Low over the NW GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[Stormcenter]

Eastern GOM looks pretty disturbed this afternoon

[toad strangler]

Eastern GOM looks pretty disturbed this afternoon

A thread start with no satellite, radar, or map?

[Nimbus]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

[TheStormExpert]

Eastern GOM looks pretty disturbed this afternoon

A thread start with no satellite, radar, or map?

[floridasun78]

area person talking about gave south fl stormy Friday night and Saturday morning with alot lighting

[Stormcenter]

My bad, thanks for adding satellite loop.

[AnnularCane]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

[Nimbus]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

Lumpy strawberry infrared band from the 60's..
The tangerine had 12 sections. I ate five sections. Dad ate 1/3. How much of the tangerine did we eat?

Flight 19 from Ft Lauderdale found in the Sahara desert from the 1977 movie Close encounters of the third kind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoR5YzpmAiw

1946 they found Vengeance A11 three stage rockets at the same Sahara location..
Media blackout till the 60's but the French controlled it at that point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kphB-D3ume8

[Steve]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

That’s a joke, right?

[Steve]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

Lumpy strawberry infrared band from the 60's..

Kaleidoscopic Eyes and Tangerine Trees

[Hurricane Jed]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

That’s a joke, right?

That’s hockey for the twee twee’s. There are some sayings and ism’s those haven’t heard

[toad strangler]

Lots of marmalade skies this time of year over the Gulf of Mexico but I'm not seeing surface pressures below 30 inches at the buoys except as evening diurnal dips. Apparently there are some waves further east that may drift in later.

"Marmalade skies"...never heard that term before. I like the way it sounds though.

You obviously aren't a Beetles fan

[AnnularCane]

The Beatles are fine, I just haven't listened to them much.

[TheStormExpert]

This would explain why we had a stormy night last night in West Palm Beach, woke up several times to the sound of thunder!

[toad strangler]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naoknj1ebqI

[Steve]

The Beatles are fine, I just haven't listened to them much.

It could have been Elton John too since it’s a reference to Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.

[South Texas Storms]

Well this thread doesn't look like it's about the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf...

This wave has lower development chances than the one behind it. This wave just looks to help enhance rainfall across southeast TX and LA early next week.

[Steve]

Well this thread doesn't look like it's about the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf...

This wave has lower development chances than the one behind it. This wave just looks to help enhance rainfall across southeast TX and LA early next week.

Yeah, we were just tripping on some marmalade skies. Haha. Anyway, I didn't think the second low was going to do anything either. But the next surge is aimed for the SC/SW LA Coast. I thought this might be the energy ICON was closing off near SWLA earlier in the week and then gradually shifted it a little south and west toward the TX Coast. General flow out of the SE is across the Gulf. What's weird about ICON's rainfall depictions is that it all stays almost offshore. I'm not buying into that completely. It currently closes off a weak low south of Houma on Wednesday night, moves it toward Galveston and then up toward Dallas. Looks pretty insignificant, but it could keep things cloudy and temperatures down across the central and western Gulf this week.

ICON Rainfall Depiction through next Sunday morning (180 hours)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

GFS through 180
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

CMC through 180
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

Here's HRRR IR Sim through 18 hours showing a lot of popup storms on the IR tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1904&fh=18

[AJC3]

Well this thread doesn't look like it's about the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf...

This wave has lower development chances than the one behind it. This wave just looks to help enhance rainfall across southeast TX and LA early next week.

Minor quibble. This is more of a "pseudo" tropical wave, which is why, when I took the liberty of re-titling the thread, I used "inverted trough" instead of "tropical wave". In spite of offices adjacent to ours having called this feature a t-wave in their AFDs, it's really not. It's origin is a low level vort lobe that broke off an old frontal boundary over the western Atlantic a few days ago and then moved across south Florida Fri night into early Saturday morning. I realize some folks, even professional mets, like to play fast and loose with the terms "easterly wave" and "tropical wave", since In terms of sensibile weather effects, there's not a whole lot of difference (although true AEWs tend to be more robust). I reserve the term "topical wave" for true AEWs.

(As an aside, I'm also pretty particular about what I call a TUTT low or trough (which actually fractures off the mid Atlantic TUTT), versus a "TUTT-type" low/trough which pinches off the base of a northern stream trough, then gets trapped and sent westward underneath a building ridge to its west. But that's a discussion for another day).

Anyway, here's part of my AFD from 4 days ago...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

Thursday-Next Wednesday...

A series of weak inverted mid level vort lobes traverse westward
across Florida, coupled with subtle easterly ripples and their
associated pooled moisture. The most pronounced of these looks to be
Fri, when a lobe of Sfc-H85 vorticity fractures off a decaying front
over the western Atlantic and gets shunted SW-W beneath the ridge
and across FL.

Note: this feature actually crossed SOFL about 12-18 hours later than the 00Z WED model runs were indicating.

[USTropics]

Well this thread doesn't look like it's about the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf...

This wave has lower development chances than the one behind it. This wave just looks to help enhance rainfall across southeast TX and LA early next week.

Minor quibble. This is more of a "pseudo" tropical wave, which is why, when I took the liberty of re-titling the thread, I used "inverted trough" instead of "tropical wave". In spite of offices adjacent to ours having called this feature a t-wave in their AFDs, it's really not. It's origin is a low level vort lobe that broke off an old frontal boundary over the western Atlantic a few days ago and then moved across south Florida Fri night into early Saturday morning. I realize some folks, even professional mets, like to play fast and loose with the terms "easterly wave" and "tropical wave", since In terms of sensibile weather effects, there's not a whole lot of difference (although true AEWs tend to be more robust). I reserve the term "topical wave" for true AEWs.

(As an aside, I'm also pretty particular about what I call a TUTT low or trough (which actually fractures off the mid Atlantic TUTT), versus a "TUTT-type" low/trough which pinches off the base of a northern stream trough, then gets trapped and sent westward underneath a building ridge to its west. But that's a discussion for another day).

Anyway, here's part of my AFD from 4 days ago...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

Thursday-Next Wednesday...

A series of weak inverted mid level vort lobes traverse westward
across Florida, coupled with subtle easterly ripples and their
associated pooled moisture. The most pronounced of these looks to be
Fri, when a lobe of Sfc-H85 vorticity fractures off a decaying front
over the western Atlantic and gets shunted SW-W beneath the ridge
and across FL.

Note: this feature actually crossed SOFL about 12-18 hours later than the 00Z WED model runs were indicating.

I was just going to post about this actually. The recent passage of a tropical wave axis (pink) that is entering the BOC/EPAC has provided extra moisture for this inverted trough axis (blue):


Here is a better representation of what is really going on: