ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

I will say that this depression looks MUCH more impressive than "55 kt" Gonzalo. It's almost hard to find Gonzalo on satellite. Look for an upgrade to Hanna by the NHC in their next advisory. Bumping winds up to 50 kts at landfall Saturday.

The GOM surely doing its magic, a magic that the GFS doens't seem to catch.

[NDG]

With at least 42 hours still left over the warm waters of the GOM and light shear I would not doubt if it makes a run for a Cat 1 before landfall, it is getting organized quicker than I thought

[catskillfire51]

Is there any more recons later today?

[Nimbus]

Even 50 knot winds usually mean firing up the generator and some folks buy their gas at the last minute..
Flooding looks like it might be the primary concern with a slow landfall, Texas has some areas that don't do well with large amounts of rain. We often see dangerous stationary convective banding north of the center with gulf systems. Will be interested to hear what the pros are thinking later today once the models catch up.

[NDG]

From 3 hours ago, growing circulation coverage.

[MississippiWx]

The structure of this storm has improved markedly since this morning. I’d be on high alert in Texas for a stronger than forecast system.

[MGC]

The structure of this storm has improved markedly since this morning. I’d be on high alert in Texas for a stronger than forecast system.

Just what I was thinking. Looking much better on Sat loop. Here in Pass Christian we've had off and on passing tropical showers all morning with an occasional rumble of thunder. Y'all in Texas might start getting ready for a TS.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

TD 8 is coming right along. I have to believe this will be upgraded to Hanna by 5 p.m. advisory, if not sooner. I think this system will t up and organize on its approach to the Texas coast late tomorrow into early Saturday. It has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 tropical cyclone up to landfall.

[loon]

All the guidance i have seen so far today suggest most of the heavy rains will slink south of us here in Houston, which is a good thing as we flood very fast. Is that a correct
assessment of current guidance or did I miss a graphic somewhere?

[supercane4867]

With Douglas racing toward Hawaii and TD8 organizing under low shear environment, we will probably be looking at two hurricanes threatening the US at the same time this weekend.

[SoupBone]

All the guidance i have seen so far today suggest most of the heavy rains will slink south of us here in Houston, which is a good thing as we flood very fast. Is that a correct
assessment of current guidance or did I miss a graphic somewhere?

Currently, yes. 2-4" with some isolated pockets maybe getting up to 6". Scattered power outages possible as well, should the windfield reach us, which for now we're on the extreme edge of.

[sphelps8681]

If this gets to be a hurricane would it not move more North?

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks really good today. Not at all sprawled out, which means we can't rule out a close-to-shore RI.

[GCANE]

This thing is ingesting a massive amount of highly unstable air.
I wouldn't be surprised if this fires off a massive hot tower later this evening once the upper troposphere starts cooling down.

[wxman57]

All the guidance i have seen so far today suggest most of the heavy rains will slink south of us here in Houston, which is a good thing as we flood very fast. Is that a correct
assessment of current guidance or did I miss a graphic somewhere?

Looks like 2-4" across our area. Of course, in any slow-moving thunderstorm, you could see 5-6 inches.

[Aric Dunn]

I hope another plane heads out soon..

[Aric Dunn]

Outflow is becoming increasingly radial..

soon to be Hanna is about to start exploding convection..

[plasticup]

SST 30-31C. Outflow expanding. Circulation tightening. This bomb is armed and ready to explode.

[GCANE]

Outflow is becoming increasingly radial..

soon to be Hanna is about to start exploding convection..

That ULL over FL is mergerig with the TUTT to its east.
Sounds like the poleward outflow channel is kicking in.

[catskillfire51]

I hope another plane heads out soon..

If i'm not mistaken it looks like one just took off