ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise.

Well, they were all wrong and he appeared. 'cept CMC I believe

It is the Caribbean shear from the TUTT that I am referring to and it doesn’t look to be subsiding anytime soon which is typical for July. Should start to subside in August.

[Nuno]

We got some time to follow this. Curious to see how it interacts with the dust and dry air once it enters the E. Caribbean, provided it makes it there. Certainly the warning shot for the basin though.

[Ivanhater]

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[HurricaneBrain]

NHC now forecasting Hurricane Gonzalo by tomorrow.
INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

[wx98]

NHC now forecasts 80 mph Cat 1 by tomorrow

11:00 AM AST Wed Jul 22
Location: 9.9°N 43.6°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[Aric Dunn]

They mentioned the eye as well. I am assuming they are just waiting for it to clear more before pulling the trigger.

currently in the pulse down phase as a TS approach hurricane strength. happens to every storm..

[wx98]

Beven mentioned in the discussion that this is a “possibly conservative 45 kt.” I would agree here. I think 45 kt is a reasonable estimate at this point, but you could maybe make a case for 50 or even 55 kts.

[supercane4867]

11AM discussion noted RI as a possibility in the short run.

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1285796323371945989

I made this statement almost 12 hours ago. NHC now agrees

[lhpfish]

Time to check the supplies here in Broward and make sure the boat trailer is in good condition. Good opportunity to get stuff together, even thought it shouldn't be a threat.

On a plus side, if we get skirted by any type of low pressure, it should have the lobsters walking/stacked for Mini Season!

[toad strangler]

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise.

Well, they were all wrong and he appeared. 'cept CMC I believe

It is the Caribbean shear from the TUTT that I am referring to and it doesn’t look to be subsiding anytime soon which is typical for July. Should start to subside in August.

Yeah, the way I see it is that regardless of what happens with Gonzalo, the MDR produced in July. I look forward to mid August on with bated breath.

[Frank2]

Not sure why the forecast NW track after 120 Hours, since something that low on a 270 heading at this time of year is likely bound for Central America.

Any pro met comments?

Thanks

[b0tzy29]

Looks like it jumps up to the 10 degree mark at the end there.

[NDG]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise

The same GFS shows the shear to get out of the way, haven't you looked that?
Is the dry air that it could have a problem with not the shear, as mentioned by the experts at the NHC.

[SFLcane]

Not sure why the forecast NW track after 120 Hours, since something that low on a 270 heading at this time of year is likely bound for Central America.

Any pro met comments?

Thanks

There will be a trof across the SE this upcoming weekend.

[plasticup]

Pretty impressive how quickly this came together in defiance of some of the models. This year we have seen several great demonstrations of usually-reliable models missing or mishandling small systems.

[plasticup]

https://media.giphy.com/media/IdC8Mo5gss8h6Sy8db/giphy.gif
Looks like it jumps up to the 10 degree mark at the end there.

Looks very hurricane-ish to me!

[EquusStorm]

Excellent discussion and forecast at 11 imo; I think we'll probably peak earlier than forecast and decline earlier than forecast as usual with these small systems, but definitely don't want to overdo it just in case the trend doesn't continue

[NDG]

All models not HWRF dissipate it as it nears the Caribbean. Very strong westerly wind shear across the Caribbean now.

Yes the shear is strong and I would be shocked if all the globals are wrong and Gonzalo survives. This shear has been well advertised by the long-range GFS going back to models runs last week so should be of no surprise

The same GFS shows the shear to get out of the way, haven't you looked that?
Is the dry air that it could have a problem with not the shear, as mentioned by the experts at the NHC.

Edit: By the way, the GFS shear forecast has been horrible past its 5 day range forecast, if it would had been right it would had been ripping Gonzalo apart starting tomorrow way before getting the Windward Islands.

[Aric Dunn]

And it looks like the pulse back up and run up to hurricane has begun. convection has wrapped around the west quad ( classic momentum shift during pulse down) as new convection builds on the east side..