2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[USTropics]

Just in time before the peak of the season begins.What a change from cooler waters a few weeks ago to warmer now and is warming more.

https://i.imgur.com/jh4nuhy.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/MI6VWne.png

SST trends across the entire Atlantic, but particularly the eastern Atlantic, have significantly rebounded after the historic SAL outbreak a few weeks ago.

NOAA trend (almost off the charts warming in the east Atlantic):


OISST anomaly trend:


What's changed the past week? Low-level flow (or trade winds) have relaxed:


You can see the classic signature for the leading tail of the African Easterly Jet (detailed here viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121005) is quite noticeable as well now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1284222420010835968

[SFLcane]

Just in time before the peak of the season begins.What a change from cooler waters a few weeks ago to warmer now and is warming more.

https://i.imgur.com/jh4nuhy.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/MI6VWne.png

Wow!!

[toad strangler]

Not meant to repeat @cycloneye's post of these SST anomalies on the previous page .... same content from a different source .... where oh where are the MDR is cooling handwringers


 http://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1284258942500179969

[JPmia]

https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1284222420010835968

and just like that the tropics always surprise us all..

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the lid should come off within the next week or two, as the GFS keeps trying to pinup each tropical wave that exits Africa. Only a matter of time before we see a Tropical Storm or Hurricane from one of the waves.

[CFLHurricane]

Ventrice putting on the brakes for now-
 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284096768871890945

[gatorcane]

It looks like the lid should come off within the next week or two, as the GFS keeps trying to pinup each tropical wave that exits Africa. Only a matter of time before we see a Tropical Storm or Hurricane from one of the waves.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_atl_fh0-384-2.gif

Not sure I agree with that. Think we are going to need to wait until mid August per climo as far as MDR activity maybe even a bit later in late August. How about how quiet world cyclone activity is? I checked the models and zilch in the WPAC. Something is off this year.

I see the GFS is spinning up phantom canes in the EPAC.

[StruThiO]

I checked the models and zilch in the WPAC. Something is off this year,

developing nina

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1284097073604972544




Strongest one yet, but will be short-lived.

[NDG]

Ventrice putting on the brakes for now-
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284096768871890945?s=21

Him ans his Kelvin waves, late June he was betting on tropical development in the MDR because of a strong kelvin wave forecasted to go over the MDR despite being just after a historic SAL outbreak.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1277958790713933824

[NDG]

Great interview & discussion by Mark Sudduth & Ben Noll earlier this afternoon, too bad their internet connection was not the best.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/BtfLg86Ocf8[/youtube]
 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1284232457081049088

[NDG]

It looks like the lid should come off within the next week or two, as the GFS keeps trying to pinup each tropical wave that exits Africa. Only a matter of time before we see a Tropical Storm or Hurricane from one of the waves.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_atl_fh0-384-2.gif

Not sure I agree with that. Think we are going to need to wait until mid August per climo as far as MDR activity maybe even a bit later in late August. How about how quiet world cyclone activity is? I checked the models and zilch in the WPAC. Something is off this year.

I see the GFS is spinning up phantom canes in the EPAC.

Reason for the whole Pacific being so quiet:

[AtlanticWind]

Ventrice putting on the brakes for now-
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284096768871890945?s=21

I like Ventrice but I still remember his tweets before Irma formed about how conditions were hostile
in MDR and he wasnt expecting much activity until mid sept.

[stormlover2013]

Ventrice putting on the brakes for now-
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284096768871890945?s=21

I like Ventrice but I still remember his tweets before Irma formed about how conditions were hostile
in MDR and he wasnt expecting much activity until mid sept.

Mid September lol whatever

[Ubuntwo]

Ventrice putting on the brakes for now-
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284096768871890945?s=21

I like Ventrice but I still remember his tweets before Irma formed about how conditions were hostile
in MDR and he wasnt expecting much activity until mid sept.

A large-scale feature like the passage of a kelvin wave is far easier to forecast than the interaction between two much more localized systems.

[jaxfladude]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

[NotSparta]

It looks like the lid should come off within the next week or two, as the GFS keeps trying to pinup each tropical wave that exits Africa. Only a matter of time before we see a Tropical Storm or Hurricane from one of the waves.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_atl_fh0-384-2.gif

Not sure I agree with that. Think we are going to need to wait until mid August per climo as far as MDR activity maybe even a bit later in late August. How about how quiet world cyclone activity is? I checked the models and zilch in the WPAC. Something is off this year.

I see the GFS is spinning up phantom canes in the EPAC.

Reason for the whole Pacific being so quiet:

https://i.imgur.com/iIal4pK.gif

Yeah, developing Niña means the east part of the WPAC is quiet, and African standing wave robs a bunch of -VP from the far west Pacific, which makes almost everywhere unfavorable. Mei-yu front has been dominating the scene

[NDG]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

For the 200th time, the signs are that we are in mid July and there no signs at all of a below average season ahead, not one expert disagrees.
Fairly active seasons have had very quiet July like 1950, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2012, 2017

[cycloneye]

I can see comming those annual (Season Cancel) posts even with 6 named storms that have formed and the meat of the season not here yet.