ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Core is absolutely developing

[Kazmit]

Not surprised that this is strengthening given how small it is. Nevertheless it could be a sign of what’s to come when the MDR is at its prime.

[tolakram]

16:52Z



https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1180.4431762695312&y=1013.9545288085938

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1285982282445185031

[tiger_deF]

Is a genuine eye developing? I thought it was a dry slot at first..

[Ubuntwo]

Is a genuine eye developing? I thought it was a dry slot at first..

It's an eye, with structured convection firing in an eyewall ring.

[Aric Dunn]

Is a genuine eye developing? I thought it was a dry slot at first..

it is a straight up for the last few hours..

[Nimbus]

Another healthy convective cycle burst which means there will still be a circulation with low surface pressure by the time it reaches the islands. I suppose we can wait 48 hours to watch for the forecast weakening. You would think in that short of a time frame they could get an accurate shear forecast out of the models. Hasn't picked up that much forward speed though and at that latitude you would expect some strengthening.

[Kazmit]

This was a “TD” this morning and it already looks like a borderline hurricane on satellite lol.

[Shell Mound]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/735540184845910066/goes16_ir_goes16-meso2_20200722164707.png
Core is absolutely developing

I could be incorrect, but a hurricane in the MDR in July might be a stronger indicator of a hyperactive season than a tropical storm or two.

Seasons with at least one hurricane active in the MDR during the month of July include 1996, 2005, 2008, and 2018, all above average.

Regarding an upgrade, here is an excerpt from a discussion on Beryl ‘18:

Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has
continued to become better organized overnight. An earlier AMSR2
microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a
pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite
channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around
0715 UTC. Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since
that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the
initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the
2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

Source

[Aric Dunn]

Another healthy convective cycle burst which means there will still be a circulation with low surface pressure by the time it reaches the islands. I suppose we can wait 48 hours to watch for the forecast weakening. You would think in that short of a time frame they could get an accurate shear forecast out of the models. Hasn't picked up that much forward speed though and at that latitude you would expect some strengthening.

You do realize the forecast weakening is only because of a blend between all the models....

the global models cannot resolve this... they are being forced data and spitting out crap.

NHC 5pm will almost certainly say they are leaning towards the dynamcial models which show little to no weakening.

[Aric Dunn]

Now is when RI really starts to happen..

[Shell Mound]

This was a “TD” this morning and it already looks like a borderline hurricane on satellite lol.

It looks like a hurricane, period. We’re all doing a “Beryl roll” here. Gonzalo is a stronger version of Beryl ‘18, similarly compact.

[tiger_deF]

Latest frame

[BYG Jacob]

Latest frame https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_07L_202007221655_lat9.9-lon317.0.jpg

Classic looking hurricane

[supercane4867]

Continuous hot tower activity around proto eye

[Do_For_Love]

I was skeptical about an eye forming this morning, but at this point, it seems like that's what going on

[Aric Dunn]

western eyewall starting to exploded now too..

this is about to start bombing out..

[CrazyC83]

It seems there's enough there to go with a 65 kt intensity. I'd go ahead and put out a Special Advisory.

[Frank2]

Dry air impinging on the cyclone from the northwest through northeast - being a small system it's not causing too much of a problem right now...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL072020