ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

It just looks so tiny. A general lack of moisture I suppose.

https://i.imgur.com/WDaHEfj.jpg

He's got a face!

[cainjamin]

It just looks so tiny. A general lack of moisture I suppose.

https://i.imgur.com/WDaHEfj.jpg

He's got a face!

Looks like Squidward a little bit

[EquusStorm]

Bless his heart he tryin'. Now or never probably, if it avoids total collapse tonight probably has a shot if the LLC is still really vigorous, but not fully convinced yet it's able to completely avoid ALL the dust and stable air not too far out of reach

[hurricanes1234]

It just looks so tiny. A general lack of moisture I suppose.

https://i.imgur.com/WDaHEfj.jpg

He's got a face!

Looks like Squidward a little bit

Better yet, it looks like his house.

[northjaxpro]

Bless his heart he tryin'. Now or never probably, if it avoids total collapse tonight probably has a shot if the LLC is still really vigorous, but not fully convinced yet it's able to completely avoid ALL the dust and stable air not too far out of reach

If I would not know any better or is Gonzalo re-establishing his inner core currently? Looks like an eye feature on IR imagery. Seeing some deep very cold tops within the tiny CDO. I am loving this little guy lol...

[Visioen]

I like how the central convection is very continuous now. Not pulsing at all.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah looks like the CDO is basically back, pretty cold and lotsa lightning. Gonna be fun to watch this one overnight.

[ColdMiser123]

I like how the central convection is very continuous now. Not pulsing at all.

Certainly the best satellite depiction all day for Gonzalo at this point. Which has implications for the Windward Islands, but after that I would still heavily favor dissipation. Before then, I wouldn't be surprised to see more notable swings in intensity going forward with such a small circulation.

[ElectricStorm]

Seems to have been able to recover from his disastrous night last night. Now we see if he get going tonight without falling apart again

[CyclonicFury]

ASCAT suggests Gonzalo may be significantly weaker than estimated. I cannot even find any 30+ kt barbs on this pass. However, ASCAT is likely to miss the strongest winds in a storm as small as Gonzalo - but this seems a bit extreme.

[supercane4867]

It would take a lot of recovery effort to get anywhere close to hurricane intensity for sure.

[AutoPenalti]

Still looks like a blob, it has a while to go. Winds will lag with pressure.

[floridasun78]

maybe is td or open wave if their no center

[CyclonicFury]

maybe is td or open wave if their no center

The center definitely still appears to be well defined.

[EquusStorm]

Kept at 50kt and says better organized, NHC gone from conservative to perhaps a bit bullish haha. It certainly looks better organized but not sure we have 50kt again juuust yet. Guess we'll have to watch trends

[SapphireSea]

Looks like a sharp trough to me. Perhaps a reformation may be happening as convection builds on west and north. Very small systems like this open up and close in a short time frames. Models seem to think its going to have dry air and severe shear in carrib, I think its likely dead after the islands.

[Chris90]

Kept at 50kt and says better organized, NHC gone from conservative to perhaps a bit bullish haha. It certainly looks better organized but not sure we have 50kt again juuust yet. Guess we'll have to watch trends

I feel bad for them kind of because some of us enthusiasts can be a critical bunch at times (myself included.) Small storms like this can have rapid swings in intensity, which they've mentioned, but they have to maintain some consistency and can't swing wildly because they have to be responsible and warn the public. I'm sure internally they've had plenty of conversations with their own thoughts on intensity swings that they can't publicly discuss because people will rapidly sway with every little change in what way the wind blows, or in this case, every little change with how fast Gonzalo's winds blow. Their number one duty is to make sure the public gets the best information possible and is prepared for how bad a storm could potentially be, I think they do a really good job.
Also, I just want to note, I'm not trying to single you out by quoting you, I just wanted to comment on how difficult and frustrating it must be at times for them with these small storms and they have to maintain some consistency. Gonzalo I'm sure has given them a few fits.

I personally think Gonzalo has already hit hurricane status earlier in his life during his big upswing and is now struggling a bit to keep himself together. This may be the start of another upswing though and the next 12-24 hours will definitely remain interesting.

I know there's a chance he could dissipate or open back into a wave, but even then, I'll keep an eye on him. Harvey opened back up into a wave at one point, but it didn't stop him from going bonkers a few days later.

[EquusStorm]

No I don't envy having to forecast these at all, with the wild swings tiny systems can bring; the NHC really can't safely forecast wild swings from one advisory to the next and that sometimes makes them seem way too high or low with their forecasts, but in the end they're usually right on the money. If they're too high with it now, they can lower it in post analysis, but a case can certainly be made for that intensity AND officially writing it off if not would probably not induce much urgency from those under hurricane watches. High stakes difficult job they got

[tiger_deF]

I think some of you have written off Gordon too early, he's been drowning in dry air for the past few days and he is firing his deepest convection in days and appears to be steadily organizing. Watch out for this one, I have a feeling he may surprise again

[MarioProtVI]

I think some of you have written off Gordon too early, he's been drowning in dry air for the past few days and he is firing his deepest convection in days and appears to be steadily organizing. Watch out for this one, I have a feeling he may surprise again

Stuck in 2018 I suppose?