ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Somebody needs to inform the recon plane that the low isn't over Alexandria, LA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Steve]

Everything here is out of the east. Small showers are starting to pop up offshore and should be passing throughout the day. Winds are East 8-10 with some higher gusts into the teens. We're pretty far away, and it's mixed clouds and sun. But you know you're close to a tropical system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1285967802436923392

[TheAustinMan]

ScatSat-1 is indicating a circulation quite a bit more robust than what I was anticipating a few days ago. Seems to be evolving in line with the more aggressive mesoscale guidance which is typically what you would not expect. Convection is expected to reduce some this evening along with the diurnal cycle, but should come back in force tomorrow morning. Has until Saturday afternoon to take advantage of conditions in the Gulf.

424KB. KNMI

[cycloneye]

Somebody needs to inform the recon plane that the low isn't over Alexandria, LA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

The mission for 91L departs at 12:45 PM or 16:45 UTC.

[sgastorm]

Somebody needs to inform the recon plane that the low isn't over Alexandria, LA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Maybe it's going to Hawaii to get ready for the Douglas flights? Recon going to be busy with all the storms out there.

[wxman57]

Somebody needs to inform the recon plane that the low isn't over Alexandria, LA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Maybe it's going to Hawaii to get ready for the Douglas flights? Recon going to be busy with all the storms out there.

Yeah, that plane is heading for Hawaii.

[jasons2k]

Looks like it’s closing-off to me. I expect steady organization going forward. The two inhibiting factors will be some dry-air entrainment and limited time over the Gulf. It has the potential to be intensifying quickly just as it’s making landfall, but it’s gonna run out of time. That said, I think some folks are going to be a little surprised when they wake-up Friday morning

[CyclonicFury]

This seems to be more compact and organized than models suggested it would be at this time. I originally thought this wouldn't develop until right before landfall, but it could be much sooner based on recent trends.

[Ubuntwo]

ASCAT

[zhukm29]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/735530526747656252/LATEST.png?width=677&height=677
ASCAT

You beat me to it, was about to post the same image... 30kt barbs already

We're really going to use up all of 2014's names by mid-July aren't we...

[TexasSam]

This might be bad news for the supermarkets Short supplies as it is. Then add this.

[Aric Dunn]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/735530526747656252/LATEST.png?width=677&height=677
ASCAT

Pretty much exactly what I was expecting. .. you beat me to it.

Recon will likely find Hanna

[Hammy]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/735530526747656252/LATEST.png?width=677&height=677
ASCAT

Looks like a TD already, models have been doing really bad this year.

[MarioProtVI]

I’ll be damned if this doesn’t at least get a STWO upping it to at least 80/80 by 1pm.

[wxman57]

Those ASCAT winds look closer to what's being observed across the Gulf than that multi-platform wind graphic. I still think it lacks the organization to be called a TD currently. However, I think it's almost a certainty (99-100%) that a TS will make landfall on the middle TX coast Friday afternoon/evening. Winds 40 kts or so, mostly over water.

[Shell Mound]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/735530526747656252/LATEST.png?width=677&height=677
ASCAT

Looks like a TD already, models have been doing really bad this year.

ScatSat-1 is indicating a circulation quite a bit more robust than what I was anticipating a few days ago. Seems to be evolving in line with the more aggressive mesoscale guidance which is typically what you would not expect. Convection is expected to reduce some this evening along with the diurnal cycle, but should come back in force tomorrow morning. Has until Saturday afternoon to take advantage of conditions in the Gulf.

424KB. KNMI
https://i.imgur.com/pjFR3by.png

Actually, the operational ECMWF has consistently hinted at a compact low-level vortex, owing to the high background pressures and moisture convergence. Given that MSLP in the tropics is highest during July, the month also exhibits a maximum climatological occurrence of TC formation in the Gulf of Mexico vis-à-vis early AEWs and decaying fronts, particularly when SSTs are warmer than average, as they are and have been thus far in recent years, 2020 not excepted. The past several runs of the ECMWF have indeed suggested a compact TC after landfall in TX, owing to orographic lift via frictional convergence over land. So neither the global models nor the mesoscale guidance has necessarily been wrong, at least not entirely so, but have underestimated the pace of short-term organisation over water. Given that vertical wind shear will be modest, PWATs relatively high, and SSTs ample, this system could quickly spin up and become TS Hanna within the next day, so the system has roughly two full days over water prior to landfall in TX. I would certainly not rule out a high-end TS or even a minimal hurricane prior to landfall. 2020 continues to exceed expectations and a “Hurricane Hanna” would certainly sound fitting.

[cycloneye]

Plane ready to depart to investigate 91L. Follow the data on the recon thread.

[loon]

Thunderstorms ahead of it out here in Houston today have been scattered but heavy where they do form, and quite a bit of lightning so far this morning. The GOM seems ripe.. agree that Hanna is not far behind.

[NDG]

Thanks to ASCAT is a lot more organized than many of us thought, including me. That persistent convective cell should had been a sign that it has a well defined LLC attached to it.
I placed the L where ASCAT showed the LLC to be.