ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22951
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Winds still quite light across the Gulf. Had to go back to a 12Z image to capture all obs near the weak low center. I'm pretty sure we'll have a depression by tomorrow. Definitely no TS winds out there now, though. Not much of a gradient yet.
7 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:I mean just says it all..
I say TS by the time recon gets there.. we already had near TS winds out there yesterday and overnight..
https://i.ibb.co/64d3JZY/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-E-Gulf-Coast-02-13-56-Z-20200722-map-plot-35-1n-4-150.gif
Inflow looks better than Gonzo's
1 likes
-
Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Too bad it is in that part of the gulf where surface obs are sparse and too far away to give us accurate data.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
I agree with wxman. I'm a hair less bullish on this today than I was yesterday, as it seems that development is occurring farther west as time goes on. I still expect it to become classified by tomorrow, but I'm not sure what the top end is going to be - maybe 40/45mph offshore or less likely maybe only a TD because it's likely to run out of time before getting super organized. Could be some rain, so I'm going to look into that. There's some new model info, so I'll post that in models thread.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Dylan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 337
- Age: 30
- Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
- Location: New Orleans, LA
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
3 likes
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).
-
gfsperpendicular
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
- Location: Northern Virginia
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Does this currently qualify as "organized deep convection"? I guess I don't completely understand that requirement.
0 likes
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
#1 CMC stan
#1 CMC stan
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Given how intense the squalls were in the Florida Keys yesterday, I think 91L will be able to pull itself together and be classified before making landfall, though not exactlyba scientific assessment. The low is there, the spin is there, there is still plenty of time over bathtub water before making it to Texas. Regardless of the classification it will bring heavy rain and intense squalls to Texas.
0 likes
-
HurricaneBrain
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 520
- Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Clear spin and maintaining convective burst around the center.
Last edited by HurricaneBrain on Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Three upper-level vorts around this:
1) South TX
2) Yucatan
3) FL
A little streamer over this connecting Yucatan and FL.
However, its dissipating.
That will open up the lid for greater updraft development.
Those vorts are ideally positioned to create well defined outflow channels.
Also, as it tracks west it will tap into EPAC high-TPW air.
CAPE in the BOC is currently 4000.
If the lid comes off, it could quickly develop a very strong feeder band.
Heavy convection would open it up.
1) South TX
2) Yucatan
3) FL
A little streamer over this connecting Yucatan and FL.
However, its dissipating.
That will open up the lid for greater updraft development.
Those vorts are ideally positioned to create well defined outflow channels.
Also, as it tracks west it will tap into EPAC high-TPW air.
CAPE in the BOC is currently 4000.
If the lid comes off, it could quickly develop a very strong feeder band.
Heavy convection would open it up.
5 likes
-
EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 34
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Neat. Looks like we're certainly in the opening act. Might be tomorrow before it really gets crankin' but the Gulf can certainly surprise
1 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
HurricaneBrain wrote:Clear spin and maintaining convective burst around the center.
https://im7.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-7-4180dc3b70a5.gif
Lid's coming off.
1 likes
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22951
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
gfsperpendicular wrote:Does this currently qualify as "organized deep convection"? I guess I don't completely understand that requirement.
No, it's not very organized.
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
gfsperpendicular wrote:Does this currently qualify as "organized deep convection"? I guess I don't completely understand that requirement.
It is not organized convection, there is some deep convection associated with it. Even though I am well east of the low, I am still getting occasional squalls that are starting to look more like rain bands.
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
3 likes
-
MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5885
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
91L looks like a rerun of 90L....might close off near Texas coast. No need for recon today IMO.....MGC
0 likes
-
HurricaneBrain
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 520
- Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
91L has much more time over warm Gulf waters and a much higher chance of development than 90L had. Recon would help assist the globals with critical data. Not that comparable.
MGC wrote:91L looks like a rerun of 90L....might close off near Texas coast. No need for recon today IMO.....MGC
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
dantonlsu wrote:
Can you explain what this is inferring?
Classic TD wind-field signature based on IR Satellite analysis.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:dantonlsu wrote:
Can you explain what this is inferring?
Classic TD wind-field signature based on IR Satellite analysis.
That windfield analysis, as far as I've seen, always displays a "closed" low. It's intended to display the extent and position of certain wind speeds, nothing more.
2 likes
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests