2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

JB with his thing.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1285583935393628161

[Evan_Wilson]

I know steering currents are hard to predict, but when does it appear that the blocking pattern becomes favorable for East Coast landfalls?

[chaser1]

I know steering currents are hard to predict, but when does it appear that the blocking pattern becomes favorable for East Coast landfalls?

We're essentially there now. Granted, there will always be fluctuation in 500mb heights but as things stand now mid level steering is largely in place and without any East coast troughing to be seen. Next month will likely show even stronger West Atlantic heights which may result in a few Caribbean long tracks, but also pose potential risk to Florida and all the way north to the Northeast U.S. for those storms that may form at somewhat higher latitudes and that track near or just north of Puerto Rico. These would likely be such storms that might pose the greatest risk to impacting the U.S. seaboard over the next few weeks. I think that risk will increase toward the end of August/beginning of September as western Atlantic mid level heights wane somewhat thus influencing a bit more of a earlier poleward track as tropical cyclones traverse into the W. Atlantic. What'll be key at that precise time is the overall orientation of the 500mb pattern, whether high pressure over the Eastern U.S. appears to be bridging with high pressure over the West Atlantic, and of course where any digging short waves are located suggesting a weakness forming in the ridge (thus resulting in a more poleward turn near/at that point.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72112&fh=6

[SFLcane]

Hyperactive season likely awaits...

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1285608082689658881

[HurricaneEnzo]

One thing that has stuck out to me so far this season is that although most of our development has been on the short lived weaker side ever since the first storm was named we have been getting storms ever since at a consistent pace.

Some seasons you might see some pre/early season formation followed by long lulls in activity. The middle of June was a little on the quiet side but overall we have been churning out storms since May. Not really rooted in any science but I just felt this was a harbinger of bad things to come. It at least looks currently like things could get wild during peak season.

[psyclone]

Impatience does not = unfavorable
Mt St Helens took a couple months of rumbling before it blew its top. The basin is rumbling awake like a long dormant volcano. Some things just take time.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah the early activity is certainly intriguing. A satellite loop of a given hurricane season will show that there are usually a bunch of mid latitude early systems that try, struggle, and maybe get a 30 on the TWO but die off. This year has about the same number but almost EVERYTHING that's tried has succeeded, which certainly seems a little ominous. Reminder that we almost had a subtropical depression in the central Atlantic right before Cristobal which would have been THREE cyclones for May. It's been a fascinating season to track already

[Aric Dunn]

Here is an indicator..

you know things are getting bad when the Euro develops a TC in the eastern cariib.. the graveyard.. the death cap... the beginning and the end.. lol

[SFLcane]

Insane to think the MDR will get even warmer.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1285616623571935232

[aspen]

TD-7 will likely beat Gert ‘05 to become the earliest seventh named storm in the Atlantic basin. At this rate, Harvey ‘05 will likely fall as well, and I don’t think Irene ‘05 is safe either. It all depends on which develops first: Invest 91L, or that AEW forecast to move off the African coast on Friday/Saturday. I’m a little doubtful that 91L will get named; I have more faith in the AEW developing next week. Either way, if any of these form, it will beat out Harvey ‘05.

[CyclonicFury]

Top six hyperactive Atlantic seasons and earliest formation date* in MDR (satellite era)

2005 – 11 Jul
1995 – 12 Jul
2004 – 3 Aug
2017 – 19 Jun
1961 – 17 Jul
1998 – 27 Jul

*TD or stronger

So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.

If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.

The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.

Of course, I am referring to SSTs in the MDR.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284837592874266624

2020 - 21 Jul

[EquusStorm]

The thing with 2005's records is, we had a big August lull between Irene and Jose, so if we're already this far ahead and have an active August, we could pull significantly ahead. It may seem impossible to beat much more of 2005's formation records, but 2011 tied it for earliest 13th named storm with 2012 only a few days behind, so it's certainly not impossible. 2005 only pulled WAY ahead of every other season in October; let's hope we aren't still challenging it then!

[TheHurricaneGod]

The major global models are showing a relaxation in the big heat in the east coast as a strong ridge finally retrogrades west by the end of the month. I am eyeing the potential for a return of cutoff lows that may hang around in the east coast for a few days at a time, a repeat of the pattern that dominated the east coast in May and June. This will likely increase the threat of tropical systems making landfall in the southeast/east coast of the U.S along with a somewhat blocky pattern in Atlantic Canada in early August to prevent recurvatures if it's in the right spot.

Notice that there were a lot of systems tracking off the east coast in late spring. This was due to cutoff lows bringing tropical lows close to the east coast. If this kind of pattern returns in early August, which it has a good possibility of doing so, be worried for potential significant impacts in the EC of the US as well as the Gulf Coast if we get any strong tropical cyclones with the correct steering.

I believe this same kind of pattern brought Hugo in to slam the southeast coast in 1989.

[gatorcane]

Latest SST anomalies. Looks rather warm in the MDR:

[FireRat]

Toasty indeed, and when it really begins to matter too, and it's supposed to continue warming into August!

[SconnieCane]

So...

July 22nd and we have a newly named TS in the MDR looking good and forecast to become a hurricane.

We have an organizing warm core low pressure system in the Gulf, possibly on the verge of becoming a depression if not a TS.

On top of that, we have another wave with model support for development moving off of Africa in the coming days.

It's almost like the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere above it decided to time skip forward by about 35-40 days.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285944854300762116



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285946487822852099



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1285935065671688192



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1285941044454977537



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1285949982797787136

[StruThiO]

This season is already becoming uncomfortable..

Everything everywhere wants to develop AND to add insult to injury the models seem to be playing catchup every time

[psyclone]

There's quite a bit to look at when we're entitled to nothing. The seasonal no man's land...which i like to call the "moat"...is being bridged. It's like the atlantic basin is diet coke and we're dumping mentos. crikey..

[TheHurricaneGod]

This season is already becoming uncomfortable..

Everything everywhere wants to develop AND to add insult to injury the models seem to be playing catchup every time

From dead quiet to active with the snap of a finger.