also attempts to develop this in the same time frame, but never really tightens up.

[TheStormExpert]

Canadian going for a long track tropical cyclone in the MDR today.

Hopefully it’s up to its old tricks!