ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Really dont see how this is 'close to a hurricane'. Clearly it is becoming better organized, but there is no data to support this is anywhere close to hurricane strength yet. I suppose some of us are excited with the 1st 'purely' tropicsl storm of the season. However, I would like to know what the Dvorak numbers say.

It is going to be a threat to the Windward Islands obviously. Storms that stay that far south, especially south of Barbados generally have a difficulty staying together. The models seem to indicate significant weakening when Gonzalo makes it to the hurricane graveyard in the East Carribean.

[northjaxpro]

Good Morning all

I think we all knew Gonz would form today, and another recored broken. I know we are all focused on Gonz, but the wave that just came off Africa is taking shape and may be another one to pay attention to.

Yes indeed. The wave behind Gonzalo will be coming.on
Its heels later.on the next few days and the models are developing it. There is a good chance we may see 91L get named Hanna this weekend. We may have a fifth named storm in the tropical Atlantic just before July ends! This would be amazing if this happens!

[AnnularCane]

So much for my prediction of two storms in July. Well hey come on...it's July! Robust little fellow.

[NDG]

Really dont see how this is 'close to a hurricane'. Clearly it is becoming better organized, but there is no data to support this is anywhere close to hurricane strength yet. I suppose some of us are excited with the 1st 'purely' tropicsl storm of the season. However, I would like to know what the Dvorak numbers say.

It is going to be a threat to the Windward Islands obviously. Storms that stay that far south, especially south of Barbados generally have a difficulty staying together. The models seem to indicate significant weakening when Gonzalo makes it to the hurricane graveyard in the East Carribean.

T3.5 is the Dvorak numbers.

[Aric Dunn]

Really dont see how this is 'close to a hurricane'. Clearly it is becoming better organized, but there is no data to support this is anywhere close to hurricane strength yet. I suppose some of us are excited with the 1st 'purely' tropicsl storm of the season. However, I would like to know what the Dvorak numbers say.

It is going to be a threat to the Windward Islands obviously. Storms that stay that far south, especially south of Barbados generally have a difficulty staying together. The models seem to indicate significant weakening when Gonzalo makes it to the hurricane graveyard in the East Carribean.

T3.5 is the Dvorak numbers.

well that and the eye winking at us sort of gives it away..

[abajan]

Hopefully our friends in Barbados and vicinity are paying close attention (I know they are) as the Hurricane models seem to want to bring it your way as a hurricane.

So I noticed. Quite disconcerting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wrapping up nicely. Hurricane status is definitely possible with Gonzalo.

[ronjon]

Could we be seeing another similar storm and track as this one from July 2005?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Dennis

[Jr0d]

After I wrote that, I took a look at 2004's tracks. Both Charlie and Ivan went south of Barbados...not the storms being major threats, but something to keep in mind. Even though Gonzalo formed much farther east than Charlie, given the time of year and small size, it may be a good comparison for worst case scenerio.

Not trying to be a doomer, and with little model support, it currently looks like Gonzalo will not be a major threat despite him being surprisingly healthy this morning.

[EquusStorm]

All gonna hinge on fighting off dry air and the nominal shear, if it manages to do both in the short term this will be highly intriguing to watch

[SFLcane]

T3.5 and they go with only 40 knots

ADT is lower so it could be a blend.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that Northern eyewall !

clearing eye coming soon !

[RT23]

Look at that Northern eyewall !

clearing eye coming soon !

https://i.ibb.co/ZSRR8py/Capture.png

Looks like a developing fetus in a mothers womb!

[Jr0d]

Could we be seeing another similar storm and track as this one from July 2005?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Dennis

That was the one storm that I was thinking about, but could not remember that was south of Barbados that became a beast.

I was wrong about storms dying that are too far south. There is another major one that was extremely south in the Carribean. It even became an open wave at one point before going major.

[Evil Jeremy]

Gonzalo wouldn't be the first tiny storm to ramp up to Hurricane status in a blink of an eye.

It also wouldn't be the first tiny hurricane to be decapitated by South Caribbean in a blink of an eye.

[TheStormExpert]

Look at that Northern eyewall !

clearing eye coming soon !

https://i.ibb.co/ZSRR8py/Capture.png

An eye!? I doubt that’s an eye.

[aspen]

I can see 55-60 kt for 18z if Gonzalo keeps up this appearance over the next 6+ hours. 65-70 kt might be too high of a jump, but it’s possible, especially if the eye clears out more.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 0, 99N, 430W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 12, 100N, 453W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 12, 100N, 453W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 100N, 477W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 100N, 477W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 100N, 477W, 65, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 101N, 502W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 101N, 502W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 101N, 502W, 70, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 104N, 528W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 104N, 528W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 104N, 528W, 70, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 60, 107N, 556W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 60, 107N, 556W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 60, 107N, 556W, 65, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 72, 114N, 588W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 72, 114N, 588W, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 96, 130N, 660W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0,
AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 120, 150N, 715W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0,

[NDG]

I was looking at the latest dust forecast, as we know Gonzalo is on a low latitude so it is staying south of the dust progressing westward to the north of it this morning. The models show the dust advancing further west than the storm by the time it gets to the Windward Islands on Saturday and as it gets to the eastern Caribbean a break between the two dust outbreaks could move over the storm on Sunday and or Monday.




Compared to short lived TS Don when it formed in the MDR July 17th 2017, it was dealing with a thicker & stronger dust outbreak much closer to its circulation.
BTW, look at that big deep UL trough along the gulf coast & eastern US

[ScottNAtlanta]

Could we be seeing another similar storm and track as this one from July 2005?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Dennis

This reminds me more of Emily than Dennis. Emily also tracked well south of Barbados

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005)