ATL: GONZALO - Models

[SFLcane]

The GFS is stronger and more north on the 18Z run with strengthening in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Quite a change:

https://i.postimg.cc/Wb3Ky0H5/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-19.png

Quite the trend..

[gatorcane]

Ut oh, emerging in the SE Bahamas heading towards a weakness:

[ColdMiser123]

Illustrating this change with the 850 hPa forecast low level wind flow.

Yesterday's 18z run had >35 KT in the central Caribbean immediately adjacent to Gonzalo, which is a very hostile situation, given the weak upper level flow. This represents a good amount of wind shear for a small cyclone like Gonzalo.



However, there is increased separation with this fast flow with today's new GFS run. The stronger storm initially results in a more poleward motion which allows the storm to not travel as far west over the same distance, and separates it more from the extremely hostile wind flow to the west.



However, if Gonzalo goes too poleward with a small circulation, dissipation could then be on the table with a track over Hispaniola.

In short, a stronger storm initially should increase Gonzalo's chances in the long run, but it has to be a delicate balance between avoiding the unfavorable low level wind flow, and the islands to the north.

[gatorcane]

Ut oh, emerging in the SE Bahamas heading towards a weakness:

https://i.postimg.cc/N0fpytvp/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-25.png

[HurricaneFrances04]

Here is the 12Z NAVGEM (ignore the jump at the end, it is still missing some plots on Levi's site) that I didn't bother posting before because I thought the solution was silly, but now has backing from the GFS. Not sure about holding up over Hispaniola though

[gatorcane]

Riding along northern coast of Cuba:

[HurricaneFrances04]

^ Don't think you could rule out regeneration in the Florida Straits or Gulf of Mexico if that solution played out

[gatorcane]

Headed for GOM:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm starting to get deja-vu. We saw this last year with Dorian, models kept the storm too weak, too far south. Most showed dissipation in the Caribbean. Not saying this is another Dorian as the environmental conditions favor dissipation more than not, but watch for any unexpected shifts north in track.

[NDG]

Surprise surprise, the GFS doesn't kill Gonzalo in the eastern Caribbean, Hispaniola does, at least in this run. The Canadian continues to lead the pack as somebody mentioned earlier

[Aric Dunn]

This run is almost completely due to the SAL surge having pushed well passed Gonzalo as of now with a surge of deep moisture coming in behind it.

The surge had little to no effect of Gonzalo's forward motion with the previous many runs of the GFS were showing it speed up.

[AutoPenalti]

Here is the 12Z NAVGEM (ignore the jump at the end, it is still missing some plots on Levi's site) that I didn't bother posting before because I thought the solution was silly, but now has backing from the GFS. Not sure about holding up over Hispaniola though

https://i.imgur.com/ZN9Htw9.gif

Welp, I’m not too surprised to be honest.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is also stronger

[TheStormExpert]

The reason that the 12z Euro quickly kills Gonzalo is it initializes it wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF.. 116kts heading towards barbados.

[CyclonicFury]

18z HWRF seems unrealistic. 99 kt at 09z tomorrow?

[Aric Dunn]

18z HWRF seems unrealistic. 99 kt at 09z tomorrow?

why ? there is already a closed eyewall up through the mid levels... would not take much to RI.

[CrazyC83]

Also given the tiny size and proximity to a ridge, a pressure around 975 would likely be a major hurricane.

[Cpv17]

18z HWRF seems unrealistic. 99 kt at 09z tomorrow?

It’s the HWRF. Should you be surprised? Lol

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/markniss_/status/1286059723410808833




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1286082525975150592