fendie wrote:Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.
Definitely avoiding the center.
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fendie wrote:Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.
HurricaneBrain wrote:I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.
MoliNuno wrote:HurricaneBrain wrote:I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.
Has a set criteria ever been explained for initiation of PTC advisories? It seems there are several instances where a PTC would be useful and the NHC just rarely seems to issue them.
Aric Dunn wrote:fendie wrote:Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.
Definitely avoiding the center.
Dean_175 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:fendie wrote:Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.
Definitely avoiding the center.
Why?
Cpv17 wrote:
Possibility that you might not get much rain from this in southwest Houston. Could be a sharp gradient to your south/sw.
wxman57 wrote:No upgrade. Too disorganized. 90% after 48 hrs (right as it reaches the TX coast, I guess). Probably becomes a TS tomorrow night.
cycloneye wrote:80% / 90%Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
1. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations
indicate that an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the
accompanying shower and thunderstorm activity is still poorly
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be
required for portions of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana tonight
or on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
zhukm29 wrote:Pretty large blowup is occurring as we speak:
https://i.ibb.co/6BMB5tG/goes16-ir-91-L-202007222102.gif
CrazyC83 wrote:wxman57 wrote:No upgrade. Too disorganized. 90% after 48 hrs (right as it reaches the TX coast, I guess). Probably becomes a TS tomorrow night.
That's what I think: 90/90. PTC 8 depends on if we are in watch range.
Nimbus wrote:Sharp drop in pressure near the center.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT
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