Low over the NW GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[Nimbus]

If we hadn't dropped all that cash on nitric acid oxidizer back in the 60's we'd be using these buoys a lot more.
Even further west off Galveston the surface pressures are dropping.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[Aric Dunn]

If we hadn't dropped all that cash on nitric acid oxidizer back in the 60's we'd be using these buoys a lot more.
Even further west off Galveston the surface pressures are dropping.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

bouy's under the convection and south are similar pressure

[Steve]

I could see it showing a decent spin, but I don't think this ever gets classified. If it does, and I'd give it like 5%, it won't get past depression status. This is setting the table for the Bahamas low to follow it in 2-3 days. We'll see what happens with that. Mesoscales show rain in SC/SWLA and SETX out of this one. It was only low 80's here in New Orleans today, so I'm sure if anyone west of here has been super hot, they will appreciate the influence.

[tailgater]

Wave is taking it’s time crossing the GOM, 925 mb vorticity is increasing, but I still doubt it will be classified before coming on shore.

[Aric Dunn]

we have a SW and west winds out there.. surface circ is forming ESE of Galveston

Man the mesoscale models this year are just killing it.

[Aric Dunn]

couple of the Meso models seem to think a center will quickly form then another will form farther SE.

interesting.. convection is on the increase but will need time to organize..

[cycloneye]

Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area has
formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and little
additional development is expected before the system moves inland
over Texas tonight or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[northjaxpro]

This will probably run out of time and open GOM water before it can truly develop.

[Aric Dunn]

This will probably run out of time and open GOM water before it can truly develop.

Very interesting watching this circ develop literally over the last couple hours..

you can see the sudden shift in low level flow and now convection is building.

[Aric Dunn]

I smell a STWO coming in a couple of hours..

it will probably say 10 percent due to proximity to land.

[tailgater]

Wow 3 lemons this morning in July, this area along with the other 2 are flaring up as you would expect DMax. Some dry air in the mid levels with this one but it does look more organized this morning. 10 percent sounds good to me.

[Aric Dunn]

lol I guess this was already mentioned at 8 am. I did not even notice.

anyway..

since the mesoscale models have been on point.. they are showing a center reforming to the SE in the convection..

so this might actually have a shot.

[NDG]

Definitely a well defined closed circulation, is not just a trough any more, topic name needs to be changed.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a well defined closed circulation, is not just a trough any more, topic name needs to be changed.

https://i.imgur.com/Ct8ULq1.gif

Yeah for sure.


also it is swinging ese to the convection.. this has all the makings of a rapid spin up..

[NDG]

Definitely a well defined closed circulation, is not just a trough any more, topic name needs to be changed.

https://i.imgur.com/Ct8ULq1.gif

Yeah for sure.


also it is swinging ese to the convection.. this has all the makings of a rapid spin up..

Pressures in this area have also dropped 3 mb in the past 24 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a version of the HRRR in 24 hours. borderline TS. saw a couple of wind barbs at TS strength.

https://i.ibb.co/vjB9kTP/Capture.png

I just want to point out the damn near pin point job the HRW-A meso model has done.. my post from yesterday.

and if the center continues to swing ese like it is right now.

by 1 pm which would be 24 hours after this image.. it pretty much nailed it.

[Aric Dunn]

yep Center has begun reforming to the ESE under that convection per the surface obs.


this is happening quickly. assuming convection doe snot collapse quick upgrade later today is possible.

[EquusStorm]

This is the general area where Imelda and Humberto among many others ramped up at landfall so wouldn't be surprised to see a run at it. Just not sure I want to see Gonzalo spent on a 3-4 advisory storm lol

[Aric Dunn]

This is the general area where Imelda and Humberto among many others ramped up at landfall so wouldn't be surprised to see a run at it. Just not sure I want to see Gonzalo spent on a 3-4 advisory storm lol

well at this point we might see Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias in the next week all short lived lol

[tailgater]

Here is a version of the HRRR in 24 hours. borderline TS. saw a couple of wind barbs at TS strength.

https://i.ibb.co/vjB9kTP/Capture.png

I just want to point out the damn near pin point job the HRW-A meso model has done.. my post from yesterday.

and if the center continues to swing ese like it is right now.

by 1 pm which would be 24 hours after this image.. it pretty much nailed it.

https://i.ibb.co/vjB9kTP/Capture.png

Since it has seemed to do so well, could you give us a look at what this model has for the next 12- 24 hrs. Thanks Aric, asking for a friend haha