2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro.. showing a little something similar to the CMC..

[aspen]

12z CMC has a TC developing in the MDR between 72-90 hours and tracks it into the Caribbean, instead of north of the Greater Antilles like in previous runs.

[Aric Dunn]

Quite an uptick with the 12z EURO. showing possible development with the MDR system. if the operational shows it.

I would imagine there will be a lot more EPS as well.

[St0rmTh0r]

Not surprising the water in the MDR are warming rapidly

[Aric Dunn]

GEPS--

[AutoPenalti]

If the MDR system is named I would think it would just be the same one that crosses over and not a new vorticity right?

[Monsoonjr99]

With the suppressed Kelvin wave passing through, I'm not sure whether to trust the CMC (and to a lesser extent other models) solution on this system developing in the MDR very soon. This might be phantom TCG considering the hostile short-term state. It also seems similar to what the GFS had near Cabo Verde a few days ago, which didn't pan out. I think this energy is more likely to develop later on once it reaches more favorable conditions near the islands, as the Euro has shown.

Of course, Dorian proved us wrong last year when we thought it was just a GFS phantom, so I won't completely write off an early genesis quite yet. It would be a coup for the Canadian if it verifies.

[Steve]

Here's CMC's Simulated IR 18z. Looks like a big blast north of it flying across the ocean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1812&fh=25

[StPeteMike]

I was afraid when I saw consistent models showing possible development, but only showing a weak system. I always believe models that show development 10 days out don’t really show the possibility of development but more along the lines of an environment favorable for development. It’s not until 3-5 days out that I start believing models start showing possible development. This will likely be our first hurricane, and I won’t rule out major hurricane, if it develops.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS at 18z is showing the Atlantic coming alive. It keeps being hinted at more and more each run in all models. I believe it is a sign that things may start escalating dramatically by the end of July. Buckle up everyone

[aspen]

18z GFS fully develops the system the CMC has been showing for the last day. Let’s see how it evolves in the rest of the run.

[SFLcane]

GFS at 18z is showing the Atlantic coming alive. It keeps being hinted at more and more each run in all models. I believe it is a sign that things may start escalating dramatically by the end of July. Buckle up everyone

Not much to see on the 18z GFS a couple of strong out waves likely weakening due to sinking airmass that remains. I do agree it’s only a matter of time.

[aspen]

Welp, the little guy didn’t evolve much on the rest of the GFS run. Pretty much died by 4-5 days out. However, the fact that the GFS is now showing an actual TC is increasing the odds of it developing, because the CMC is no longer alone.

[Steve]

Here's the CMC 12Z with a storm at the Yucatan at 240 hours. It's a Caribbean runner which would be an interesting July solution. Maybe a week early for that type of track, but we'll see...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=115

[MississippiWx]

Has anyone noticed the vigorous closed low-level spin at 20N 55W? It even has a flare up of thunderstorms with it. Amazing how everything is wanting to spin this year. This wave may need to be watched as it heads west.

[Shell Mound]

The 00Z ECMWF strongly hints at Gonzalo and Hanna within the next four days in association with 99L and the current wave near the Straits of Florida. After day five there are even hints of Isaias in association with the next pronounced AEW that is currently well inland over southern Algeria. The key is that we are still seeing signs of life despite the downwelling phase of the CCKW that is currently moving through the basin. Even the systems that aren’t forming are amplified and spinning, even at the low levels.

[Ubuntwo]

Yep some long-range MDR activity with the 0z Euro, as had been hinted by the EPS for a few runs. Should moisten up the environment for future runs and help clear the way for an active period.

[Ubuntwo]

Wow

[SFLcane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/735040504907038770/ecens_2020-07-21-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
Wow

Sleeping giant is about to wake up!

[supercane4867]

Candidate for the first major of the season.