ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

And to think, she still has all day tomorrow to get even stronger, yikes!

Both HWRF and HMON strengthen this until landfall occurs sometime on Saturday so that’s plenty of time over very warm water.

[toad strangler]

And to think, she still has all day tomorrow to get even stronger, yikes!

Both HWRF and HMON strengthen this until landfall occurs sometime on Saturday so that’s plenty of time over very warm water.

The last two models I'd look at for intensity forecasting. But, this year feels different. Will be interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Come on Miss Piggy Radar

Is there anywhere we can still get the radar images from the noaa plane ? we used to be able to on atlantic recon.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Wonder how the strengthening will affect the overall track

I was also wondering this.

From what I've seen, a stronger system will be able to travel slightly further north before landfall - seems like regardless of where this occurs, the system will then head WSW.

Not many models are picking up on this being incredibly strong, and we still need to wait for recon before jumping the gun.

[Highteeld]

Best looking TD I have ever seen. Would guess 45 mph or so for the next recon mission.

[GCANE]

Come on Miss Piggy Radar

Is there anywhere we can still get the radar images from the noaa plane ? we used to be able to on atlantic recon.

That's the only place I know of.

[GCANE]

Wonder how the strengthening will affect the overall track

I was also wondering this.

From what I've seen, a stronger system will be able to travel slightly further north before landfall - seems like regardless of where this occurs, the system will then head WSW.

Not many models are picking up on this being incredibly strong, and we still need to wait for recon before jumping the gun.

I noted this a few days ago.
Somehow the models are being fed with totally bogus data.
I compared current GFS conditions with multiple observations and it was way off for many parameters.
Forget the models.

[ozonepete]

Anti-cyclone right on top of this.
Its all there, spinning up.

https://i.imgur.com/JaIvz83.gif

Yes, GCANE, this chart plus your other recent comments about outflow are on the money. You can see the outflow developing rapidly in almost all quadrants now if you watch the visible loops. It's that upper level venting with no inhibition at the lower levels plus good mid-level RH that will get this ramping really fast tonight. RI is quite possible. Hurricane is quite possible now.

Much thanks Ozonepete. I hope all is well with you and you and your family are staying healthy.

Thanks! Always good to "see" you here. All is well here and I hope the same with you.

Back on topic, this one bothers me because it has both the ingredients necessary for RI and that "look" of a storm about to explode. One is the pure science and the other is more gut. Hope I'm wrong on both counts.

[SoupBone]

I was also wondering this.

From what I've seen, a stronger system will be able to travel slightly further north before landfall - seems like regardless of where this occurs, the system will then head WSW.

Not many models are picking up on this being incredibly strong, and we still need to wait for recon before jumping the gun.

I noted this a few days ago.
Somehow the models are being fed with totally bogus data.
I compared current GFS conditions with multiple observations and it was way off for many parameters.
Forget the models.

This is a very loaded statement. You have proof of this?

[GCANE]

Yes, GCANE, this chart plus your other recent comments about outflow are on the money. You can see the outflow developing rapidly in almost all quadrants now if you watch the visible loops. It's that upper level venting with no inhibition at the lower levels plus good mid-level RH that will get this ramping really fast tonight. RI is quite possible. Hurricane is quite possible now.

Much thanks Ozonepete. I hope all is well with you and you and your family are staying healthy.

Thanks! Always good to "see" you here. All is well here and I hope the same with you.

Back on topic, this one bothers me because it has both the ingredients necessary for RI and that "look" of a storm about to explode. One is the pure science and the other is more gut. Hope I'm wrong on both counts.

All well with me - much thanks.
Same thoughts as you. Gut and science.

[GCANE]

From what I've seen, a stronger system will be able to travel slightly further north before landfall - seems like regardless of where this occurs, the system will then head WSW.

Not many models are picking up on this being incredibly strong, and we still need to wait for recon before jumping the gun.

I noted this a few days ago.
Somehow the models are being fed with totally bogus data.
I compared current GFS conditions with multiple observations and it was way off for many parameters.
Forget the models.

This is a very loaded statement. You have proof of this?

Yes, there was graphics I posted. I'll try and dig it up, it should be with 99L.

[Stormcenter]

Well if this does end up blowing up into
a significant storm then I guess that’s what
happens when you treat everything the models
spit out as the gospel.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Finding 1006-1007 pressures. Not at center yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Well if this does end up blowing up into
a significant storm then I guess that’s what
happens when you treat everything the models
spit out as the gospel.

Its bound to happen every so often.. it has happened before and will continue to happen for a long time..

Whats the saying... you better check yourself before you wreck yourself lol

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Depression 08L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2020 Time : 222024 UTC
Lat : 26:09:04 N Lon : 90:52:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.7mb/ 45.0kt

[Aric Dunn]

I noted this a few days ago.
Somehow the models are being fed with totally bogus data.
I compared current GFS conditions with multiple observations and it was way off for many parameters.
Forget the models.

This is a very loaded statement. You have proof of this?

Yes, there was graphics I posted. I'll try and dig it up, it should be with 99L.

it has been a real problem especially since the virus crap started.

[zhukm29]

The models do rely on data from commercial flights, so it makes sense they are struggling a bit more than usual because of COVID.

Why did it have to be this year though...

[SoupBone]

The models do rely on data from commercial flights, so it makes sense they are struggling a bit more than usual because of COVID.

Why did it have to be this year though...

That makes more sense than being fed bogus data though. Not enough data could be a real issue.

[tarheelprogrammer]

How is this not a TS lord have mercy what does it have to look like.

[GCANE]

85-92GHz satellite radar about an hour ago.
Core starting to form