ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Please stop the snark directed at the NHC. There is nothing wrong with giving your opinion about the storm but stop second guessing the professionals. Thanks.

[tolakram]

SLIDER mesoscale view

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1093.4261322021484&y=1079.9346313476562

[supercane4867]

The last Gonzalo formed on October the 12th in 2014.

[GCANE]

We have Gonzalo!!

With some decent gonads

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/StephanieAbrams/status/1285922740722171905

[aspen]

Rejoice, for Gonzalo has arrived.

There goes another one of 2005’s earliest named storm records...doubt it’ll be the last if the Euro/CMC runs are right.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Morning all

I think we all knew Gonz would form today, and another recored broken. I know we are all focused on Gonz, but the wave that just came off Africa is taking shape and may be another one to pay attention to.

[GCANE]

Looking at Visible satellite, its not that much LL inflow into this.
Strengthening is due in large part to UL Outflow, i.e. the anticyclone that started a couple days ago.
That is due in large part to the shifts in Rossby waves and the African Easterly Jet which pretty much opened up the MDR.

Now, the next step.
Looks like in about 72 hrs, the inflow may start to kick in.
Stay tuned.

[WAcyclone]

A 0839Z SMAP pass just came in. The data indicates the system has been a 40 kt storm at that point.

[aspen]

Microwave pass from a few hours ago shows an inner core structure coming along nicely.

[EquusStorm]

Those chunky bands west of center remind me of Dean/Ivan/etc during their initial deepening. Good thing this is July 22 and not August 22 and SAL/shear are still present to the NW

[cainjamin]

Gonzalo is looking pretty good this morning. Looks to me like it's about to wrap a tongue of dry are in from the west though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it level off in intensity for now. Could be a bursting/spiral band pattern that we're seeing with Douglas right now.

[AutoPenalti]

Gonzalo is looking pretty good this morning. Looks to me like it's about to wrap a tongue of dry are in from the west though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it level off in intensity for now. Could be a bursting/spiral band pattern that we're seeing with Douglas right now.

If it's able to mix out the dry air, I think we may see RI.

[cainjamin]

Gonzalo is looking pretty good this morning. Looks to me like it's about to wrap a tongue of dry are in from the west though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it level off in intensity for now. Could be a bursting/spiral band pattern that we're seeing with Douglas right now.

If it's able to mix out the dry air, I think we may see RI.

Yeah, I agree. Pretty good chance of RI if it manages to mix out the dry air by the end of the day. It's going to be a fun couple days in the tropics that's for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

1 min frames extreme zoom.. any questions ? lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hopefully our friends in Barbados and vicinity are paying close attention (I know they are) as the Hurricane models seem to want to bring it your way as a hurricane.

[RT23]

Moste definitely we have been keeping an eye on this, GFS and HWRF showing direct impacts at this time

[HurryKane]

Please stop the snark directed at the NHC. There is nothing wrong with giving your opinion about the storm but stop second guessing the professionals. Thanks.

Having been on the receiving end of public criticism from People Who Don’t Have All The Facts But Think They Know How To Do My Job Better Than I, THIS. There’s probably some very good reasons behind the NHC’s timing.

Anyway, go away Gonzalo.

[NDG]

T3.5 and they go with only 40 knots

[supercane4867]