ATL: GONZALO - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Global Models are just having a seriously hard time with everything this year..

maybe they can tone down the SAL parameter and the Climatology parameter lol

I believe it’s just struggling with its resolutions.

[Aric Dunn]

Global Models are just having a seriously hard time with everything this year..

maybe they can tone down the SAL parameter and the Climatology parameter lol

I believe it’s just struggling with its resolutions.

every system this year the global models pretty refused to even recognize it until the data of its presence was force-fed into it lol

[toad strangler]

Global Models are just having a seriously hard time with everything this year..

maybe they can tone down the SAL parameter and the Climatology parameter lol

I believe it’s just struggling with its resolutions.

every system this year the global models pretty refused to even recognize it until the data of its presence was force-fed into it lol

Climo bias. Usually it works lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

The Hurricane models (HWRF HMON) deepen this, but even they are not initialized properly (too shallow). The thing is they have been just as consistent in their view as the globals have in wanting to "poof" this. The global models have been playing catch up with this throughout and even the last set were poorly initialized.

[Highteeld]

Trend towards potential Cat 2

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Good post from a user on another forum I'm on that explains the disparity in intensity between models:

[HurricaneFrances04]

Haven't seen anyone post the NAVGEM, which is a bit more bullish than the GFS and EURO.

[Dean4Storms]

Haven't seen anyone post the NAVGEM, which is a bit more bullish than the GFS and EURO.

https://i.imgur.com/ImTxwlj.gif

Yea and don't see how it deepens picking up that much forward speed as it enters the Carib. either. One would expect shear to take its toll.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Haven't seen anyone post the NAVGEM, which is a bit more bullish than the GFS and EURO.

https://i.imgur.com/ImTxwlj.gif

Yea and don't see how it deepens picking up that much forward speed as it enters the Carib. either. One would expect shear to take its toll.

Don't think it's picking up forward speed. It skips around from 6 hour increments to 12 hour increments. I should've waited for the whole run to load on Levi's site. In any case, it is the NOGAPS and should be treated accordingly.

https://imgur.com/4tC9yTh

[sma10]

Global Models are just having a seriously hard time with everything this year..

maybe they can tone down the SAL parameter and the Climatology parameter lol

I believe it’s just struggling with its resolutions.

every system this year the global models pretty refused to even recognize it until the data of its presence was force-fed into it lol

And yet, Euro seems to be quite bullish on the wave exiting Africa soon

[Jr0d]

Haven't seen anyone post the NAVGEM, which is a bit more bullish than the GFS and EURO.

https://i.imgur.com/ImTxwlj.gif

I saw that earlier. If you look at the sheat forecast, it keeps the storm in a bubble of somewhat favorable conditions. The GFS also has a bubble but Gonzalo does not find it. Either way, all these forecasts are prone to large errors after 72 hours, especially with scanty information being uploaded into them.

[NDG]

12z GFS agrees in Gonzalo becoming a hurricane.

[lsuhurricane]

12z Canadian is once again going to be the leader of the pack on this run. 995MB central Caribbean almost south of Jamaica at hr 132. Standing alone on the 12z runs thus far.

ETA: 991 MB approaching Yucatan.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty big change with the CMC. Shows Gonzalo strengthening as it passes south of Jamaica.

12Z GFS holds on to Gonzalo a little longer too, but still opens up south of Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic.

[supercane4867]

12z CMC track is almost identical to Emily 05

[lsuhurricane]

Dueling storms

[supercane4867]

[PTrackerLA]

Run roh 12z CMC. Will be interesting to see if any 12z Euro ensembles latch on to this solution.

[HurricaneFrances04]

HMON has a major in 30 hours (although it's missing hours 0-24 on Levi's site) and still a major as it enters the Caribbean:

https://imgur.com/a/p6J2y3H

ETA: Probably not quite a major in the Caribbean. Looks like it slowly weakens toward the end of run.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1285963690198675458