EPAC: SEVEN-E - Unnamed Tropical Storm - Remnants
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cycloneye
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EPAC: SEVEN-E - Unnamed Tropical Storm - Remnants
99E INVEST 200718 1800 14.0N 123.7W EPAC 20 1009
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/18/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 10 9 10 18 17 19 19 21 21 18 18 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 4 4 2 0
SHEAR DIR 284 246 259 269 269 233 204 209 215 215 214 215 217 240 250 256 253
SST (C) 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.4 24.7 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 137 131 129 111 92 86 86 85 81 82 85 88 88 89 96
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 61 57 50 44 38 33 28 26 26 25 27 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 8 8 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 1
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -10 -18 -13 -7 -27 -45 -27 -17 -46 -71 -79 -90 -103 -88 -67
200 MB DIV 57 92 106 102 92 57 17 25 -11 -18 -15 -14 2 -7 -3 -16 7
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -8 -10 -10 -5 7 12 8 10 4 0 -4 -13 -20 -30 -34
LAND (KM) 1694 1747 1818 1854 1880 1880 1898 1861 1879 1922 1846 1747 1658 1586 1527 1449 1347
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.8 20.8 22.6 23.8 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 123.7 125.1 126.4 127.6 128.8 130.6 132.1 133.6 135.2 136.8 138.0 139.2 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 7 6 5 5 3 3 4 6
HEAT CONTENT 12 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 12. 11. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 3. -3. -8. -14. -19. -28. -38.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 123.7
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 5.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/18/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 29 31 32 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 10 9 10 18 17 19 19 21 21 18 18 25 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 4 4 2 0
SHEAR DIR 284 246 259 269 269 233 204 209 215 215 214 215 217 240 250 256 253
SST (C) 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.4 24.7 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.1 22.2 22.5 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 137 131 129 111 92 86 86 85 81 82 85 88 88 89 96
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 60 59 61 57 50 44 38 33 28 26 26 25 27 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 8 8 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 1
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -10 -18 -13 -7 -27 -45 -27 -17 -46 -71 -79 -90 -103 -88 -67
200 MB DIV 57 92 106 102 92 57 17 25 -11 -18 -15 -14 2 -7 -3 -16 7
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -8 -10 -10 -5 7 12 8 10 4 0 -4 -13 -20 -30 -34
LAND (KM) 1694 1747 1818 1854 1880 1880 1898 1861 1879 1922 1846 1747 1658 1586 1527 1449 1347
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.8 20.8 22.6 23.8 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 123.7 125.1 126.4 127.6 128.8 130.6 132.1 133.6 135.2 136.8 138.0 139.2 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 7 6 5 5 3 3 4 6
HEAT CONTENT 12 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 12. 11. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 3. -3. -8. -14. -19. -28. -38.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 123.7
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 5.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/18/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
I'm so excited!!
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
Oops nevermind. EPS is showing support for another system.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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AnnularCane
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
AnnularCane wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I'm so excited!!
Cat 5 here we come!
Can't wait to see this spit out a bunch of outflow boundaries. I also want to see how far the convection can be separated from the center.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
It's a decent invest right now. And I'm just glad that there is at least one entity out in the worldwide tropics to follow for the time being.
I'm going to forecast a 30kt peak just to tempt the universe to prove me wrong and give us a major.
I'm going to forecast a 30kt peak just to tempt the universe to prove me wrong and give us a major.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2020
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward, and some development is possible late this
weekend and early next week before it moves into less favorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2020
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward, and some development is possible late this
weekend and early next week before it moves into less favorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
AnnularCane wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I'm so excited!!
Cat 5 here we come!
You bet!!!
Kingarabian wrote:AnnularCane wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I'm so excited!!
Cat 5 here we come!
Can't wait to see this spit out a bunch of outflow boundaries. I also want to see how far the convection can be separated from the center.
I've always loved outflow boundaries anyway so I might still be able to admire.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
Convection could be stronger but the structure looks really good. Probably very close to a TD or is one.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
It does look good, but I don't think it's quite there yet. A recent ASCAT pass from about 3 hours ago indicated it was still a bit more like an elongated wind shift, it needs some west winds. It needs to tighten up just a tad more in my opinion. I think a good convective burst would do the trick.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
A low pressure system is located about 1200 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
low's circulation has become better defined, the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for this system to become
a tropical depression before it reaches cooler waters in a day or
two while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
low's circulation has become better defined, the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for this system to become
a tropical depression before it reaches cooler waters in a day or
two while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143859
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
A low pressure system located a little more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The low is beginning to move over cooler waters, so the system only
has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression
over the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The low is beginning to move over cooler waters, so the system only
has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression
over the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 1 4 8 6 7 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 0 -2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 324 307 266 290 75 97 84 70 56 27 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.5 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 122 116 115 107 106 111 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 65 61 60 55 51 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -18 -17 -20 -40 -36 -23 -15 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 86 91 89 80 58 19 13 1 -5 -14 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 6 3 6 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1850 1865 1880 1895 1916 2026 2170 1986 1710 1422 1154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 11 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 126.7
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.38 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 4.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 10.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 34 36 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 37
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 1 4 8 6 7 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 0 -2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 324 307 266 290 75 97 84 70 56 27 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.5 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 122 116 115 107 106 111 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 65 61 60 55 51 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -18 -17 -20 -40 -36 -23 -15 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 86 91 89 80 58 19 13 1 -5 -14 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 6 3 6 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1850 1865 1880 1895 1916 2026 2170 1986 1710 1422 1154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 11 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 18. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 126.7
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.38 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 4.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 10.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 5 6 5 6 11 13 18 19 25 31 35 34 32 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 9 7 8
SHEAR DIR 356 23 41 47 86 133 161 197 214 226 229 226 229 235 234 243 243
SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.2 23.5 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 117 111 104 96 95 98 94 97 89 87 85 85 88 95
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 62 59 53 45 36 31 28 26 25 25 23 20 17
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -16 -23 -36 -46 -38 -44 -43 -53 -45 -76 -93 -87 -74 -53 -47
200 MB DIV 74 73 65 39 24 6 7 -21 -6 -7 -1 -14 -11 -11 1 -8 -4
700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 2 7 9 10 18 18 20 15 10 -5 -21 -35 -29 -20
LAND (KM) 1834 1842 1843 1859 1872 1969 2066 1908 1703 1544 1436 1395 1413 1437 1437 1383 1274
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.8 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.1 128.9 129.8 130.5 132.4 134.5 136.6 138.7 140.5 142.0 143.0 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 0 1 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 17. 14. 10. 7. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -35. -43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.2
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992020 07/19/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 27 27 25 26 26 25 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 5 6 5 6 11 13 18 19 25 31 35 34 32 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 9 7 8
SHEAR DIR 356 23 41 47 86 133 161 197 214 226 229 226 229 235 234 243 243
SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.2 23.5 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 117 111 104 96 95 98 94 97 89 87 85 85 88 95
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 62 59 53 45 36 31 28 26 25 25 23 20 17
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -16 -23 -36 -46 -38 -44 -43 -53 -45 -76 -93 -87 -74 -53 -47
200 MB DIV 74 73 65 39 24 6 7 -21 -6 -7 -1 -14 -11 -11 1 -8 -4
700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 2 7 9 10 18 18 20 15 10 -5 -21 -35 -29 -20
LAND (KM) 1834 1842 1843 1859 1872 1969 2066 1908 1703 1544 1436 1395 1413 1437 1437 1383 1274
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.8 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.1 128.9 129.8 130.5 132.4 134.5 136.6 138.7 140.5 142.0 143.0 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 0 1 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 17. 14. 10. 7. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -35. -43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.2
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 07/19/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15827
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
Oh yeah, that’s an easy TD. It’ll likely be numbered if it keeps that convection for the next few hours until the 00z best track update comes out.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
With convection increasing towards the center that was once fully exposed, I think this can be declared. Has about ~18 hours though before SST's drop below 25C but its upper environment is decent.
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