ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'm getting the impression right now that Gonzalo isn't evacuating air and ventilation quite enough. He needs to do some venting.

Could that be a result of the suppressive Kelvin wave?

Edit: Looks like there's some northerly or northwesterly shear moving in and a lot of the high cloud flow to the west is out of the west.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we are going to get some strong dry line convection with that boundary. effectively keeping Gonzalo in a happy moist pouch..

[BYG Jacob]

Again, what makes people believe shear or dry air is bothering this storm right now?

[Ivanhater]

Definitely has lost a good bit of its CDO, let's see if we get some big bursts of convection overnight

[Aric Dunn]

Again, what makes people believe shear or dry air is bothering this storm right now?

the only model left standing.. the euro lol

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1286091492235317249

[tolakram]

Looks weaker.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=862.4488830566406&y=1065.4658813476562

[aspen]

Hopefully Gonzalo can get its SAL situation sorted out, so it can quickly become the first hurricane of the year and do so with enough time for shear to weaken it before it reaches the islands.

[supercane4867]

It appears to be shrinking in size in order to cope with surrounding dry environment.

[cycloneye]

Guess what,despite the recent debate about the sal 00z best track goes up to 50 kts.

07L GONZALO 200723 0000 9.9N 45.4W ATL 50 999

[USTropics]

Again, what makes people believe shear or dry air is bothering this storm right now?

Dry air is definitely the main inhibiting factor currently.

It's evident in WV imagery:


Model forecasts:


Initial model analysis of RH values:


CIMSS products:


NHC discussion:

microwave imagery suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest of the cyclone.

That doesn't preclude Gonzalo from recovering later this evening and undergoing some robust strengthening, but it's hard to deny it currently is having an impact. If the shear can stay relaxed, Gonzalo should have no problems pushing a moisture field in front to make the environment more suitable for strengthening. The last few hours though, it has undoubtedly lost some convection due to dry air entrainment.

[HurricaneEnzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

SAL is bearing down on Gonzalo and he is starting to lose the battle. But at the same time he is also getting closer to better conditions as most of the SAL has passed him by.

Just a little bit more to deal with but the only way out is through. If he can hold on a while longer might have a chance for bigger things.

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[Aric Dunn]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

SAL is bearing down on Gonzalo and he is starting to lose the battle. But at the same time he is also getting closer to better conditions as most of the SAL has passed him by.

Just a little bit more to deal with but the only way out is through. If he can hold on a while longer might have a chance for bigger things.

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There is a good surge of moisture coming from east. convection building along the boundary of the SAL is also pointing to this moisture coming in. will be an interesting night.

convection is also building in a band out to the NW of Gonzalo as we speak.

a sign the "tongue" of dry air is fading.

[TheProfessor]

There's definitely been some trouble dealing with dry air this evening. How Gonzola deals with it tonight could have significant impacts down the road and for many people.

[Hurricane Mike]

Clearly both Gonzalo and Invest 91L didn't quite get where I expected.

Around 3pm, I thought Gonzalo would be a hurricane by 11pm, and I expected a tropical storm by 11pm in the Gulf of Mexico. I was wrong on both fronts. The last six hours have been pitiful for both our systems. Still a chance for both to exceed expectations tonight and tomorrow, though.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Clearly both Gonzalo and Invest 91L didn't quite get where I expected.

Around 3pm, I thought Gonzalo would be a hurricane by 11pm, and I expected a tropical storm by 11pm in the Gulf of Mexico. I was wrong on both fronts. The last six hours have been pitiful for both our systems. Still a chance for both to exceed expectations tonight and tomorrow, though.

Today was a reminder that it's still only mid July.

[TheProfessor]

It does, however, look like that Gonzalo is rebuilding it's inner core fairly quickly and if it can keep that dry air on the northeast side of the system out of it's center then it could start taking off again, especially with D-Max approaching.

[Hammy]

Anybody else notice the massive rush of air outward away from Gonzalo to the west? It's starting to take on the look of a highly sheared fast mover that's more typical of this time of the year.

[gatorcane]

The Euro continues to show pretty steady weakening over the next couple of days. I wouldn’t discount the Euro here. It could be right looking at the state of struggling Gonzalo this evening. May not make it to a hurricane.

[northjaxpro]

Clearly both Gonzalo and Invest 91L didn't quite get where I expected.

Around 3pm, I thought Gonzalo would be a hurricane by 11pm, and I expected a tropical storm by 11pm in the Gulf of Mexico. I was wrong on both fronts. The last six hours have been pitiful for both our systems. Still a chance for both to exceed expectations tonight and tomorrow, though.

Today was a reminder that it's still only mid July.

We still have tomorrow for both Gonzalo and Invest 91 to bounce back and potentially flex their muscle. Let us see what shakes down. Remember, it is 2020, and with all the craziness we have seen in this year in this world, I am still expecting the atypical trend of things to keep on happening.