2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

EPS going crazy in early August

https://i.imgur.com/uRFpbTP.png

Are those private or public viewing models?

They are private. You can access them by buying a Weathermodels subscription.

[StruThiO]

[SFLcane]

I will say it,.

The switch has been flipped!!

[toad strangler]

When Levi is barking I'm barking Now just gotta dodge the bullets for 3 months or so

[SFLcane]

When Levi is barking I'm barking Now just gotta dodge the bullets for 3 months or so

We surely have surely dodged them lets hope that luck continues.

[stormlover2013]

Where are all the people it’s a quiet season and blah blah

[northjaxpro]

I see that there are a few more models taking this potentially north of the Caribbean down the road. Tracking this system will be very interesting.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/p85Fl8C.png

Jeez, that’s a lot of ensemble members. Some even get to below 980 mbar!

[Hammy]

CMC and Euro have the same solution with the wave behind TD7 at Day 10, only varying in intensity.

[gatorcane]

Wasn’t the Euro upgraded not too long ago? The GFS and its ensembles are showing nothing coming of this wave that rolls off Africa in 48 hours. When I say nothing I mean not one GFS ensemble develops. You would think at least some ensembles would be showing something. How is the upgraded Euro doing in the EPAC?

[St0rmTh0r]

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Wasn’t the Euro upgraded not too long ago? The GFS and its ensembles are showing nothing coming of this wave that rolls off Africa in 48 hours. When I say nothing I mean not one GFS ensemble develops. You would think at least some ensembles would be showing something. How is the upgraded Euro doing in the EPAC?

Cant rely solely on computers there's a huge margin of error still.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/p85Fl8C.png

Zip on the 18Z GFS though. Let’s see if some GFS ensembles start to light up:

[Kingarabian]

Wasn’t the Euro upgraded not too long ago? The GFS and its ensembles are showing nothing coming of this wave that rolls off Africa in 48 hours. When I say nothing I mean not one GFS ensemble develops. You would think at least some ensembles would be showing something. How is the upgraded Euro doing in the EPAC?

Euro did a very good job sniffing out Douglas. But its hard its fair share of phantoms in the EPAC so far.

[gatorcane]

Thanks useful info on the upgraded Euro EPAC phantom storms. There are still zero GFS ensembles developing the wave exiting Africa in 48 hours as of the 18Z run. While there are many Euro ensembles that develop. Best to lean towards climo in this case and give the nod to the GFS which would be no development more than likely.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Thanks useful info on the upgraded Euro EPAC phantom storms. There are still zero GFS ensembles developing the wave exiting Africa in 48 hours as of the 18Z run. While there are many Euro ensembles that develop. Best to lean towards climo in this case and give the nod to the GFS which would be no development more than likely.

GEM develops it and has had few if any phantom storms to date, and was the only one to correctly develop TD7.

[FireRat]

https://i.imgur.com/p85Fl8C.png

Well dang! With TD 7 now forming in the MDR, we ought to take the models seriously from here on out.

[TheHurricaneGod]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachment ... S15day.png

[aspen]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/508971029994143767/735319037042753596/EPS15day.png

That’s an awful lot of ensemble members showing a major hurricane from that upcoming AEW...some riding right up the East Coast. It’s really early but I’m getting an odd feeling about this.

[FireRat]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/508971029994143767/735319037042753596/EPS15day.png

That’s an awful lot of ensemble members showing a major hurricane from that upcoming AEW...some riding right up the East Coast. It’s really early but I’m getting an odd feeling about this.

Yeah me too, could this be like a '96 Bertha that happens like 3 weeks later? Looks like it will be an interesting time from here onward!

[SoupBone]

I've not been paying much attention to the location of the Bermuda High. Would it allow recurves right now?