ATL: GONZALO - Models

[TheStormExpert]

00z CMC kills Gonzalo once in the Caribbean.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

00z CMC kills Gonzalo once in the Caribbean.

Is shear already high or expected to uptick ???

[Ubuntwo]

00z CMC kills Gonzalo once in the Caribbean.

Is shear already high or expected to uptick ???

The run is totally worthless. Init has this as a 1009mb low with an open circ - not even close

[TheStormExpert]

All the global models have been HORRIBLE with Gonzalo. In a few days we went from nothing to something.

[Jr0d]

Better sampling is needed for the models. Junk in = junk out.

[northjaxpro]

FWIW, 0Z ICON keeps Gonzalo well intact.with his trek across the Caribbean, reaching Cozumel in 180 hours as a 1000 mb TS.

Also , coming behind on its heels, 0Z ICON shows potential Isaias emerging into the Eastern Caribbean and at near hurricane status at 992 mb in 180 hours.

Meanwhile, 00Z NAVGEM shows potential Isaias moving through the Bahamas and approaching the Southeast Florida coast in 174 hours at 996 mb.

[toad strangler]

Better sampling is needed for the models. Junk in = junk out.

They are tools. Not crystal balls. Those who rely too much on modeling and ignored the real signals already have 2020 egg on their face

[Jr0d]

They are tools. Not crystal balls. Those who rely too much on modeling and ignored the real signals already have 2020 egg on their face

Looks like the models are starting to favor Gonzalo going poof and a stronger storm popping up behind him. Climatology does is not on Gonzalo's side. It might be a case of here today gonezo tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

I wonder if this can survive the Caribbean and make it into the Gulf?

[TheProfessor]

So last night's GFS Parallel does something that kind of reminds me of Harvey with Gonzalo. It weakens it back into a depression in the Caribbean(never fully opens up) before re-intensifying it in the northwest Caribbean and then bombs it out in the Gulf of Mexico with a similar track to Harvey. It may be a case of all this storm needs to do is keep a closed center for it be a danger to someone down the road when conditions are more favorable.

(Edit: This is from 0z Wednesday so it's actually from Tuesday night. Data is a bit old, but it was also before Gonzalo had it's big blow up so it may not be totally off. At 18z Thursday it had a 1002 mb low which is pretty close to probably what it is now, so that's actually major props to the Parallel GFS.)

[TheProfessor]

I had to post the early parts of the Parallel GFS runs because it seems to have nailed the current trends of Gonzalo. It makes the run very interesting because so.

[cycloneye]

I had to post the early parts of the Parallel GFS runs because it seems to have nailed the current trends of Gonzalo. It makes the run very interesting because so.

]https://i.imgur.com/wsJK441.gif

Umm, that is very interesting from GFS-P.

[NDG]

I wish the models make up their minds, lol.

[TheStormExpert]

Geez!! The models are surely throwing fits this year!

[PTrackerLA]

Strongest run yet of the euro for Gonzo lol. Let's see if it surives after 72hrs.

[TheProfessor]

Meanwhile yesterday's 6z Parallel GFS keeps Gonzalo as a week wave over the southern Gulf of Mexico. There's a more interesting feature on the run though that Steve has been pointing out in other threads.

[TheProfessor]

Tonight's Icon no longer dissipates Gonzalo and likely has a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean(983 mb storm at the size it shows would likely be enough) before it crosses over into the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian does dissipate the storm, but it forms a new weak low in the southwest Gulf and sends it into Mexico. Even if Gonzalo dissipates to an open wave, we could be watching that energy for a while.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Tonight's Icon no longer dissipates Gonzalo and likely has a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean(983 mb storm at the size it shows would likely be enough) before it crosses over into the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian does dissipate the storm, but it forms a new weak low in the southwest Gulf and sends it into Mexico. Even if Gonzalo dissipates to an open wave, we could be watching that energy for a while.

Would he be renamed to the I or J storm or just keep his G name? Either way, sounds like a Harvey (not necessarily strength) situation could be a small chance