2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285966707853602817



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285975846172397568



 https://twitter.com/tvwotw/status/1285982763741589505



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1285937647148359693

[supercane4867]

July is the new September.

[BYG Jacob]

So much for that downwelling Kelvin Wave

[Dean_175]

Here's Mark Sudduth's take.
(For those who may not know, he's a fellow S2Ker! )

Sudduth mentions that signals are overwhelming and that even aside form the 2nd half of August through October ... that November could be busy.... interesting.

I agree that August through October will be quite busy but November being busy is a wild card. Typically we only see 1-2 named storms in November, not to mention everyone expected things to be quite active well into October and November 2017 only for that to not really materialize.

Yeah. 2010 would have EASILY been a Greek letter season if we had one or two November storms that year and if atmospheric conditions weren't so unfavorable in July-mid August 2010. Water temperatures were record warm in the MDR and the season exploded when the cap came off right before Danielle formed. 2010 was the most promising season in recent memory in terms of sea surface temperature profile (warm MDR and strong La Nina). NOAA's early forecast that year called for up to 23 named storms (iirc).

[toad strangler]

So much for that downwelling Kelvin Wave

Ventrice not too happy happy happy

[TheStormExpert]

July is the new September.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73941e2e7532c213ac82777d50ed8c880b3ec2cd7b947c6c98cd5b4839e7c8eb.png

And to think this is the Suppressed phase of the Kelvin Wave.

[Evan_Wilson]

I truly don’t believe that the lid has been removed off just yet. This is just the water leaking from a faucet, the sink hasn’t been turned on yet.

[galaxy401]

I think the most insane part is that there is a solid chance we could see the I name, which typically forms in September, develop before we are even in August. If that happens, the end of the naming list is seriously likely.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the most insane part is that there is a solid chance we could see the I name, which typically forms in September, develop before we are even in August. If that happens, the end of the naming list is seriously likely.

If the ECMWF is right, we could pass 2014 in named storms before August 1. Crazy.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the most insane part is that there is a solid chance we could see the I name, which typically forms in September, develop before we are even in August. If that happens, the end of the naming list is seriously likely.

If the ECMWF is right, we could pass 2014 in named storms before August 1. Crazy.

Coincidentally 2014 had the same name list with no names retired and we only got through the name Hanna which didn’t form until late-October.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1286300036306018308

[toad strangler]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1286300036306018308

Good Lord

[FireRat]

Look at how Douglas went into beastmode in the EPAC...
It's only a matter of time before we begin seeing these buzz saws tearing through the Atlantic!

Our July MDR storm happened, and to top it off, so far it almost is a carbon copy of 2017 Don. The 2017 similarly continues thus far, so August should be very interesting indeed. Perhaps this year, the hurricane action begins a couple of weeks earlier than it did in Aug 2017 too.

[Hammy]

CFS showing practically nothing until the last few days of August, followed by two storms, and then a lull (as far as development at least) and then another burst in mid-September, developing pretty much every single tropical wave back to back for about a month.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1286415435026505728




 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286394605920030729

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1286427999399706626

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1286470310842245120

[supercane4867]

July 23rd of 2020

[aspen]

Irene ‘05 is next up on the chopping block. There’s no way 2020 is going to let her hold onto her record at this pace.

[Chris90]

Current indicators suggest July 20th was the bell ringing this year instead of August 20th. Off to the races we go.