2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1285325903455825921

[toad strangler]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take.
(For those who may not know, he's a fellow S2Ker! )

Sudduth mentions that signals are overwhelming and that even aside form the 2nd half of August through October ... that November could be busy.... interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take.
(For those who may not know, he's a fellow S2Ker! )

Sudduth mentions that signals are overwhelming and that even aside form the 2nd half of August through October ... that November could be busy.... interesting.

I agree that August through October will be quite busy but November being busy is a wild card. Typically we only see 1-2 named storms in November, not to mention everyone expected things to be quite active well into October and November 2017 only for that to not really materialize.

[toad strangler]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take.
(For those who may not know, he's a fellow S2Ker! )

Sudduth mentions that signals are overwhelming and that even aside form the 2nd half of August through October ... that November could be busy.... interesting.

I agree that August through October will be quite busy but November being busy is a wild card. Typically we only see 1-2 named storms in November, not to mention everyone expected things to be quite active well into October and November 2017 only for that to not really materialize.

I get it. It's easy to go with the norm and climo. You'll do much better than break even almost every time. I use climo a lot too. You should watch the piece.

[SFLcane]

Some long -range EPS members picking up on another TW developing in the MDR and tracking into the SW Atlantic near FL. We will see if the uptick continues.

[TheStormExpert]

Some long -range EPS members picking up on another TW developing in the MDR and tracking into the SW Atlantic near FL. We will see if the uptick continues.

https://i.imgur.com/vMF9HT9.png

I smell the lid getting ready to come off, buckle up guys!!

[gfsperpendicular]

Some long -range EPS members picking up on another TW developing in the MDR and tracking into the SW Atlantic near FL. We will see if the uptick continues.

https://i.imgur.com/vMF9HT9.png

I think that was the same wave the CFS had an eye on a few weeks ago.

[EquusStorm]

That wave coming off Africa is a chonk. That one could be interesting to watch if it stays out of the dry air up there

[hurricanehunter69]

wow...this could turn out to be the shortest lull in any season I've ever witnessed. The lull of 2020 may have lasted less than two weeks?

[AnnularCane]

That wave coming off Africa is a chonk. That one could be interesting to watch if it stays out of the dry air up there

Okay, I must know. What is a chonk?

[AutoPenalti]

That wave coming off Africa is a chonk. That one could be interesting to watch if it stays out of the dry air up there

Okay, I must know. What is a chonk?

Something chunkier than chunky.

[Shell Mound]

So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.

If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.

The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.

99L/Gonzalo/2020: ”Challenge accepted.” I may have played “Devil’s advocate” too soon.

[Chris90]

I don't know who watched Mark Sudduth's video today and who didn't, but one big takeaway that I think is really important is he mentioned the fact that the current activity is occurring during a suppressive Kelvin wave. Whether or not 99L gets classified officially, the fact that it's been doing as well as it has convection wise during a suppressive phase in July speaks volumes. Regardless of whether the NHC gives it the classification or not, I think it counts, especially considering it's not working with favorable VP anomalies.

I think its low latitude is worth a mention as well. I think the door for low latitude Caribbean runners is open wider than normal this year, a higher than typical risk for an Ivan-esque storm.

[Shell Mound]

I don't know who watched Mark Sudduth's video today and who didn't, but one big takeaway that I think is really important is he mentioned the fact that the current activity is occurring during a suppressive Kelvin wave. Whether or not 99L gets classified officially, the fact that it's been doing as well as it has convection wise during a suppressive phase in July speaks volumes. Regardless of whether the NHC gives it the classification or not, I think it counts, especially considering it's not working with favorable VP anomalies.

I think its low latitude is worth a mention as well. I think the door for low latitude Caribbean runners is open wider than normal this year, a higher than typical risk for an Ivan-esque storm.

Maybe TCHP also partly accounts for the rapid warming of the MDR/eastern Caribbean during the past week:


Comparison:



Basically, given record subsurface warmth over a wide area, the Atlantic tropics tend to warm faster as soon as the trades slacken and/or reverse, as they have recently. This rapid rate of surface warming, in turn, indirectly confirms the amount of energy with depth, a critical component of a hyperactive season, though by no means the sole determinant. I do think, however, that TCHP deserves more attention than people are giving it, regardless of what the SSTs are, since hurricanes, especially major ones, crucially depend more on TCHP than SSTs for maximum potential intensity to be attained at a high ceiling.

[SFLcane]

No let up on the EPS overnight looks very active across the MDR.

[Chris90]

Maybe TCHP also partly accounts for the rapid warming of the MDR/eastern Caribbean during the past week:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020201at.jpg

Comparison:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010200at.jpg
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005200at.jpg

Basically, given record subsurface warmth over a wide area, the Atlantic tropics tend to warm faster as soon as the trades slacken and/or reverse, as they have recently. This rapid rate of surface warming, in turn, indirectly confirms the amount of energy with depth, a critical component of a hyperactive season, though by no means the sole determinant. I do think, however, that TCHP deserves more attention than people are giving it, regardless of what the SSTs are, since hurricanes, especially major ones, crucially depend more on TCHP than SSTs for maximum potential intensity to be attained at a high ceiling.

The TCHP this year has definitely been impressive. It's been that way for weeks, although I do believe there was a point in the past 2-3 months where it slackened a bit and wasn't quite up to 2005/10/17 levels. I think in regards to oceanic conditions, this season is pretty well locked in with that being a favorable indicator, it's been leaning favorable since the spring. The Caribbean is also pretty well explosive with the TCHP, and with a cooling ENSO state, the Caribbean will most likely be more favorable this year than it has been recently, it'll just depend on a storm tracking over that region and taking full advantage.

I've become quite a bit more interested in the MJO this past year, and I think one of the major indicators that hasn't received enough attention is the standing wave over Africa. Favorable VP anomalies have definitely been present over Africa/Indian Ocean, and combined with the oceanic state, I'm thinking the CV portion of the season is going to be intense, and I don't think we're far from kickoff.

The question becomes will steering currents direct waves/cyclones into the Caribbean during the CV portion of the season and allow a storm to go Allen/Gilbert/Dean by taking advantage of the explosive heat content, or will something form later on in October in a more Wilma-esque fashion? Maybe nothing of the sort will occur, impossible to know.

I do know that at this point, I'm pretty much expecting a Cat 5 at some point this season with these oceanic and atmospheric conditions, I mean, last year managed 2. Ultimately we'll just have to see how the season plays out. Maybe it rains on our high expectations and the season ends up decidedly average.

[EquusStorm]

With everything in the basin wanting to spin weeks before it should even be considering it, I honestly think we've got a great shot at delving into the Greek names this year... we didn't get to 'C' until August 21 last year and wound up at 'S' ; we're a quarter of the way through the list already in mid July this year

[NDG]

I don't know who watched Mark Sudduth's video today and who didn't, but one big takeaway that I think is really important is he mentioned the fact that the current activity is occurring during a suppressive Kelvin wave. Whether or not 99L gets classified officially, the fact that it's been doing as well as it has convection wise during a suppressive phase in July speaks volumes. Regardless of whether the NHC gives it the classification or not, I think it counts, especially considering it's not working with favorable VP anomalies.

I think its low latitude is worth a mention as well. I think the door for low latitude Caribbean runners is open wider than normal this year, a higher than typical risk for an Ivan-esque storm.

Maybe TCHP also partly accounts for the rapid warming of the MDR/eastern Caribbean during the past week:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020201at.jpg

Comparison:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010200at.jpg
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005200at.jpg

Basically, given record subsurface warmth over a wide area, the Atlantic tropics tend to warm faster as soon as the trades slacken and/or reverse, as they have recently. This rapid rate of surface warming, in turn, indirectly confirms the amount of energy with depth, a critical component of a hyperactive season, though by no means the sole determinant. I do think, however, that TCHP deserves more attention than people are giving it, regardless of what the SSTs are, since hurricanes, especially major ones, crucially depend more on TCHP than SSTs for maximum potential intensity to be attained at a high ceiling.

TCHP only becomes important if a hurricane is barely moving. We have seen many MH track across the Pacific even over the mid latitudes of the mid Atlantic over very shallow warm waters. Good example was MH Hector in 2018 where it became a Cat 4, very very low TCHP but SSTs were warm enough around 81F, it all takes is the right atmospheric conditions, 80+F SSTs and the storm keep moving along.

[TheStormExpert]

No let up on the EPS overnight looks very active across the MDR.

Surprising and alarming considering we’re in a suppressed phase.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't know who watched Mark Sudduth's video today and who didn't, but one big takeaway that I think is really important is he mentioned the fact that the current activity is occurring during a suppressive Kelvin wave. Whether or not 99L gets classified officially, the fact that it's been doing as well as it has convection wise during a suppressive phase in July speaks volumes. Regardless of whether the NHC gives it the classification or not, I think it counts, especially considering it's not working with favorable VP anomalies.

I think its low latitude is worth a mention as well. I think the door for low latitude Caribbean runners is open wider than normal this year, a higher than typical risk for an Ivan-esque storm.

Maybe TCHP also partly accounts for the rapid warming of the MDR/eastern Caribbean during the past week:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020201at.jpg

Comparison:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010200at.jpg
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005200at.jpg

Basically, given record subsurface warmth over a wide area, the Atlantic tropics tend to warm faster as soon as the trades slacken and/or reverse, as they have recently. This rapid rate of surface warming, in turn, indirectly confirms the amount of energy with depth, a critical component of a hyperactive season, though by no means the sole determinant. I do think, however, that TCHP deserves more attention than people are giving it, regardless of what the SSTs are, since hurricanes, especially major ones, crucially depend more on TCHP than SSTs for maximum potential intensity to be attained at a high ceiling.

TCHP only becomes important if a hurricane is barely moving. We have seen many MH track across the Pacific even over the mid latitudes of the mid Atlantic over very shallow warm waters. Good example was MH Hector in 2018 where it became a Cat 4, very very low TCHP but SSTs were warm enough around 81F, it all takes is the right atmospheric conditions, 80+F SSTs and the storm keep moving along.

https://i.imgur.com/qUHSuTT.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/RloVGYn.jpg

I’m sure a storm stalling in the NW Caribbean a lot like Dorian from last year would be able to maintain most of its strength with the TCHP we have there.