ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/Dam0xDZ.jpg

Great post. Say's Gonzalo.... "hey Rosby, I've got your downward motion right here" LOL.

[HurricaneEnzo]

As others have mentioned it pretty much appears to be a lock for classification at 5pm. Doesn't look like it is going to be weakening at least in the next few hours. I guess they could always throw out a special advisory sooner but probably not likely with no current threats to land.

If trends continue I feel like this will probably go straight to TS at 5pm. Wouldn't surprise me at least. Also as others have said after post season analysis time of formation will probably be moved up several hours.

[OuterBanker]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

You know Its officially hurricane season when we all become enthralled tracking a 99L Lol

[BYG Jacob]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

Have you looked at our other storms so far?

[gfsperpendicular]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.

I don't think this is completely fair to some of the other storms we've had so far. Edouard (and Fay to an extent) were lopsided, but not really a mess. Arthur and Bertha were very symmetrical, Cristobal had a nice solid CDO before its Mexico landfall and a nice round structure before its Louisiana one, and Dolly had an eye for a bit.

[chaser1]

Yeah persistence didn't mean much for some of our brief systems the last couple years, Olga existed for three advisories

They throw persistence out the window when there's recon and it's a land threat in the short term.

So true. Bermuda is still reeling from the damage from Arthur, Dolly, and Edouard. Last I heard, there was still one beach umbrella missing. Psychologists on the Island claim many residents still experiencing PTSD from those scares How much does each Recon flight cost? Just so NHC can name a transient N. Atlantic low? I say, NHC needs to throw weak hybrid non tropical storms out the window and leave them and other N. Atlantic gales to the other "big boys" that work for the NWS. I'm sure they can handle local forecast and warnings. If persistence no longer matters toward issuing Tropical cyclone upgrades, then ship, bouy, or drone reports, ASCAT, & other satellite derived tools need be trusted for equally quick classification and upgrade. I'm mean c'mon..... astronomers don't choose to not identify comets and asteroids just because they don't pose a risk to Earth, right?

[OuterBanker]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

Have you looked at our other storms so far?

Yes, I have.
This year the first six storms have produced an ACE of less than 8 (7.8) while the first five storms produced an ACE of 56 in 2005.
It’s also ironic that the ACE so far this year is one of the lowest on record.

[CyclonicFury]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

Have you looked at our other storms so far?

Yes, I have.
This year the first six storms have produced an ACE of less than 8 (7.8) while the first five storms produced an ACE of 56 in 2005.
It’s also ironic that the ACE so far this year is one of the lowest on record.

This isn't true. Yes it is among the lowest for the first 6 storms but ACE is still above the long term average for this date.

[BYG Jacob]

Far and away the most symmetrical and well-formed system this season.
Classic look as against the lopsided messes so far this season.
System emerging off Africa now also a threat, I think. Lid has popped off. Off to the races we go.

Have you looked at our other storms so far?

Yes, I have.
This year the first six storms have produced an ACE of less than 8 (7.8) while the first five storms produced an ACE of 56 in 2005.
It’s also ironic that the ACE so far this year is one of the lowest on record.

In sports we call this box score scouting. Barebones MPH and ACE analysis tells you nothing about the storms.

Also, ACE is in fact well above average

[AutoPenalti]

Well, this definitely has the tropical storm look to it this afternoon. This has to be TS Gonzalo by 5pm.

[Aric Dunn]

a series of hot towers ( feeders) are about to complete the first full cycle around the center effectively close the moisture loop.

probably about to see a big burst of convection..

[toad strangler]

I’m with the It’s Gonzalo now crowd. I know you can’t judge a book by its cover but this as compared with named early season sub tropical turds we’ve had? Come on

[EquusStorm]

It isn't exactly normal to have multiple long track category 4+ storms in July though so I'd say 2005's early ACE is a bit anomalous and hard to compare to other than noting their first six storms were certainly more tropical in origin than 5 of our 6 so far. And that might not even tell the whole story since the number of baroclinic transitioning systems could indicate a ridiculously favorable background state

[plasticup]

Frankly this is the best looking storm of the season so far.

[Extratropical94]

Apart from the general look, are there any indicators that this is a 35kt system? I doubt that the NHC will go straight to Gonzalo when they have been ever so conservative with this blob.

[storminabox]

Looks like a TC to me. Fingers crossed it gets classified in the upcoming advisory.

I feel like there were other systems this year that looked far less robust than 99L that they had no problem classifying!

[cainjamin]

Apart from the general look, are there any indicators that this is a 35kt system? I doubt that the NHC will go straight to Gonzalo when they have been ever so conservative with this blob.

Yeah I would be surprised if they go straight to Gonzalo. Most recent ASCAT showed around 30kt so I bet that will be their initial intensity.

Unless things change before 5pm of course!

[TheStormExpert]

Frankly this is the best looking storm of the season so far.

And yet it’s not even classified yet!

[chaser1]

Apart from the general look, are there any indicators that this is a 35kt system? I doubt that the NHC will go straight to Gonzalo when they have been ever so conservative with this blob.

I think you're right. NHC is often a bit conservative with Central or Eastern Atlantic upgrades. I can clearly see west winds, banding features, tremendous south rear flank inflow, and COC co-located convection firing north and south of center but that alone does not an upgrade to T.S. make. ASCAT seems to easily confirm this is a T.D. but i've yet to see 35 kt winds. If continued convective bursting takes place even during DMIN, then pressure falls are likely occurring. Better banding and continued deepening might bring this to T.S. Gonzalo later tonight but i'd be surprised for NHC to quite so quickly pull that trigger. I think that if this system continues to progress then we might see NHC tag this as "Gonzalo" between day-break and noon tomorrow. Sooner then that would really surprise me.