ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

[cainjamin]

A very impressive July MDR storm if you ask me.

[northjaxpro]

Wrapping up nicely. Hurricane status is definitely possible with Gonzalo.

https://i.imgur.com/oQnC3Cv.jpg

Agreed. I absolutely love analyzing and tracking these small tropical cyclones. We have seen our share of these so far this season. It has definitely been fascinating to say the least!

[cainjamin]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Do you think there's a chance for regeneration in the W Carib? A couple of the Euro ensemble members are hinting at it.

[Jr0d]

Isidore and Lily in 2002, Dean and Felix 2006, Mathew 2018 plus the other ones I mentioned were all enteted the Carribean very far south.

I will be keeping a close eye on Gonzalo now. It will be interesting to see how the models will react to the updated information.

[NDG]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Both the GFS and Euro get that shear out of the way. Not sure why both keep dissipating it it, is a small system and I guess is more susceptible to dry air intrusion and disrupting its circulation.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very important...does it pass the Shrimp test?

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285937369431134214

[Aric Dunn]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Both the GFS and Euro get that shear out of the way. Not sure why both keep dissipating it it, is a small system and I guess is more susceptible to dry air intrusion and disrupting its circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/8yNLtRi.png

See the model thread on the importance of model resolution.. likely the cause.

clearly the global models cant resolve the pouch envelope.

[Aric Dunn]

The classic convective pulse down between TS hurricane threshold.

[TheStormExpert]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Some ensembles get it intact into the NW Caribbean and Gulf.

[aspen]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Both the GFS and Euro get that shear out of the way. Not sure why both keep dissipating it it, is a small system and I guess is more susceptible to dry air intrusion and disrupting its circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/8yNLtRi.png

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all keep this weak on approach to the islands, meaning it would be far more susceptible to dry air. The HWRF is much stronger with it in the short term and keeps it alive into the Caribbean Sea. If Gonzalo becomes stronger than anticipated during the next 24-48 hours, it should be able to fend off dry air for longer than most of the global models are showing.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 07, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 3, 99N, 436W, 45, 1000, TS

[drezee]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

In your professional opinion, what do you think will happen?

[gatorcane]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise

[drezee]

Very important...does it pass the Shrimp test?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285937369431134214

Well...if it's shrimp then it must be headed to the Gulf...Forrest Gump approves

[supercane4867]

We are long due for a classic WNW type track Caribbean Cruiser. If Gonzo won't be able to make it, the wave after him probably will.

[toad strangler]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise.

Well, they were all wrong and he appeared. 'cept CMC I believe

[EquusStorm]

I don't think it lasts very long either once it nears the Antilles (neither Danny nor Beryl made it) but I DO think the global models probably aren't 100% on such a tiny feature that's hard to pin down, I'd be far more interested in just observing and seeing how long that little pocket holds... maybe long enough to get a hurricane for climo then dies before bothering anyone lol

[Aric Dunn]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise.

Well, they were all wrong and he appeared. 'cept CMC I believe

yeah global models have been off their rocker this year.

same thing happened with edouard. globals were like nope nothing.. and well that changed lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives.

Looking at the shear tendency on the CIMSS site the shear has been slowly backing off to the west so whats there now probably wont be there this weekend.