Will 2020 reach the Greek Alphabet names in the Atlantic?

[CyclonicFury]

With the Atlantic setting record after record for earliest named storm (and we'll likely see #8 from TD 08L), and an SST profile similar to hyperactive seasons, it appears there is a legitimate nonzero chance that 2020 could reach the Greek Alphabet names.

To put some things into perspective, if we had a near-average number of named storms from this date forward (11), we'd end the season on Sally, which would be 18 named storms. Last season had 16 named storms after August 20 alone. To reach the Greek Alphabet, we would need 15 named storms from this point forward. It's a bit of a high total, but it's definitely not out of the question if the Atlantic continues to produce a lot of additional weak, short-lived storms. CSU predicted 20 named storms in their July forecast, which is their highest ever for a pre-August forecast.

We've had some seasons that were on pace to do such but failed to do so. 2010 came only 3 names short, but only had 2 named storms before August. 2011 was nearly on pace with 2005 for a while, having 17 tropical storms by September 24, but only 2 named storms formed after the end of September, so the season ultimately finished with 19. 2012 had 13 named storms before September 4, but only 2 named storms formed in September and none formed in November. I'd say the most plausible way the Greek Alphabet could be reached is 1 more storm in July from 08L, 4 in August, 6 in September, 3 in October and 1 in November.

I'd say it's still highly unlikely we approach any of 2005's named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE totals - but 22 named storms (Alpha) doesn't seem to be far-fetched enough to dismiss as a possibility. What do you think?

[StruThiO]

honestly, i think it's likely

[supercane4867]

It would be cool to see the name Eta being used.

[TheStormExpert]

Ask me again in a month or two.

[aspen]

With Hanna likely to form tomorrow, if we follow the pace of 2016-19, we will end up with somewhere between 19 and 24 named storms. So yes, I think Greek names are highly likely. It’ll take a semi-lackluster ASO (something closer to average or slightly above average years) to keep the Atlantic from exhausting this year’s name list.

[EquusStorm]

Alpha quite probably at this rate, Zeta unlikely, Omega... I'm moving to The Yukon

[cycloneye]

This time no poll to let the members discuss about this.I say it will be close by one shy.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I think we manage to get to Beta (maybe Gamma if there's an unnamed storm missed or something but I find that unlikely), but I could easily see this season falling short of the Greek alphabet or making a run at 2005's total.

Heaven forbid something as damaging as Hurricane Beta (2005) occurs again.

[AxaltaRacing24]

yes

we simply just have to follow a pace that is slightly more active than 2019. i think the background state this season can support that.

[Ubuntwo]

yes

we simply just have to follow a pace that is slightly more active than 2019. i think the background state this season can support that.

At this point we could continue the rest of the season below 2019's pace and still reach greek letters. Doesn't seem like a stretch

[EquusStorm]

It wouldn't be hard at all to equal 2005 numbers in August and September, which I think are 5 and 5, but doing that AND getting 7 in October and 4 beyond that might be harder to sustain. It's obviously the best shot since the 2010-2012 sequence at reaching at least Alpha though, need five less than the 2005 total to reach that milestone

[Dean_175]

This year is pretty promising. But I was also somewhat disappointed in 2010. While it saw 19 named storms, it was suppressed in July-mid August and it came to a fairly sudden end with no late season activity in November. If we had any of those two, we would have exhausted the list.
Assuming we get Hanna in the next couple days we would still need something like August : 4 storms, September: 5 storms, October : 4 storms November: 1 storm- to reach the Greek letters.

[Dean_175]

This year is pretty promising. But I was also somewhat disappointed in 2010. While it saw 19 named storms, it was suppressed in July-mid August and it came to a fairly sudden end with no late season activity in November. If we had any of those two, we would have exhausted the list.
Assuming we get Hanna in the next couple days we would still need something like August : 4 storms, September: 5 storms, October : 4 storms November: 1 storm- to reach the Greek letters.

[HurricaneEdouard]

I will go out on a limb and, conditional on Tropical Depression 8 yielding Hanna (which would beat the formation of Harvey by around a week), predict that we will eclipse 2005's operational total of 27, possibly even true total of 28. We might have fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the MDR SSTs are warmer than this time of year in 2005, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have multiple Category 5 hurricanes that would significantly add to the thus-far lacklustre ACE totals. (See https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 7853602817)

My admittedly blunt reasoning behind this, aside from the warmer SSTs, is that, looking at the data, most seasonal activity predictions are too conservative in cleaving closer to mean averages and fail at the tail ends of the distribution curve; extremely quiet seasons tend to be quieter than seasonal activity predictions, and extremely hyperactive seasons tend to be more active. In August 2005, CSU predicted 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes; NOAA predicted 18–21 named storms, 9–11 hurricanes, and 5–7 major hurricanes; TSR predicted 22.1 named storms, 11.4 hurricanes, and 7.8 major hurricanes; all three significantly undercounted the true totals of 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. As of July 2020, CSU is predicting 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, and while I am aware this is entirely a meta-forecast rooted in statistical analysis of by what margins CSU's seasonal activity forecasts fail in July/August predictions at the extremes of inactive/hyperactive seasons, I am fairly confident 2020 will, at least, surpass CSU's forecast.

I will note, as well, that, Katrina, Rita and Wilma notwithstanding, 2005's ASO wasn't actually all that impressive, activity-wise. Its August featured 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane; in comparison, 2004's August featured 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, 2012's August featured 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes, 1933's August featured 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (two Category 4s and one Category 5), 1995's August featured 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, and 2017's August featured 5 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. 2005's September produced 5 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes; in comparison, 2002's September produced 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, 2010's September produced 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, 1961's September produced 6 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, and 2017's September produced 4 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 2005's October produced 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes; 1950's October produced 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Now, you will note I shift in terminology from featured to produced, as I was initially counting storms that formed in the last three days of July and persisted into August, before shifting my method of counting to include only tropical cyclones that formed within that month, but the metrics of comparison were consistent season-to-season; that is to say, the monthly comparisons between seasons are all apples-to-apples, rather than apples-to-oranges. Overall, it becomes apparent that 2005's insane storm totals are mostly carried on the back of its record-breaking July (which, at least in terms of storm totals, was more active than its August, with 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes) and November (3 named storms), and its major hurricane totals are similarly carried on the back of July's absolutely anomalous (insomuch as they sequentially broke the record for July's most intense hurricane) Dennis and Emily; 1950 formed all six of its major hurricanes in ASO, as did 1933 and 2017.

In other words, 2005's ASO could have been more active than it was; if 2020 features an ASO more active than 2005, at least in terms of number of named storms (which is quite easy for August and September, admittedly unlikely for October), we may well beat 2005's record.

[Dean_175]

This year is pretty promising. But I was also somewhat disappointed in 2010. While it saw 19 named storms, it was suppressed in July-mid August and it came to a fairly sudden end with no late season activity in November. If we had any of those two, we would have exhausted the list. That year saw record high SSTAs in the MDR and significant La Nina; the tropics exploded with activity when the lid finally came off after many weeks of lackluster activity. If only atmospheric conditions were a bit more favorable in July.

Assuming we get Hanna in the next couple days we would still need something like August : 4 storms, September: 5 storms, October : 4 storms November: 1 storm- to reach the Greek letters.

[EquusStorm]

2011 could've gotten us to the Greek letters too with its near constant activity into early September, but after Nate on September 7 everything slowed down dramatically and we only got four more storms... 2012 had nothing in July iirc and nothing in November so also could've gotten us there with only a little extra. Certainly if we KEEP the activity going pretty strong we will probably exhaust most if not all the names on the list

[Chris90]

I'm leaning more towards yes we will reach the Greeks than I am no, we will not. I'm anticipating ASO 2020 to have greater levels of activity than ASO 2005. I think this year has the setup it needs to hit a homerun. We may not be having the same kind of July that 2005 had in regards to ACE generation, but at the same time we have a few days left and Gonzalo has been doing better than most people predicted. Honestly, wouldn't be surprised at this point if Gonzalo beat Emily's record for most intense July hurricane. I'm not predicting that, but it wouldn't shock me at this point. I think 2020 has left me a bit jaded.

So yeah, I've got one foot in the camp for the Greeks and the other foot hovering, but it won't take too much more activity to motivate me to put it down and firmly plant myself in this camp.

If I'm pledging myself to Greek levels of activity, I won't get hazed will I?

[TheStormExpert]

Part of me wants to say yes but part of me no so 50/50 for now. If we continue at the current pace and pick up some near peak season we should have no problem getting there assuming October and November have some storms. I’d like to see it happen again unfortunately.

[FireRat]

Given all the names we've burned through this early season, I'd say YES, it is very doable now.

I originally thought, like many others, that we would see about 19 storms in 2020, and this didn't count all the extras seen thus far (May-June storms). The way it currently looks, we might end up with 8 or 9 names by month's end. Assuming ASON behaves in a normal busy season manner, we could easily get to 22 total storms for this season, so getting to Alpha at least, is likely.

Should current trends change downward in August, I might change my mind lol.
2020 could end up with anywhere between 18 and 25 storms at this rate, so 22 would be the median.

[Blinhart]

Wouldn't be surprised if we set a record for most named storms ever.