ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[abajan]

This should be an interesting TWO at 8am

I'd be very surprised if it isn't code red.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The 2am wording was interesting though. Instead of calling for it to dissipate they said conditions this weekend would limit additional development

[Shell Mound]

The EPS mean suggests that conditions should be reasonably favourable for at least steady, if modest, intensification over the next three and a half days. Beyond that time frame, the SAL surge and an encroaching, retrograding TUTT should prove sufficient to cause rapid degeneration. In the meantime, however, shear will be relatively low and the system insulated from drier mid-level air to its northeast. The only negative factor in the short term is some easterly shear, but it shouldn’t prove too much of a hindrance to organisation. A moderate or strong tropical storm is definitely doable, but don’t expect this to reach the Lesser Antilles intact. Think Beryl (Jul ‘18).

[SFLcane]

This should be an interesting TWO at 8am

You know when the TWO is not early its more then likely not a copy and paste. I would go personally 70-80%

[northjaxpro]

We have a pretty good looking feature in the MDR early this morning.

As I stated last nght, if DMAX does what it should overnight, this should help NHC take the initiative and classify thisfeature officially as a tropical cyclone today.

Personally, would not be shocked this gets upgraded straight to TS Gonzalo.

[Extratropical94]

No code red.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I see no evidence of any dry air intrusion (collapsing convection boundaries). It keeps firing convection over the center. It has good moist inflow, and looking at WV imagery, I dont think SAL is going to catch it. It is far enough south it might just scoot right under it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions
should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

BOOO

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

JB is gonna RAGE against this one when his briefing comes out...lol

[Ubuntwo]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Models give at least another 30 hours before peak... There's still plenty of time for this thing, the NHC probably wants more consistency and evidence as always.

[SFLcane]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

There have been 3 ASCAT showing a closed circ each of which showed increasing symmetry. convection has been maintaining for over 24 hours

sheared at first, but no longer. They are hesitant because the models dont like it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

I guess we will see at 11am
(or wait for an eye...lol)

[Ubuntwo]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

There have been 3 ASCAT showing a closed circ each of which showed increasing symmetry. convection has been maintaining for over 24 hours

sheared at first, but no longer. They are hesitant because the models dont like it.

Sure the models like it... Euro and GFS bring it to a borderline TS, HWRF is all the way up to high-end cat 2, and HMON has it as a high-end TS.
Why jump the gun on a system far from land with at least two days of favorable conditions to go?

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

I guess we will see at 11am
(or wait for an eye...lol)

just like our little hurricane from a few years ago out here.. eye started showing up then it was upgraded to a TS before a hurricane..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

There have been 3 ASCAT showing a closed circ each of which showed increasing symmetry. convection has been maintaining for over 24 hours

sheared at first, but no longer. They are hesitant because the models dont like it.

Sure the models like it... Euro and GFS bring it to a borderline TS, HWRF is all the way up to high-end cat 2, and HMON has it as a high-end TS.
Why jump the gun on a system far from land with at least two days of favorable conditions to go?

Maybe because it meets the definition of a depression as outlined by the NHC now?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, they just might be waiting for another ASCAT. Little surprised with how they're slow playing it.

There have been 3 ASCAT showing a closed circ each of which showed increasing symmetry. convection has been maintaining for over 24 hours

sheared at first, but no longer. They are hesitant because the models dont like it.

Sure the models like it... Euro and GFS bring it to a borderline TS, HWRF is all the way up to high-end cat 2, and HMON has it as a high-end TS.
Why jump the gun on a system far from land with at least two days of favorable conditions to go?

Come on now.. that is all recent runs in the last 18 hours..

for days the models , except the CMC were like nope.. model consistency is also something they look for.

Also dont get me started on jumping the gun on something that should be upgraded.. and is not just becasue it is not near land.. lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

That looks like at least some model support