Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[Steve]

Most of the models seem to indicate Thursday (day after tomorrow) is when it consolidates most.

Latest QPF still shows most of the rain along the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/lpgx3PK.gif

assuming you go off the ( doing not so good) global models on genesis this year lol

Haha. Those were what I was referring to. The mesoscales pretty much agree. They have a spin and it pulses up and down today and tomorrow while moving across the central Gulf. And it's certainly getting better organized along the way. But it looks like after 36-40 hours where it blows up in size and convection. We'll see in a couple of days if they were right.

[Stormcenter]

I can’t see the rain staying along the coast. IMO

Most of the models seem to indicate Thursday (day after tomorrow) is when it consolidates most.

Latest QPF still shows most of the rain along the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/lpgx3PK.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Most of the models seem to indicate Thursday (day after tomorrow) is when it consolidates most.

Latest QPF still shows most of the rain along the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/lpgx3PK.gif

assuming you go off the ( doing not so good) global models on genesis this year lol

Haha. Those were what I was referring to. The mesoscales pretty much agree. They have a spin and it pulses up and down today and tomorrow while moving across the central Gulf. And it's certainly getting better organized along the way. But it looks like after 36-40 hours where it blows up in size and convection. We'll see in a couple of days if they were right.

GFS never ,realistically ,develops it ,,the euro barely does just before landfall... both their ensembles do more then operational. . mesoscale models are thus far the only models showing actual development. with a closed circ in less than 24 hours. and being that the globals barely even show it as a thing currently ... same thing have been doing all year for some reason.

I am leaning towards the esoscale models in the short term.. so far with this system they have also been spot on again..

globals just keep lagging behind..

[Cpv17]

I can’t see the rain staying along the coast. IMO

Most of the models seem to indicate Thursday (day after tomorrow) is when it consolidates most.

Latest QPF still shows most of the rain along the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/lpgx3PK.gif

Same here. Doesn’t make sense to me. I like the Euros depiction of the rainfall.

[Sanibel]

Wind kicking up pretty good here...

[SoupBone]

I can’t see the rain staying along the coast. IMO

Most of the models seem to indicate Thursday (day after tomorrow) is when it consolidates most.

Latest QPF still shows most of the rain along the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/lpgx3PK.gif

Same here. Doesn’t make sense to me. I like the Euros depiction of the rainfall.

We need rain but that Euro forecast for San Antonio would be pretty bad if it verified. San Antonio has always had flooding issues.

[Cpv17]

I can’t see the rain staying along the coast. IMO

Same here. Doesn’t make sense to me. I like the Euros depiction of the rainfall.

We need rain but that Euro forecast for San Antonio would be pretty bad if it verified. San Antonio has always had flooding issues.

The only reason it has that much for SA is because the Euro strengthens the storm over land which is unlikely.

[Portastorm]

Don't post much here as I leave it to you experts ... but I'm really surprised this system isn't even an Invest yet. God knows we've seen much worse get tagged.

[tropicwatch]

Don't post much here as I leave it you experts ... but I'm really surprised this system isn't even an Invest yet. God knows we've seen much worse get tagged.

Especially when it will be effecting land well before 99L.

[SoupBone]

Don't post much here as I leave it you experts ... but I'm really surprised this system isn't even an Invest yet. God knows we've seen much worse get tagged.

Especially when it will be effecting land well before 99L.

We haven't seen wxman57 post much about it either and he's in the Houston area.

[tailgater]

It doesn’t look like this wave is paying attention To models, seems to be trying to develop well ahead what most models are forecasting.
I’m driving can anyone tell me what will hold this system back from developing

[Steve]

It doesn’t look like this wave is paying attention To models, seems to be trying to develop well ahead what most models are forecasting.
I’m driving can anyone tell me what will hold this system back from developing

Nothing will hold it back except for the time it takes to organize. What we just saw with 90L or whatever the number was was that the atmospheric conditions got increasingly better the farther northwest it got. The NAM IR shows that the storm not only gets increasingly better organized but grows pretty large.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72112&fh=6

CMC is similar though it keeps it around for several days
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72112&fh=7

[Nimbus]

Think this is the spot where there is rotation.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200721/screenhunter-01-jul-21-14-51.jpg

https://img.techpowerup.org/200721/screenhunter-02-jul-21-14-55.jpg

Yes that is the area I outlined a couple hours ago.. it is also the area the mesoscale models develop pretty quickly. though it is already ahead of those models.

So watches warnings for Friday will need the call on development.
Is there a buoy in the area this will track over?

It will take more convection to close it off at the surface.

[HurricaneBrain]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic,
Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to cross the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

I can say that if a circ decides to form in the next 12 hours. winds wont be much of an issue. multiple CMAN and ships are reporting TS winds near key west and the staaights.

[Aric Dunn]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic,
Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to cross the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

all they did was change the recon flying tomorrow lol.

[Aric Dunn]

So far 12z Euro is farther north ( as it should be since it is currently farhter north) and better organized.

[Extratropical94]

Finally!

91L INVEST 200721 1800 26.0N 92.0W ATL 15 NA

[Aric Dunn]

Finally!

91L INVEST 200721 1800 26.0N 92.0W ATL 15 NA

Yay now we can get our own CAT 20 from the HWRF

[Steve]

Hey Aric

Though it's not the usual pattern for systems to get better organized after land, some weaker systems do. Take 90L. This is a freaking trip.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis