ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks like it still has some organizing to do, it does look better but pressures with it have not fallen since yesterday.

[cainjamin]

Recon is showing that TD8 still has a very broad centre that looks a little elongated N-S. It would really need consistent convection over the centre to pull it tighter which we're not seeing just yet. I think slow improvement over the next 24-36 hours is a good bet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen a little more quickly as it approaches the coast. Obviously very dependent on how the next day or so goes, but I think a low to mid-range TS is still the best bet.

[Aric Dunn]

center reforming that deep in convection will give it much better shot to deepen

[GCANE]

A big slug of 4000 CAPE air is about to get ingested into the CoC.
Convection should fire back up soon.
5000 CAPE is sitting along the TX coast.

[GCANE]

29 mm/hr rain rate.
Getting serious, obviously core is heating up.
Also 32 knot SFMR, in the clear, in the convection.

[wxman57]

It may have a very elongated center, or it is a wave. I don't "buy" the 37-39kt SFMR when FL winds were about 5 kts.

[GCANE]

It may have a very elongated center, or it is a wave. I don't "buy" the 37-39kt SFMR when FL winds were about 5 kts.

Down draft hitting the water.

[Aric Dunn]

new set from SW quad.. hopefully they fly to the east quad.

152430 2514N 09052W 9250 00770 0107 +205 //// 320021 021 027 012 01
152500 2513N 09053W 9248 00772 0108 +211 +211 316014 020 038 022 00
152530 2511N 09054W 9249 00771 0110 +200 //// 318020 021 031 025 05
152600 2510N 09055W 9252 00766 0109 +204 //// 312011 020 041 040 05
152630 2509N 09057W 9249 00776 0110 +210 +210 307014 015 024 007 00
152700 2508N 09058W 9246 00776 0105 +213 //// 303015 017 024 007 01
152730 2507N 09059W 9254 00767 0111 +208 //// 309014 016 028 009 01
152800 2506N 09101W 9247 00776 0108 +210 //// 312015 016 033 010 01
152830 2505N 09102W 9250 00772 0109 +210 +210 315016 017 025 009 00
152900 2504N 09103W 9250 00776 0111 +208 //// 311017 017 022 012 01

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1286323620218888192

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like it was just a reformation and not exacltly borad circ. Deep convection continues to build over the center. wont take long to really get going if the convection continues.

also the SW quad is close to TS strength. the east side will likely have TS winds.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like plenty of FL and SFMR reading on the south side for an upgrade. and likely more to support an upgrade coming shortly.

Also given the convection currently over the center I would wager the next pass shows a much more defined circ. pretty sure it was just a reformation that recon flew through


Say Hello to Hanna soon

[Extratropical94]

Looks like plenty of FL and SFMR reading on the south side for an upgrade. and likely more to support an upgrade coming shortly.

Also given the convection currently over the center I would wager the next pass shows a much more defined circ. pretty sure it was just a reformation that recon flew through


Say Hello to Hanna soon

Personally, I don't think we'll see Hanna during this mission. The 35/34kt FL winds so far support 30kt at the surface and they are peak 10 and 30 second mean winds, not 1-min sustained. IMO we're close but I'd like to see a 40 at flight level before pulling the trigger

[NDG]

Looks like plenty of FL and SFMR reading on the south side for an upgrade. and likely more to support an upgrade coming shortly.

Also given the convection currently over the center I would wager the next pass shows a much more defined circ. pretty sure it was just a reformation that recon flew through


Say Hello to Hanna soon

I agree, plenty of good TS force winds estimated by SFMR to the SW of the CoC.

[GCANE]

30-sec SFMR with reduction factor, in the clear.
35.6 knts

Should see more as the flight progresses

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

GoM is really starting to boil over.
4000 CAPE to the left, 5000 CAPE to the right.
I am stuck in the middle with Hanna.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is one thing in the intensity forecast that gives me pause. If this gets organized it is going to be pushed west, even south of west. That is generally a favorable pattern for RI. We've seen it many times before. I'm not completely sure about the mechanics of it, but storms forced to turn west intensify...sometimes rapidly.

[tailgater]

Yes I would think we likely have higher winds in the East/northeastern quadrant. Probably won’t see any rapid intensification until pressure drops of course, not much of a gradient so far.
Another hot tower firing off next to the center

[cainjamin]

The convection is definitely starting to look a little better this afternoon. Less blobby and more spiral banding then we have seen previously. The westerly winds south of the centre are also pretty brisk which is usually a good sign.

[wxman57]

I will say that this depression looks MUCH more impressive than "55 kt" Gonzalo. It's almost hard to find Gonzalo on satellite. Look for an upgrade to Hanna by the NHC in their next advisory. Bumping winds up to 50 kts at landfall Saturday.