ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[TheProfessor]

The Euro continues to show pretty steady weakening over the next couple of days. I wouldn’t discount the Euro here. It could be right looking at the state of struggling Gonzalo this evening. May not make it to a hurricane.

The Euro might be right, but it's sort of for the wrong reasons. It's continuously had to play catch up with this storm and had underestimated it's current intensity as well. Due to this it's seeing a weaker system in a more hostile environment and likely correctly weakening it in that case. But because of that the Euro is riding a fine line since if Gonzalo is able to fight this bout of dry air and become a hurricane, then the Euro will be completely wrong.

[AutoPenalti]

Gonzalo shrunk in size but it’s definitely trying to stay alive.

[Aric Dunn]

Anybody else notice the massive rush of air outward away from Gonzalo to the west? It's starting to take on the look of a highly sheared fast mover that's more typical of this time of the year.

it also went north and east and south earlier..

I believe it was some mid level pressure wave from the sustained convection earlier.

[NDG]

Anybody else notice the massive rush of air outward away from Gonzalo to the west? It's starting to take on the look of a highly sheared fast mover that's more typical of this time of the year.

it also went north and east and south earlier..

I believe it was some mid level pressure wave from the sustained convection earlier.

Yes, is not at the surface.

[Ivanhater]

Are we sure this doesn't fizzle overnight? It is shrinking more and more

[cycloneye]

3.5 dvorak T numbers.

A. 07L (GONZALO)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 9.9N

D. 44.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING REUSLTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT ARE 3.5
BASED ON RAPID 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[Hammy]

Center is west of the convection.

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhh a lot of intensity models are favoring A major or close to one.

 https://twitter.com/TheZodiac13/status/1286107215976431621




Edit: Wow this is even more bullish

[NDG]

18z GFS did a good job of forecasting the convection to diminish this evening, it shows convection returning after midnight into the morning and making a run for hurricane tomorrow evening.

[EquusStorm]

Gonna have some work to do at DMax. These tiny storms can explosively ramp up AND down... really hoping it hasn't decided to do the latter so soon, just gimme a MDR July hurricane real quick for the stats lol

Still has some time but we see time and time again storms that look really good struggling with dry air long enough that they just can't recover fully, probably will be able to mix it out and intensify again but won't know til it happens I guess

[AutoPenalti]

Are my sleepy eyes deceiving me or is it starting to look convection free?

[aspen]

Are my sleepy eyes deceiving me or is it starting to look convection free?

Just sleepy eyes. Gonzalo is tiny and doesn’t have the best convection at the moment, but it should start popping some new hot towers within the next few hours.

[gatorcane]

There is the tongue of dry mid-level air ahead of Gonzalo. Tough road ahead for this tiny storm:

[shiny-pebble]

Uhhh a lot of intensity models are favoring A major or close to one.

 https://twitter.com/TheZodiac13/status/1286107215976431621




Edit: Wow this is even more bullish

Woahhh.... Is something wrong??? That cant be right, right???

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[MississippiWx]

Anybody else notice the massive rush of air outward away from Gonzalo to the west? It's starting to take on the look of a highly sheared fast mover that's more typical of this time of the year.

That appeared to be a gravity wave caused by the collapse in convection from earlier. It went in all directions. Just a theory.

[MississippiWx]

There is the tongue of dry mid-level air ahead of Gonzalo. Tough road ahead for this tiny storm:

https://i.postimg.cc/BvWcD7wP/g16split.jpg

The atmosphere is fluid. Much like a current shear map doesn’t indicate future shear, this SAL product doesn’t indicate dry air in its path. Now, there will be dry air in the vicinity of Gonzalo at all times, but it won’t be that area in front of it that’s the culprit. It will be the area to the north.

[aspen]

https://imgur.com/QpDa4pt

Uhhh a lot of intensity models are favoring A major or close to one.

https://twitter.com/TheZodiac13/status/1286107215976431621

Edit: Wow this is even more bullish

Woahhh.... Is something wrong??? That cant be right, right???

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It’s 2020, absolutely nothing is normal. I would assume those that get Gonzalo to Cat 5 are following a 12z CMC track, where it survives entering the Caribbean and takes a similar path to the Gulf like Emily and Allen, thereby sending it over the highest SSTs and OHC in the basin. It’s still too early to say if that track is going to play out, but I’m inclined to say it won’t.

[SFLcane]

https://imgur.com/QpDa4pt

Uhhh a lot of intensity models are favoring A major or close to one.

https://twitter.com/TheZodiac13/status/1286107215976431621

Edit: Wow this is even more bullish

Woahhh.... Is something wrong??? That cant be right, right???

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Those are experimental Kerry Emanuel models. They're theoretical things

[gfsperpendicular]

Some new towers. Maybe Gonzalo is on the road to recovery?

[EquusStorm]

It just needs to stay in its protective pocket and not outrun the deep moisture feed; as much as I'm onboard the Hurricane Gonzalo train and have been since before it got classified, that environment to the NW ain't ideal if it plows into it too quickly. The model spread is insane and you just gotta wonder which one, if any, is both initializing Gonzalo properly AND recognizing the subtle small-scale environment and factors around it that will be key to either long track survival or an ignominious demise.