ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Slowing down the forecast a little sounded like a possible stall till Sunday landfall under that building high?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Wrong thread

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html


SAL is bearing down on Gonzalo and he is starting to lose the battle. But at the same time he is also getting closer to better conditions as most of the SAL has passed him by.

Just a little bit more to deal with but the only way out is through. If he can hold on a while longer might have a chance for bigger things.

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I believe you posted this in the wrong thread. Insightful to see the SAL-Gonzalo interactions, though.

[cycloneye]

PTC at 11.

Potential Tropical Cyclone EIGHT
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 23, 2020:

Location: 25.7°N 87.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[aspen]

It’s PTC-8 on Tropical Tidbits

[Nimbus]

It’s PTC-8 on Tropical Tidbits

The high cirrus in the water vapor loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[northjaxpro]

Smart move by NHC to post the PTC advisory this evening!

[zhukm29]

Last visible shots for the day... will be interesting to see how PTC 8 evolves tomorrow.

[sphelps8681]

PTC at 11.

Potential Tropical Cyclone EIGHT
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 23, 2020:

Location: 25.7°N 87.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

I am sorry where would this be located?

[aspen]

It’s PTC-8 on Tropical Tidbits

The high cirrus in the water vapor loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

That’s a lot of moisture for PTC-8 to work with. It’ll also be over water for 48-72 hours. The biggest issue will be how broad the circulation is, which can be seen in that WV loop.

[cycloneye]

PTC at 11.

Potential Tropical Cyclone EIGHT
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 23, 2020:

Location: 25.7°N 87.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

I am sorry where would this be located?

Here is the link to tropical tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[cycloneye]

Here is the transition of the 00z best track from 91L to 08L.

AL, 08, 2020072300, , BEST, 0, 257N, 879W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018, TRANSITIONED, alC12020 to al082020,

[Nimbus]

It’s PTC-8 on Tropical Tidbits

The high cirrus in the water vapor loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

That’s a lot of moisture for PTC-8 to work with. It’ll also be over water for 48-72 hours. The biggest issue will be how broad the circulation is, which can be seen in that WV loop.

When the high cirrus clouds expand outward like that it highlights the ridge building up around 200 mb's.
Centered in a ridge dome the steering currents often collapse giving more time for development.
Even 24 hours of delay before landfall can make a big difference in flooding and sometimes even intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

Fading convection everywhere except right over the center.. good sign of an organizing TC.

and pressure continues to fall at the buoy right near the convection

[MississippiWx]

Fading convection everywhere except right over the center.. good sign of an organizing TC.

and pressure continues to fall at the buoy right near the convection

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=42001&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

Yeah it needed to rid itself of all the other scattered convection. Centralized convection will help this tighten up quicker. I think most models are sleeping on this one.

[HurricaneBrain]

Recon headed back at 5:45 am EDT. I have my bets on them finding Hanna then.
 https://twitter.com/mikeadcockwx/status/1286118131174453249

[HurricaneBrain]

We have Tropical Depression 8. Skipped the PTC designation. Tropical Storm watch issued for most of Texas coast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Straight to TD

[EquusStorm]

TD8. That happened fast

[Aric Dunn]

We have Tropical Depression 8.

Makes sense. the llc was defined enough earlier from recon.. just lacked organized convection.

now we have some better organized convection around the center.

though I wish recon had sampled the full wind field. we would probably already have Hanna