ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[RT23]

I hope people in the islands are aware of Gonzalo! Seems possible it could pack a punch when it gets there...They probably need all the prep time they can get with COVID and everything

We are watching very closely here in BARBADOS, the EOC is gearing up and preps being made, Volunteer Emergency Teams are on standby. I know cuz I am a Volunteer F.R

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS, CMC, and HWRF have shown a track closer to Barbados. With a stronger storm, I wonder if we see the midterm forecast shift a 1/2 degree north or so.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Do_For_Love]

I hope people in the islands are aware of Gonzalo! Seems possible it could pack a punch when it gets there...They probably need all the prep time they can get with COVID and everything

We are watching very closely here in BARBADOS, the EOC is gearing up and preps being made, Volunteer Emergency Teams are on standby. I know cuz I am a Volunteer F.R

Good to hear man! Best of luck to you guys, hopefully something will stop Gonzalo's momentum before it gets to you

[tiger_deF]

Looking better every frame

[MississippiWx]

I do not envy the NHC this season. The models have largely been little help. Gonzalo is going to be a tough one for them. The lack of model accuracy 48 hours out is alarming. So far, statistical models seem to be more helpful.

[BYG Jacob]

I do not envy the NHC this season. The models have largely been little help. Gonzalo is going to be a tough one for them. The lack of model accuracy 48 hours out is alarming. So far, statistical models seem to be more helpful.

The meso models have been more help so far, and they have their own issues.

[FireRat]

Wow, another over-achiever in this 2020 season!
Gonzalo is quickly attempting to become a hurricane, hopefully the less than ideal conditions in the eastern Caribbean will put the brakes on this thing. Those of you in the southern leewards watch out!

Landfall is looking likely sometime later on 7/25, Saturday. Hopefully as a weakening TS.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF nailed the SAL surge and low level increased flow. it has far overshot Gonzalo and flattend out to the north. and Gonzalo has not really increased in speed as the global models were saying.

Threat to isalnds from a major is increasing as the hours go by and the dry air stays behind that boundary.

[Highteeld]

Big CB going on right now, would seem to herald more intensification in the short term. SHIPS RI probs are up a fair amount per 12z run, so a cat 2-3 hurricane might not be out of the question by Friday or Saturday.

[northjaxpro]

I do not envy the NHC this season. The models have largely been little help. Gonzalo is going to be a tough one for them. The lack of model accuracy 48 hours out is alarming. So far, statistical models seem to be more helpful.

Agree. Yeah, it is going to.be a very, very long and very hyperactive tropical cyclone season for the gang down there in Coral Gables. It already has been a record breakng season and we are only approaching the end of July!

I tip my hat to the NHC. It is a very tough , pressure cooker responsiblity they deal with daily. I definitely do not envy them st all!!

[EquusStorm]

Oh you want a July MDR tropical storm? Too bad, it's 2020, enjoy your category three

[FireRat]

Oh you want a July MDR tropical storm? Too bad, it's 2020, enjoy your category three

the brutality of 2020...

[aspen]

Partial eyewall seen in a microwave pass from 2 hours ago:

[RT23]

Latest Model Runs, GFS and CMC ( lets put HWrf aside ) have all aligned with a direct pass over Barbados, CMC previous run was south of Bdos. Yikes! This is getting a bit too close to home ....

[HurricaneEnzo]

HWRF getting the 'W' thus far. It has been the most in line with actuality versus the other major models. Stronger storm equals a more resilient, slower, slightly more Northerly storm which at least increases the odds some this doesn't fizzle out in a few days. Speed being the real x factor imo. Slow enough and the SAL will shoot on past it.

[Shell Mound]

Big CB going on right now, would seem to herald more intensification in the short term. SHIPS RI probs are up a fair amount per 12z run, so a cat 2-3 hurricane might not be out of the question by Friday or Saturday.

https://i.imgur.com/pkMbSeM.png

 https://twitter.com/AnthonyMweather/status/1285997149147324416



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285991760179716099



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1285998247241285632

[storminabox]

Looking better every frame
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_07L_202007221735_lat9.9-lon317.0.jpg

Looks like it is developing a bit of an eye feature

[aspen]

The eye has been obscured by that pretty impressive hot tower. RI may commence once that wraps around the center.

[Hammy]

Partial eyewall seen in a microwave pass from 2 hours ago:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al07/amsusr89/2020al07_amsusr89_202007221515.gif

Whatever that is to the north looks like it could prevent dry air intrusion for awhile, at least from the north.

[abajan]

HWRF getting the 'W' thus far. It has been the most in line with actuality versus the other major models. Stronger storm equals a more resilient, slower, slightly more Northerly storm which at least increases the odds some this doesn't fizzle out in a few days. Speed being the real x factor imo. Slow enough and the SAL will shoot on past it.

Speaking of speed, has anyone noticed the line in the latest TWD about the wave west of Gonzalo moving west at 20 to 25 knots?

I wonder if Gonzalo will soon follow suit. Hmm