Tropical Wave near 42W (Is Invest 99L)

[IsabelaWeather]

Wave isn't looking so hot right now. Not sure how these models turn it into a possible TC.

[aspen]

12z Euro briefly develops this, but it’s dead by 96 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

The current lack of convection isn't surprising considering the strong suppressed Kelvin Wave currently crossing the tropical Atlantic. That, along with unfavorable July climo, makes me somewhat more skeptical of the CMC/ECMWF solutions showing a TD in ~48-72 hours. However, shear appears to be relatively low at the moment.

[aspen]

The current lack of convection isn't surprising considering the strong suppressed Kelvin Wave currently crossing the tropical Atlantic. That, along with unfavorable July climo, makes me somewhat more skeptical of the CMC/ECMWF solutions showing a TD in ~48-72 hours. However, shear appears to be relatively low at the moment.

I thought that suppressive CCKW wasn’t going to arrive until next week.

If it’s going to be out of the basin sooner, that will mean some of these waves would have a better opportunity to develop closer to the very end of the month once they get into the western Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

the Circ is looking quite healthy compared to earlier. Fresh convection building in association with it... and of course it still needs to break off from the ITCZ but appears the recent models runs are pointing in the right direction.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to really light up with that circ.

Nice curved structure.

If thst builds throughout the night we might be looking at a rapidly developing but short lived TC.

[floridasun78]

i been watching area as came off Africa only issue why we wont see on outlook one still hook to ITCZ so may waking when move away from ITCZ and some some dry air to north and shear to it west http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html some dryair to north http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= shear not that bad but still some

[TheProfessor]

The Canadian continues to not back down with this and continues to show the storm survive the Caribbean and wind up in the southern Gulf as a tropical storm.

[CyclonicFury]

A tropical wave located more than 900 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development of this system during the next
few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 41/42W from 02N-17N, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the wave mainly south of 11N, within the monsoon trough.

[GCANE]

CMC and GFS are forecasting dry-air entrainment in about 48 hrs.
GFS kills it, CMC keeps it alive.
Looking at Mid-Level Water Vapor Imagery, it'll be tracking into moist air in the short term.
Next couple days will be the tell if this is a protected pouch or not.
Looking at IR and the leading outflow, it suggests to me that this maybe a protected pouch.
Levi has a floater on it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

The forecasted dry-air entrainment appears to be coming from a small ULL forming just ahead of the wave's track.
Heavy convection could push this out of the way.
Stay tuned.

[Aric Dunn]

This is very close to a TC this morning. Just a slight increase in convection and they will have to upgrade. Does not appear to be attached to the ITCZ any longer.

[ouragans]

It should turn to orange at 12z, like 20/50

[TheStormExpert]

This is very close to a TC this morning. Just a slight increase in convection and they will have to upgrade. Does not appear to be attached to the ITCZ any longer.

https://i.ibb.co/cLdHvkR/70487745-1.gif

Doubt this gets classified anytime soon, but an up in percentages is most likely.

[cycloneye]

It should be a invest soon.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized this morning. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend,
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

This is very close to a TC this morning. Just a slight increase in convection and they will have to upgrade. Does not appear to be attached to the ITCZ any longer.

https://i.ibb.co/cLdHvkR/70487745-1.gif

Doubt this gets classified anytime soon, but an up in percentages is most likely.

again if more convection builds up near the center they wont really have much choice. per last night's ASCAT we know there is a closed circ.. was just attached to the ITCZ.

that does not appear to be much of an issue any longer. so the only thing left is for convection to build more around the center.

[SFLcane]

This is very close to a TC this morning. Just a slight increase in convection and they will have to upgrade. Does not appear to be attached to the ITCZ any longer.

https://i.ibb.co/cLdHvkR/70487745-1.gif

Looks like bit of easterly shear there. To be a TC it actually has to have persisted convection. Let’s see what it does today.