ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#481 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:14 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2020 Time : 192024 UTC
Lat : 26:30:14 N Lon : 91:14:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1002.5mb/ 35.0kt


Hi, Hanna.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#482 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:18 pm

Obs near the center have still not topped 20 kts all day. It's very close to that station just NW of the center, as evidence by the 1007.8mb pressure. Only 20kt winds, though. Still has a ways to go as far as developing a core. Earlier, I thought that the NHC might upgrade it next hour. Not sure now. Predicting landfall just north of CRP with 50 kts late Saturday morning. Not much for us in Houston. I'll be working this weekend, anyway...

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#483 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:21 pm

dantonlsu wrote:Wondering how much / if any of the convection to the right eventually wraps up & makes its way to Houston.


From what I’ve been seeing on the models lately is that it looks like the dirty side of the storm will be on the south side of it instead of the north. So southeast Texas might not see much?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#484 Postby LSU Saint » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:22 pm

Living in Houston also. Curious to see how much rain we get here
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#485 Postby wx98 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:26 pm

If they decide to wait and not name it in a few minutes, then I’ve gotta believe that on the current trend it will be Hanna before midnight.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#486 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:28 pm

Houston weather today has been absolutely awesome. Windy and not overbearingly hot.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#487 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:28 pm

We need an ascat
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#488 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:30 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:We need an ascat

We had one earlier, showed maximum winds of about 25-30 knots. NHC will likely wait for more conclusive data before naming 08L TS Hanna, since we have recon on plan for the system.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#489 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:31 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:We need an ascat

We had one earlier, showed maximum winds of about 25-30 knots. NHC will likely wait for more conclusive data before naming 08L TS Hanna, since we have recon on plan for the system.

Why do recons like starting flights right after the advisories lol.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#490 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:32 pm

LSU Saint wrote:Living in Houston also. Curious to see how much rain we get here


You can have all my rain. At least 2" at my house already and still raining in SW Florida. :grr:
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#491 Postby psyclone » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Fun system?

psyclone wrote:Eight is looking....great. WPC has lots of QPF for coastal areas from Mobile bay westward so lots of convective ticket cashing incoming. Hopefully the Texas crew has a fun system with needed rain and a break from the heat. We got boatloads on my side of the gulf and the humans and frogs are plenty happy.


correct. I know we're supposed to pretend that we don't want any weather action despite being weather fanatics. I don't do that. I enjoy low end tropical systems and other cool (and cooling) weather events. Here's to hoping for more benefit than harm. And yes...sit on the porch with some cold ones and enjoy..
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#492 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:32 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:We need an ascat


we need recon.. we have one buoy with dropping pressure 2mb lower than when recon was there.. and found TS winds..

there was the beginnings of a core building this morning and it has only become much much more organized.

low shear, bath water, NW gulf ( notorious), and easterly outflow channel.

saying it is not a TS is just absolute silliness.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#493 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:33 pm

abk_0710 wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
exactly.. then it starts moving north then NW then BOOM>.

Sounds about right


Explain please.


Center of Circulation forming between the two big convective blobs.
The tower if continues rotating as Aric describes will build the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#494 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:34 pm

This will.likely be a case where we see this system ramp up and try to intensify right to the time of its approach to landfall late Fridsy into Saturday.
Do not let your guard down with this system for those of you along the South Texas coast!
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#495 Postby Senobia » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:36 pm

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#496 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:37 pm

Has a good structure. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ramps up a bit more than expected. Wouldn't go as far as to say it'll become a hurricane.

Image
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#497 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:37 pm

GCANE wrote:
abk_0710 wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Sounds about right


Explain please.


Center of Circulation forming between the two big convective blobs.
The tower if continues rotating as Aric describes will build the eyewall.


BTW, the area between the blobs is where I saw a big 4000 CAPE reading earlier today.
That tower is spinning with a ton of helicity and not dissipating.
Its on.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#498 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:42 pm

CAPE is going ballistic around this thing now.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#499 Postby mcallum177 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:44 pm

KATP is up to 24 knots but this buoy doesn't report pressure from what I can tell. We need a new report from 42395 the data is an hour old.

EDIT: 42395 just sent in 20:00 data 21.4 knots gusting to 25 and pressure is 29.75.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search ... t=A&time=2
Last edited by mcallum177 on Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#500 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:46 pm

:lol: I knee what you meant, just yanking your chain.


psyclone wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Fun system?

psyclone wrote:Eight is looking....great. WPC has lots of QPF for coastal areas from Mobile bay westward so lots of convective ticket cashing incoming. Hopefully the Texas crew has a fun system with needed rain and a break from the heat. We got boatloads on my side of the gulf and the humans and frogs are plenty happy.


correct. I know we're supposed to pretend that we don't want any weather action despite being weather fanatics. I don't do that. I enjoy low end tropical systems and other cool (and cooling) weather events. Here's to hoping for more benefit than harm. And yes...sit on the porch with some cold ones and enjoy..
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