ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

I don’t think this is quite a hurricane yet, but 60-65 mph with 75 by 11 pm seems very reasonable. It appears to be intensifying at a good clip currently.

[Aric Dunn]

Idk the rate the eye is becoming more defined in the upper levels..

by the time 11am comes it will be clear..

maybe a special advisory if this keeps up ?

[SFLcane]

55 knots!!!!!!!!!!


22/1130 UTC 9.2N 42.6W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic

Link? We’re is this coming from

[supercane4867]

With Dvorak at T3.5 and AMSU at 44kts. 50kt seems reasonable for 11AM advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

Has there ever been a case where a system went straight from a depression to a hurricane where advisories from the NHC was concerned?

[supercane4867]

It's definitely closer to a hurricane than a TD.



I'd go with 65kts judging by the visible presentation alone.

[Aric Dunn]

It's definitely closer to a hurricane than a TD.

https://i.imgur.com/UpxVqAZ.gif

absolutely.

[EquusStorm]

I don't see them jumping WAY too far in an advisory unless explicitly measured to be so (buoy report or recon or something) and instead just a revision in post-analysis, but given the underestimation here, they're certainly giving themselves something to do in the off season with this one lol

[abajan]

Send Gonzo to Gonzalo ASAP!

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

Finally put the rapid scan floater over it again..

the Eye is coming along quite quickly..

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see them jumping WAY too far in an advisory unless explicitly measured to be so (buoy report or recon or something) and instead just a revision in post-analysis, but given the underestimation here, they're certainly giving themselves something to do in the off season with this one lol

If a clear eye pops out before 11am..

or even a partially clear eye.. they wont have a choice.

[AutoPenalti]

This is wild, it's about to pop out an eye and it's only a tropical depression, can't image what a Cat 1 would look like

[aspen]

I am shocked they STILL haven’t named this. If they keep Gonzalo (it’s not even a question whether it’s a TS now) at 30 kt for 12z, it’s time to riot.

[Nancy Smar]

WTNT62 KNHC 221248
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AutoPenalti]

Officially TS Gonzalo

[Ivanhater]

We have Gonzalo!!

[Aric Dunn]

I figured it would be a Special advisory.

11am. the package will say it rapidly intensified to a hurricane in 2 hours.

you know assuming this eye keep getting better defined as it is now..

[wx98]

This is wild, it's about to pop out an eye and it's only a tropical depression, can't image what a Cat 1 would look like

Well it’s obviously not a tropical depression realistically. I would say 50-60 mph TS.

Edit: Well as soon as I posted I see they went with 45 mph for Gonzalo. I still stand by 50-60 mph.

[Do_For_Love]

Well, here's the MDR storm people were looking for. Earliest "G" storm on record too...Funny that a few days ago it seemed like it might be a while until we got our next storm!