ATL: GONZALO - Models

[northjaxpro]

Riding low thru the Carib.
Chances improving for a run thru the Yucatan Channel straight into the GoM.

If this survives and IF one puts any stock in the 500 mb set up I'd say that a track right into CA is more likely. But, at this range that's a huge IF of course.

I would hedge that this cyclone will make it into the GOM We will see.

[storm4u]

Some of the 12z hurricane models ramp this up also trending north in the extended

[cainjamin]

FWIW, HWRF strengthens 99L to hurricane strength before hitting the islands, and keeps strenghthening it in the Eastern Caribbean.

[OuterBanker]

Typical no consensus yet from the major models. GFS never gains much latitude and washes it out around 70 w 15 N. Canadian washes it out in the Bahamas. It holds together and is fairly strong on the Euro just south of Hispaniola.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1285600867085881347

[Ubuntwo]

12z GFS enhances the longevity of this thing, with a TS landfall on the Windwards. In line with recent HWRF/HMON trends.

[aspen]

12z GFS keeps this intact by the time it reaches the Caribbean, but finally starts to fall apart around 120 hours out.

[Siker]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.07.2020 0 9.4N 39.2W 1010 21
0000UTC 22.07.2020 12 10.0N 41.0W 1010 20
1200UTC 22.07.2020 24 10.4N 43.1W 1009 26
0000UTC 23.07.2020 36 10.6N 46.1W 1006 34
1200UTC 23.07.2020 48 10.3N 48.9W 1004 36
0000UTC 24.07.2020 60 10.6N 51.4W 1007 35
1200UTC 24.07.2020 72 10.5N 54.4W 1006 38
0000UTC 25.07.2020 84 10.7N 57.4W 1007 38
1200UTC 25.07.2020 96 11.0N 60.7W 1008 39
0000UTC 26.07.2020 108 11.7N 64.2W 1008 37
1200UTC 26.07.2020 120 12.6N 68.0W 1010 37
0000UTC 27.07.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

[Ubuntwo]

CMC also offers up a more intense system that tracks further into the Caribbean. Seems to be the recent trend.

[aspen]

12z NAVGEM doesn’t show much until ~144 hours out, where it restrengthens as it approaches CA. 12z ICON doesn’t show this at all, but develops another MDR system by 180 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF has a hurricane in 24 hours..

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF has a hurricane in 24 hours..

How does the HWRF 06z look? Probably overdone but we shall see. Capeverde season in full swing now going to be a longggg 3 months.

[chaser1]

12z HWRF has a hurricane in 24 hours..

Wow, that would be impressive! Now that there is a far more finite COC becoming apparent and better initialized, I think we'll begin to see all models get a better handle on 99L's future evolution. As for (future) Gonzalo's longer term prospects as it approaches and enters the Caribbean, I'm not so sure that conditions will necessarily become that adverse. The pattern is clearly becoming very progressive. On the topic of near term, the only potential condition that I could see hampering continued development, might be easterly shear that could result in the LLC to become exposed to the east of the convection. I see no evidence of that occurring at this point though.

[toad strangler]

12z HWRF has a hurricane in 24 hours..

How does the HWRF 06z look? Probably overdone but we shall see. Capeverde season in full swing now going to be a longggg 3 months.

https://i.imgur.com/KD6lzbL.png

When viewing the HWRF I immediately build in a 35% to 45% decrease in what it shows.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF has a hurricane in 24 hours..

Wow, that would be impressive! Now that there is a far more finite COC becoming apparent and better initialized, I think we'll begin to see all models get a better handle on 99L's future evolution. As for (future) Gonzalo's longer term prospects as it approaches and enters the Caribbean, I'm not so sure that conditions will necessarily become that adverse. The pattern is clearly becoming very progressive. On the topic of near term, the only potential condition that I could see hampering continued development, might be easterly shear that could result in the LLC to become exposed to the east of the convection. I see no evidence of that occurring at this point though.

the biggest issue will likely be increased low low level flow as it approaches the carrib ... next is dry air. but if it stay south then that wont be a huge issue.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is even more bullish than last run in the short term...

[NDG]

Unfortunately for the Windward Islands, this is a good example to watch when we use the phrase: "the trend is your friend"

[Aric Dunn]

Unfortunately for the Windward Islands, this is a good example to watch when we use the phrase: "the trend is your friend"

https://i.imgur.com/I4zWqKh.gif

GFS is IVAN territory..


well most of the models are in IVAN territory.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is going bonkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

[aspen]

12z HWRF is going bunkers with intensity. Probably going to have a solid major before reaching the islands.

It has an 80 kt/978 mbar hurricane in only 72 hours. Could just be a case of a trigger-happy HWRF, or 99L could pull a Danny ‘15 on us and rapidly intensify into a Cat 2/3.