Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

This is the wave the ECMWF, UKMET and ICON develop but GFS does not and will have a favorable atmosphere to develop that will be different that Gonzalo is going thru.



UKMET



ECMWF



ICON



Atlantic will enter next week to a favorable phase that will allow this wave to bloosom.

[SFLcane]

Long-range Euro model bringing this AEW towards the Bahamas.

[SconnieCane]

Right over Shredderola.

Of course this is all conjecture since the cyclone might not even exist at that point or take anything close to that track, but if it does, at least if it keeps moving and gets past Hispaniola before the core is totally destroyed, it should be able to regain some intensity.

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see if the GFS finally latches onto this as it has emerged from Africa. Assuming TD #8 becomes Hanna this will get the infamous “I” name Isaias which was the replacement name for Ike in 2008 and has never been used.

[gatorcane]

It doesn’t look like a wave that is going to develop as a Cape Verde storm. The SAL has got the upper half of the wave. Without any support from the GFS and waning support from the CMC, best to lean with climo and say no development. Perhaps it may find some favorable conditions down the road in 8-10 days. Bears watching but just a few weeks too early out there:

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[jfk08c]

It doesn’t look like a wave that is going to develop as a Cape Verde storm. The SAL has got the upper half of the wave. Without any support from the GFS and waning support from the CMC, best to lean with climo and say no development. Perhaps it may find some favorable conditions down the road in 8-10 days. Bears watching but just a few weeks too early out there:

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

There is a pocket between 40W and 25W that this wave could sneak into and possibly sustain itself in. Give the GFS some time. The fact that multiple models suggest this getting pretty far in longitude should indicate there might be something there.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has this monster approaching me. But is not one of the big models.

[CyclonicFury]

Add the 12z UKMET to the development bandwagon. Remember this is likely going to be a large wave and is unlikely to consolidate before 50W. At the moment, the GFS is somewhat of an outlier.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 144 13.6N 59.3W 1006 33

[cycloneye]

Add the 12z UKMET to the development bandwagon. Remember this is likely going to be a large wave and is unlikely to consolidate before 50W. At the moment, the GFS is somewhat of an outlier.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.0N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 144 13.6N 59.3W 1006 33

Agreed. Is going to be one of those like 2005 that formed more west. Please,I am not saying 2020 will be like 2005 in terms of numbers.

[TallyTracker]

Is cyclonegenesis predicted before the end of July? It looked like July 29. If so, we could have Isaias before the end of July...truly remarkable! And it would be another MDR storm no less.

[gatorcane]

The CMC drops development completely. Let’s see if the Euro does too or at least starts trending away from development. Either way development of this wave anytime soon looks unlikely due to unfavorable conditions.

[Shell Mound]

One can already see that the past three runs of the EPS have been steadily trending toward a blockier, less progressive pattern by day seven, with extensive riding over the Sargasso Sea and a shortwave trough possibly cutting off near the Great Lakes. If a well-defined, organised system were to be present near the northeastern Caribbean by that time, then the overall setup would favour a definite threat to the East Coast at the very least. A probable track would pass over or near the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico and/or the easternmost tip of Hispaniola, the latter of which is considerably flatter and less mountainous than the interior, implying less weakening due to interaction with Hispaniola. Then the track would likely curve north-northwestward across the Turks and Caicos Islands toward the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and/or southwestern New England. This is definitely something to watch, pending development, of course.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move
westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the
western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Just like that.. mentioned in the TWO. This is one to watch folks.

[cycloneye]

Just like that.. mentioned in the TWO. This is one to watch folks.

Yes indeed.

[supercane4867]

12z euro continues to show development.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 168 hours intensifying and heading W to WNW, entering Hebert Box.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1286369708615376898

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1286369708615376898

[gatorcane]

“I” storms are usually not nice

Heading towards Puerto Rico. Luis?