ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Really I'd say conditons in the MDR have been relatively decent since 2017 with the exception of all the dry air, Lorenzo just last year being an absolute monster of a storm for instance

[RT23]

Gonzalo may hang on. Still come convection around the center and the latest Euro keeps it intact.

https://media.giphy.com/media/KfI14vdKJHe43636Lw/giphy.gif

Looks almost he is trying to restack vertically

[AutoPenalti]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

One storm does not hint at any future developments, let alone show signs of the soon to be favorable MDR.

[MississippiWx]

Gonzalo may hang on. Still come convection around the center and the latest Euro keeps it intact.

https://media.giphy.com/media/KfI14vdKJHe43636Lw/giphy.gif

Looks almost he is trying to restack vertically

This. I think there was some unforecast shear that helped dry air intrude and partially decoupled it. The structure is looking way better this afternoon. It also looks like it has moistened up its environment again through collapsing convection. We will see.

[sma10]

This might be a sign that 2020 will be the latest consecutive season where the MDR is unfavorable and everything struggles until it gets elsewhere. The whole area south of 20N has been very unfavorable since 2010, with 2017 really being the exception.

And the usual caveat that this is not good news for landmasses, as later tropical formation increases landfall threat.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just when I had written Gonzo off it looks like he is trying to make a little bit of a comeback. Convection firing and expanded over center some now. Remains to be seen if it sustains but man those systems that spawn from 99Ls are fighters I'm tellin ya.

[USTropics]

Gonzalo would also like to remind us he is not dead. When Gonzalo was essentially decapitated last night, it actually may have been beneficial to its survival. Not only did it provide a decent buffer, but the leftover convective mass (red) is now embedded in the general cyclonic flow of Gonzalo, which is rotating towards the exact location that RH values are lowest at (and where the dry air entrainment has occurred). In addition, you can really see Gonzalo trying to tap into the moisture stream from SA (blue). Previous inflow from the decapitated upper-level circulation (purple) will also provide another source of inflow soon:

[Evil Jeremy]

Gonzalo may hang on. Still come convection around the center and the latest Euro keeps it intact.

https://media.giphy.com/media/KfI14vdKJHe43636Lw/giphy.gif

Very vigorous. Looks like the kind of system that would explode overnight if it had just marginally favorable conditions.

[northjaxpro]

Gonzalo would also like to remind us he is not dead. When Gonzalo was essentially decapitated last night, it actually may have been beneficial to its survival. Not only did it provide a decent buffer, but the leftover convective mass (red) is now embedded in the general cyclonic flow of Gonzalo, which is rotating towards the exact location that RH values are lowest at (and where the dry air entrainment has occurred). In addition, you can really see Gonzalo trying to tap into the moisture stream from SA (blue). Previous inflow from the decapitated upper-level circulation (purple) will also provide another source of inflow soon:

https://i.imgur.com/cMoMDW7.png

https://i.ibb.co/WgtQPQW/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

The leftover convective mass that broke off from Gonzalo definitely has been a key element. I agree with you US Tropics in that area has helped to maintain tor help to seal the moisture envelope of the cyclone this afternoon. It has helped to "wall.off" the SAL during the past 6-8 hours.

These tiny cyclones are fascinating to analyze and indeed can be very confounding and maddening when they can collapse just as quickly as they can ramp up. 2020 has been almost a synoptic master class being displayed by Mother Nature on how these small cyclones evolve.

This is why I was very adament earlier to those who were so eager to write this cyclone's eulogy or talking about a Bones appearance. Never say never in the tropics with any significant vorticity, no matter the size. These tiny storms have their own unique elements and they create an environment of their own in a sense. Hurricane Danny in 2015 really for me is the classic case to refer to on how these tiny cyclones evolve and how they ramp up or degrade just as quickly due to adverse conditions i.e. SAL shear.

[EquusStorm]

LLC really cranking again as visible starts to fade, definitely has one more shot to cycle up. Dust is still lurking but maybe its little pocket has indeed safeguarded itself after last night's debacle. We'll see...

[USTropics]

Looks like a period of strengthening is underway (those gravity waves at the beginning of the loop radiating outwards are a result of a sudden burst of convective activity):

[EquusStorm]

NHC lowers peak to 65kt and explicitly shows dissipation at end of 5 days. No change in current intensity. Seems pretty reasonable.

[Do_For_Love]

yep, he's making a bit of comeback, at least for now. Still has time to ramp up to cat 1 before reaching clearly hostile conditions. Obviously very tough to predict whether that will happen or not though.

[EquusStorm]

Another big tower and seems significantly more symmetrical with an actual slightly curved look rather than the pulsing blob with an LLC we had earlier - absolutely might make a run for it if it doesn't manage to suck in another big swath of dust

[Visioen]

Still improving, with some pink now.

[supercane4867]

It's not letting up at all tonight.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

It's not letting up at all tonight.

What’s not letting up

[Visioen]

It just looks so tiny. A general lack of moisture I suppose.

[TheProfessor]

Tonight might be do or die with Gonzalo, if it can't reorganize into a good core tonight, it may never happen. I still think for this to have any chance of surviving the Caribbean it needs to enter it as an organized hurricane. If it enters the Caribbean at its current state it will likely dissipate into an open wave.

[supercane4867]

It's not letting up at all tonight.

What’s not letting up

I was talking about the convection activity of the system.