ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#241 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:57 pm

Convective burst 25.8N 88W
Recon is just south of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#242 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:58 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I am definately watching those names with a H can sneak up on people...


Models are honing in on an area from Vic to CC for very high qpf totals.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#243 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:58 pm

I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#244 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:03 pm

Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#245 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:04 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.


I agree, broad, weak circulation without any organized convection. No wind to 20 kts yet. Heading for NE side now. No Hanna today. Tomorrow night...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#246 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:04 pm

GCANE wrote:Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.


yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#247 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.


I agree, broad, weak circulation without any organized convection. No wind to 20 kts yet. Heading for NE side now. No Hanna today. Tomorrow night...



Agree, nothing tonight but a definite Tropical Storm or even hurricane threat for Texas in 2-4 days, IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#248 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:06 pm

Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away! ;-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#249 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.


yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.


Waiting to see what rain rate they measure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#250 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:08 pm

That was a weird turn.. definitely defined circ.. why they are avoiding it.. idk lol

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#251 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:08 pm

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.


yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.


Waiting to see what rain rate they measure.


Winds picking up. 15 knts SFMR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#252 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:That was a weird turn.. definitely defined circ.. why they are avoiding it.. idk lol

https://i.ibb.co/0YRFf2T/Capture.png


About two minutes ago, I was just thinking about the infamous "Back Up, Back Up" from Reed Timmer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#253 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:23 pm

Just checked CIMSS.
Twin vorts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#254 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away! ;-)

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#255 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:26 pm

91L is clearly NOT a TC yet. Broad circulation, limited convection. We shall see what tonight brings. Most likely will be better organized by tomorrow morning. NHC might consider PTC advisories later tonight. Should be a moderate to top end TS by landfall in Texas......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#256 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:27 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away! ;-)

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking


:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#257 Postby Craters » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:29 pm

I might be misinterpreting this, but it seems to me that the GOES-EAST mid-level water-vapor channel (Band 9) is showing quite a bit of relatively dry air surrounding a good bit of our friend:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=09&length=24

I'm wondering if that's what's keeping the convection from taking off. The upper- and lower-levels (check the band-selection dropdown), on the other hand, don't seem to have much of a moisture problem.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#258 Postby Craters » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:33 pm

GCANE wrote:
Craters wrote:
GCANE wrote:Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz


GCANE --

A question showing my ignorance, here -- do you have any idea how they get CAPE data for locations like that, out in the middle of nowhere?

Thanks...



It comes from models which would then be an estimate.
Exactly what obs they use and the differential equations I am not sure.


Okay -- that makes sense. I was wondering if some genius came up with a way of deriving CAPE values from satellite observations, buoy data, and sunspot activity or something. Guess not.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#259 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away! ;-)

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking


:lol:


Possibility that you might not get much rain from this in southwest Houston. Could be a sharp gradient to your south/sw.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#260 Postby fendie » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:45 pm

Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.
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