ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

I’d be shocked if this wasn’t declared at 21z.

[chaser1]

sidenote: about 3,000 views in this specific thread over the last couple hours

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/Dam0xDZ.jpg

This is why I have always mentioned that it seems a lot of times the MDR doesn't care much about Kelvin Waves or MJOs, I remember MJ Ventrice back in late June during the record breaking SAL outbreak hyping about a Kelvin Wave passage over the MDR in early July and how it was going to possibly spawn tropical development and I questioned him about it.

[OuterBanker]

Of real interest is that wave emerging from Africa now.
The energy east of 99l seems to have split off and head to that wave.
If it holds together after emerging it seems to be even larger and symmetrically well formed. Expecting an orange X around 14 N 17 W by tomorrow.
I think there will be enough separation for both to survive.

[TheProfessor]

I have to imagine that NHC wanted to see convection persists throughout the day and through DMIN before designating it as a depression. It seems to be doing pretty well with that right now, we'll see. The HWRF is up to it's old antics right now. I don't really see that happening at this moment, though there could be some potential down the road if this storm survives through the western Caribbean and has little land interactions. Then again you can't completely rule it out with these small storms and if Dorian taught us anything, you can never say never in general.

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/Dam0xDZ.jpg

This is why I have always mentioned that it seems a lot of times the MDR doesn't care much about Kelvin Waves or MJOs, I remember MJ Ventrice back in late June during the record breaking SAL outbreak hyping about a Kelvin Wave passage over the MDR in early July and how it was going to possibly spawn tropical development and I questioned him about it.

Totally agree. Just like so many recently screaming "SAL". Hey, everything to a lessor or greater degree might play some role. Obviously there is no negatively impacting affect on 99L by the recently hyped massive Kelvin Wave suggested to cause suppressive and downward sinking motion throughout the Western Atlantic basin. 99L has a low latitude protective pouch with indications of possibly developing an anticyclone over itself. SAL is quite visible on Water Vapor.... but in a progressively westward moving tongue at least 10 degrees west of it and well to the north. Meanwhile, 99L found a Goldilocks location where it appears to be flourishing, outside of any impact of Rosby, Kelvin, or any other latest craze climate defacto buzz-words.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1285623853423656965




 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1285624995612434432

[SFLcane]

Up to 90-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If current trends continue,
advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development of the
system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[chaser1]

Of real interest is that wave emerging from Africa now.
The energy east of 99l seems to have split off and head to that wave.
If it holds together after emerging it seems to be even larger and symmetrically well formed. Expecting an orange X around 14 N 17 W by tomorrow.
I think there will be enough separation for both to survive.

Definitely no issue with regard to distance/separation. The only mitigating factor might be that a significantly larger system might pull in residual SAL to it's north. That and it being a larger envelope system perhaps taking greater time for a center to coalesce and consolidate. If you're right though, that'll just be yet one more hint of the crazy busy season yet to come.

[sma10]

Of real interest is that wave emerging from Africa now.
The energy east of 99l seems to have split off and head to that wave.
If it holds together after emerging it seems to be even larger and symmetrically well formed. Expecting an orange X around 14 N 17 W by tomorrow.
I think there will be enough separation for both to survive.

Is this the feature that the CMC is pushing into Central Caribbean by 240hrs?

[CrazyC83]

21/1730 UTC 9.3N 39.9W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic

[Cpv17]

Of real interest is that wave emerging from Africa now.
The energy east of 99l seems to have split off and head to that wave.
If it holds together after emerging it seems to be even larger and symmetrically well formed. Expecting an orange X around 14 N 17 W by tomorrow.
I think there will be enough separation for both to survive.

Is this the feature that the CMC is pushing into Central Caribbean by 240hrs?

No

[Hurricane Mike]

They'll probably name it a depression at 5pm. I think the bigger concern is what it could do later on in the Western Caribbean or Gulf, should it make it that far.

[chaser1]

21/1730 UTC 9.3N 39.9W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic

1.5's? Isn't that still "sub" TD? 'Course, looking at Dvorak I can't really say that cold cloud tops have further expanded though on visible 99L certainly has not degraded one bit either. I assume that once after Dmin, we'll probably see some serious bombs go off near and over center. Let the banding commence!

[Yellow Evan]

21/1730 UTC 9.3N 39.9W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic

1.5's? Isn't that still "sub" TD? 'Course, looking at Dvorak I can't really say that cold cloud tops have further expanded though on visible 99L certainly has not degraded one bit either. I assume that once after Dmin, we'll probably see some serious bombs go off near and over center. Let the banding commence!

NHC has declared systems at T1.5 plenty of times.

[Steve]

Of real interest is that wave emerging from Africa now.
The energy east of 99l seems to have split off and head to that wave.
If it holds together after emerging it seems to be even larger and symmetrically well formed. Expecting an orange X around 14 N 17 W by tomorrow.
I think there will be enough separation for both to survive.

Is this the feature that the CMC is pushing into Central Caribbean by 240hrs?

It's the one it had at the Yucatan in 240 on Sunday's' runs.

[NDG]

This is very interesting, the leading edge of the next SAL/dust outbreak has formed like a frontal/trough boundary, 99L is well ahead of the leading edge of the SAL, for now. The SAL is not doing much of an advancement to the south and if 99L stays in its low latitude it could very well be a threat to the Windward Islands as the GFS has been trending.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at those multiple Spiral bands rapidly building inwards towards the center..

maybe the HWRF might be at least partially right..

[cainjamin]

This is very interesting, the leading edge of the next SAL/dust outbreak has formed like a frontal/trough boundary, 99L is well ahead of the leading edge of the SAL, for now. The SAL is not doing much of an advancement to the south and if 99L stays in its low latitude it could very well be a threat to the Windward Islands as the GFS has been trending.

This feature shows up pretty well on the CMC's initialization of 99L. Eventually 99L wraps some of this moisture into it's own envelope - the large wave coming off Africa behind 99L seems to help boost this effect too.

[drezee]

Look at those multiple Spiral bands rapidly building inwards towards the center..

maybe the HWRF might be at least partially right..

https://i.ibb.co/2dRrdk1/343434.gif

I must concur...no recon...but geez
We've seen 50 mph TS not look this good