2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[supercane4867]

Isaias and Josephine(?)

[TheDreamTraveler]

One thing that caught my attention this year on modeling is tropical storms Bertha and Fay on the east coast. They both made very bizarre and odd tracks climatologically very early in the season. Bertha went northwest into South Carolina and Fay hugged the mid atlantic coast and shot due north into NJ/NY and the northeast. Not only is that rare in general but even rarer in early July and not only happened once but twice. Normally these storms don't make landfall and move northeast away from land. My point is it gives you a potential hint of the overall pattern for this year. We also had other storms already strike the Gulf coast as well. So it doesn't surprise me that we're seeing african waves this early in the season striking the gulf and east coasts already.

Another thing too is we're at record pace for named storms even beating out 2005. The problem with that though is this is still no 2005 because the ACE of 2005 is unparalleled to anything before it including this year despite having more named storms already. The fact we have so many storms forming will increase the chances of potential landfalls too given the pattern is right to steer them close to the US coast. Just felt like sharing these observations lol

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure exactly what the catalyst is but quite a few models are showing another spin up in the Gulf behind future Hannah, early next week. Icon, Cmc, Ukmethttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/96060e947f7a1d59cd492b1535a695b5.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/9bba7ead4287e9addff7d8f693d2fd74.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200723/ca14494e8e0874d68801cd68ee2cb3ad.jpg

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Steve has been alluding to this. Meanwhile here's yesterday's 6z Parallel GFS that just came out.

https://i.imgur.com/2VoBpc9.gif

Part of me want to attribute this to convective feedback(especially in the case above) but multiple models falling prey to that would be weird. Definitely something interesting and any leftover energy will need to be watched.

I didn't think to check the parallel. I agree, quite a few models showing this feature in some form in the Gulf in the 3 to 5 day range. Something to keep an eye on...

[TheProfessor]

What do you mean?

Ah, it's a show, there is a character that shows up named Josephine, a real lunatic really. I don't want to spoil though.

Which show, never seen it?

The show is called The 100. It's on TheCW. Currently it's in the last season. It's on Netflix and is a pretty good watch, starts off a bit as a teen drama, but really finds its footing in the second season.

[TheStormExpert]

Ah, it's a show, there is a character that shows up named Josephine, a real lunatic really. I don't want to spoil though.

Which show, never seen it?

The show is called The 100. It's on TheCW. Currently it's in the last season. It's on Netflix and is a pretty good watch, starts off a bit as a teen drama, but really finds its footing in the second season.

Oh thanks! I might try watching it if I get some time.

[aspen]

I think we might have to worry about something in the Gulf or western Caribbean in the next 1-2 weeks. The CMC tries to redevelop Gonzalo in the Bay of Campeche, ICON shows Gonzalo surviving into the Caribbean, and both the ICON and ECMWF still show a low-rider developing from that vigorous AEW. It’s possible “future Isaias” could take a track comparable to storms like Emily and Allen, although most of the Euro ensembles pull it north through the Greater Antilles and into the region around the Bahamas.

[Cpv17]

I think we might have to worry about something in the Gulf or western Caribbean in the next 1-2 weeks. The CMC tries to redevelop Gonzalo in the Bay of Campeche, ICON shows Gonzalo surviving into the Caribbean, and both the ICON and ECMWF still show a low-rider developing from that vigorous AEW. It’s possible “future Isaias” could take a track comparable to storms like Emily and Allen, although most of the Euro ensembles pull it north through the Greater Antilles and into the region around the Bahamas.

When storms are emerging off the coast of Africa I’ve noticed many times models want to take them north way too quickly, even many times curving them ots but models adjust back west with time.

[TheProfessor]

This feature in the northern Gulf that's been showing up on some of the models needs to be watched. You can see it on the 12z NAM and the 6z HWRF-P. It could steal the I name, but even if it's unnamed, it could cause problems for areas on the northern coast that are already getting rain from Hanna.

[Cpv17]

After 92L there doesn’t seem to be much to talk about on the models, but I doubt that holds true as models are really struggling to forecast genesis this year. I see the wave train over Africa is looking pretty good. There’s currently a very strong wave over Nigeria.

[869MB]

After 92L there doesn’t seem to be much to talk about on the models, but I doubt that holds true as models are really struggling to forecast genesis this year. I see the wave train over Africa is looking pretty good. There’s currently a very strong wave over Nigeria.

GFS Parallel shows this feature at Hour 336...This is a long way of out of course. It appears to ultimately track the feature WSW into Mexico strengthing as it does so. Ironically very similar to the west-southwestly turn of Hanna.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing much higher than normal shear over the entire SW Atlantic, Bahamas, Florida, and Gulf at least through the next week:

[AJC3]

Polite reminder: If there's an area of disturbed weather you wish to discuss, by all means, feel free to start a thread on it. If you want to talk about seasonal conditions, etc., there's another thread for that. Let's keep this thread on-topic (i.e. about model guidance through day 16). I had to delete a solid page worth of OT posts.

Thanks.

[aspen]

I think we might need to keep an eye on that tropical wave in the central MDR. The GFS, Euro, GFS-Para, and ICON all hint at a weak TC developing from it in a few days. It recurves without hitting the Lesser Antilles or US East Coast, but it might get close to Bermuda.

[Hurricaneman]

I think we might need to keep an eye on that tropical wave in the central MDR. The GFS, Euro, GFS-Para, and ICON all hint at a weak TC developing from it in a few days. It recurves without hitting the Lesser Antilles or US East Coast, but it might get close to Bermuda.

Definitely need to watch that system as the models have been atrocious at picking out development this year and this could be underestimated

[CyclonicFury]

GFS is now developing the wave behind 93L in about 5-6 days.

[St0rmTh0r]

GFS is now developing the wave behind 93L in about 5-6 days.

And the wave party continues

[EquusStorm]

GFS also wants the wave between 93L and Isaias to briefly close off NE of the Antilles now in addition to that post-93L wave... whiiich it wants to make a dangerous looking low latitude hurricane into the Caribbean

Not that GFS medium range tropical cyclogenesis has been anywhere close to good lately but still, good lord

[cycloneye]

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288877819670466561

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/cIf7F7P.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uEzUBek.gif

I'm on this one

FYI in Martinique a statue of former French imperor Josephine (Napoleon Bonaparte's spouse) has been brought down by some people last week. She was born in Martinique.

The next name on the list is... Josephine