ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#581 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:07 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Well if this does end up blowing up into
a significant storm then I guess that’s what
happens when you treat everything the models
spit out as the gospel.


model huggers are the worst
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#582 Postby mcallum177 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:12 pm

That 42395 buoy is at 29.72 pressure and 19 knot winds.

Some others near by are from the low 20s to upper 20s knots.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#583 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:12 pm

multiple towers from SW to NE quads.. only side lef it the NW..

crazy good structure so far. assuming nothing interrupts this trend.. hurricane by morning would be easy.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#584 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:multiple towers from SW to NE quads.. only side lef it the NW..

crazy good structure so far. assuming nothing interrupts this trend.. hurricane by morning would be easy.


It’s possible
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#585 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:17 pm

GCANE wrote:85-92GHz satellite radar about an hour ago.
Core starting to form

https://i.imgur.com/A9YqYl7.png

If that evolves to a full core this thing will take off as there’s pretty much nothing hindering it and a hurricane would be much more likely.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#586 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:18 pm

recon showing same pressure as earlier except over 100 miles away from the center..

I bet the center is down to near 1000mb.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#587 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:19 pm

Convection starting to fire NW of the center. Might help develop that inner core where its a little weaker

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#588 Postby Highteeld » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:20 pm

Main takeaway --> TD8's mid level and low level centers are better stacked than HWRF had forecast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo
[Youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=666&v=O05efGn9wAY&feature=emb_logo[/Youtube]
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#589 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:21 pm

by the time recon leaves ( assuming they do a full flight) I bet pressure drops to low to mid 990s..
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#590 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:by the time recon leaves ( assuming they do a full flight) I bet pressure drops to low to mid 990s..


Yea they haven't had much luck getting in full flights. This one is a NOAA plane this time.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#591 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:27 pm

At buoy 42395 the surface pressure has been steadily falling so the broader area of 1006 mb pressure is starting to deepen, I'd guess maybe 1000 mb before they leave.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#592 Postby Texashawk » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:28 pm

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

Seriously? This is a depression?!?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#593 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:30 pm

Recon so far and area buoys are indicating pressures have fallen at least 3-4 mb since the last recon plane earlier.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#594 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:31 pm

Texashawk wrote:https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20202052316_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg

Seriously? This is a depression?!?


She blew up!!
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#595 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:33 pm

Texashawk wrote:https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20202052316_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg

Seriously? This is a depression?!?


Starting to get that look that Gonazlo had what, 36h ago when everyone was scratching their heads wondering why the heck it wasn't named yet; only larger.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#596 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:33 pm

Seems like convection is starting to wane a bit
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#597 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:34 pm

Texashawk wrote:https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20202052316_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg

Seriously? This is a depression?!?

Best Tropical Depression I’ve ever seen! And I’m sure we’ve heard that a lot over the years. But seriously I’m surprised it’s not named yet.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#598 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:34 pm

Come on Hanna be born.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#599 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:36 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Seems like convection is starting to wane a bit

diurnal min time
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#600 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:36 pm

i see some overshooting tops/towers popping on the NW side. that will make it a closed eyewall in the low and mid levels.
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